19,989 research outputs found
Diffusion Approximations for Demographic Inference: DaDi
Models of demographic history (population sizes, migration rates, and divergence times) inferred from genetic data complement archeology and serve as null models in genome scans for selection. Most current inference methods are computationally limited to considering simple models or non-recombining data. We introduce a method based on a diffusion approximation to the joint frequency spectrum of genetic variation between populations. Our implementation, DaDi, can model up to three interacting populations and scales well to genome-wide data. We have applied DaDi to human data from Africa, Europe, and East Asia, building the most complex statistically well-characterized model of human migration out of Africa to date
Cyclical tests of selected space shuttle TPS metallic materials in a plasma arc tunnel Volume 1: Description of tests and program summary
Work, concerned with cyclical thermal evaluation of selected space shuttle thermal protection system (TPS) metallic materials in a hypervelocity oxidizing atmosphere that approximated an actual entry environment, is presented. A total of 325 sample test hours were conducted on 21 super-alloy metallic samples at temperatures from 1800 to 2200 F (1256 to 1478 K) without any failures. The 