Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

Suicide and self-harm in Britain: researching risk and resilience using UK surveys

Aim The main aim of this study was to raise awareness of surveys that could be used to inform self-harm and suicide prevention work. We asked: What UK survey datasets are available for research? What aspects of people’s lives are associated with self-harm and attempted suicide? How do statistical findings resonate with people’s lived experience? What implications do they see? Findings Survey analyses revealed that risk factors for self-harm are wide ranging and include: Mental health Physical health and health behaviours Social relationships Stressful events Employment and financial circumstances Identity and demographics Many different factors are independently associated with self-harm. There is a dose relationship, with more exposure to a factor linked with increased risk. Risks are cumulative that is, exposure to multiple factors is associated with greater risk. Through facilitated consultation, men with lived experience, bereaved family members, and practitioners identified recommendations for responding to suicidal distress in men. These related to the following three main areas: 1. Recognising need: who is ‘ill enough’? Permission - men said that they often did not know they were entitled to help Ask - people who outwardly appear to be functioning may not be Persistence - ask and offer help more than once. 2. Facilitating access: right words, time and place What is available - support is needed with ongoing stress as well as for crises Find the words - men wanted examples of how to ask for help Allow time - employers expect recovery to be swift, some men felt rushed to come off medications or were discharged from services they still needed. 3. Adjusting delivery: equal engagement Power - some were uncomfortable with service dynamics, preferring peer support Every service contact counts - negative contacts had particular impact Safe spaces - may be different for men and women. Methods There were three strands of work: Secondary analysis of nine survey series, spanning more than twenty years Linkage of 144,000 survey participants to information on whether they were alive in 2013 and whether they had taken their own life Facilitated consultation, through depth interviews with people with lived experience

Predictive validity of A-level grades and teacher-predicted grades in UK medical school applicants: a retrospective analysis of administrative data in a time of COVID-19

OBJECTIVES: To compare in UK medical students the predictive validity of attained A-level grades and teacher-predicted A levels for undergraduate and postgraduate outcomes. Teacher-predicted A-level grades are a plausible proxy for the teacher-estimated grades that replaced UK examinations in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also models the likely future consequences for UK medical schools of replacing public A-level examination grades with teacher-predicted grades. DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study using UK Medical Education Database data. SETTING: UK medical education and training. PARTICIPANTS: Dataset 1: 81 202 medical school applicants in 2010–2018 with predicted and attained A-level grades. Dataset 2: 22 150 18-year-old medical school applicants in 2010–2014 with predicted and attained A-level grades, of whom 12 600 had medical school assessment outcomes and 1340 had postgraduate outcomes available. OUTCOME MEASURES: Undergraduate and postgraduate medical examination results in relation to attained and teacher-predicted A-level results. RESULTS: Dataset 1: teacher-predicted grades were accurate for 48.8% of A levels, overpredicted in 44.7% of cases and underpredicted in 6.5% of cases. Dataset 2: undergraduate and postgraduate outcomes correlated significantly better with attained than with teacher-predicted A-level grades. Modelling suggests that using teacher-estimated grades instead of attained grades will mean that 2020 entrants are more likely to underattain compared with previous years, 13% more gaining the equivalent of the lowest performance decile and 16% fewer reaching the equivalent of the current top decile, with knock-on effects for postgraduate training. CONCLUSIONS: The replacement of attained A-level examination grades with teacher-estimated grades as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic may result in 2020 medical school entrants having somewhat lower academic performance compared with previous years. Medical schools may need to consider additional teaching for entrants who are struggling or who might need extra support for missed aspects of A-level teaching

Application of neural networks in modelling serviceability deterioration of concrete stormwater pipes

Stormwater pipe systems in Australia are designed to convey water from rainfall and surface runoff only and do not transport sewage. Any blockage can cause flooding events with the probability of subsequent property damage. Proactive maintenance plans that can enhance their serviceability need to be developed based on a sound deterioration model. This paper uses a neural network (NN) approach to model deterioration in serviceability of concrete stormwater pipes, which make up the bulk of the stormwater network in Australia. System condition data was collected using CCTV images. The outcomes of model are the identification of the significant factors influencing the serviceability deterioration and the forecasting of the change of serviceability condition over time for individual pipes based on the pipe attributes. The proposed method is validated and compared with multiple discriminant analysis, a traditionally statistical method. The results show that the NN model can be applied to forecasting serviceability deterioration. However, further improvements in data collection and condition grading schemes should be carried out to increase the prediction accuracy of the NN model.<br /

The specialty choices of graduates from Brighton and Sussex Medical School: a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND Since 2007 junior doctors in the UK have had to make major career decisions at a point when previously many had not yet chosen a specialty. This study examined when doctors in this new system make specialty choices, which factors influence choices, and whether doctors who choose a specialty they were interested in at medical school are more confident in their choice than those doctors whose interests change post-graduation. METHODS Two cohorts of students in their penultimate year at one medical school (n = 227/239) were asked which specialty interested them as a career. Two years later, 210/227 were sent a questionnaire measuring actual specialty chosen, confidence, influence of perceptions of the specialty and experiences on choice, satisfaction with medicine, personality, self-efficacy, and demographics. Medical school and post-graduation choices in the same category were deemed 'stable'. Predictors of stability, and of not having chosen a specialty, were calculated using bootstrapped logistic regression. Differences between specialties on questionnaire factors were analysed. RESULTS 50% responded (n = 105/277; 44% of the 239 Year 4 students). 65% specialty choices were 'stable'. Factors univariately associated with stability were specialty chosen, having enjoyed the specialty at medical school or since starting work, having first considered the specialty earlier. A regression found doctors who chose psychiatry were more likely to have changed choice than those who chose general practice. Confidence in the choice was not associated with stability. Those who chose general practice valued lifestyle factors. A psychiatry choice was associated with needing a job and using one's intellect to help others. The decision to choose surgical training tended to be made early. Not having applied for specialty training was associated with being lower on agreeableness and conscientiousness. CONCLUSION Medical school experiences are important in specialty choice but experiences post-graduation remain significant, particularly in some specialties (psychiatry in our sample). Career guidance is important at medical school and should be continued post-graduation, with senior clinicians supported in advising juniors. Careers advice in the first year post-graduation may be particularly important, especially for specialties which have difficulty recruiting or are poorly represented at medical school

Predictive validity of the UK clinical aptitude test in the final years of medical school:a prospective cohort study

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Mass fluxes and isofluxes of methane (CH4) at a New Hampshire fen measured by a continuous wave quantum cascade laser spectrometer

We have developed a mid‐infrared continuous‐wave quantum cascade laser direct‐absorption spectrometer (QCLS) capable of high frequency (≥1 Hz) measurements of 12CH4 and 13CH4 isotopologues of methane (CH4) with in situ 1‐s RMS image precision of 1.5 ‰ and Allan‐minimum precision of 0.2 ‰. We deployed this QCLS in a well‐studied New Hampshire fen to compare measurements of CH4 isoflux by eddy covariance (EC) to Keeling regressions of data from automated flux chamber sampling. Mean CH4 fluxes of 6.5 ± 0.7 mg CH4 m−2 hr−1 over two days of EC sampling in July, 2009 were indistinguishable from mean autochamber CH4 fluxes (6.6 ± 0.8 mgCH4 m−2 hr−1) over the same period. Mean image composition of emitted CH4 calculated using EC isoflux methods was −71 ± 8 ‰ (95% C.I.) while Keeling regressions of 332 chamber closing events over 8 days yielded a corresponding value of −64.5 ± 0.8 ‰. Ebullitive fluxes, representing ∼10% of total CH4 fluxes at this site, were on average 1.2 ‰ enriched in 13C compared to diffusive fluxes. CH4 isoflux time series have the potential to improve process‐based understanding of methanogenesis, fully characterize source isotopic distributions, and serve as additional constraints for both regional and global CH4 modeling analysis

Clinical response to primary letrozole therapy in elderly patients with early breast cancer : possible role for p53 as a biomarker

Primary tamoxifen therapy has been widely used to treat elderly women with ER-positive breast cancer in the past. Aromatase inhibitors may be more beneficial than tamoxifen when used as primary endocrine therapy in elderly patients. We aimed to retrospectively evaluate a series of elderly women with ER-positive breast cancer treated with primary letrozole therapy as sole therapy with a minimum of 5 years follow up. To identify possible predictive biomarkers a pilot immunohistochemical analysis was performed to assess the expression of PR, HER2, EGFR, BCL2 and p53. A total of 45 women, aged more than 70 years with a diagnosis of ER-positive breast cancer that was treated with primary letrozole therapy were identified. A case note review was undertaken to obtain clinical information. Formalin fixed paraffin embedded tumour tissue from diagnostic core biopsies was available for all patients. Immunohistochemical analysis was performed to establish the protein expression status of p53, PR, HER2, EGFR and BCL2. The mean age of the 45 patients was 87 years (range 70–101). Clinical benefit was seen in 60% of the patients. Median progression free survival was 53 months (95% CI – 34–72) and the median time to progression was 43 months (95% CI – 22–64). BCL2 was expressed in 45/45 (100%); PR in 38/45 (84%); EGFR in 13/45 (28%); HER2 in 9/45 (20%) and p53 in 5/45 (11%) of tissue samples. Positive expression of p53 was associated with poor progression free survival (p = 0.03) in this pilot study. This study demonstrates that letrozole as sole treatment appears to be a suitable treatment option for elderly patients with ER-positive breast cancer who are not fit for, or decline, surgery. The analysis of p53 in a larger study is warranted in order to assess its role as a biomarker in this patient group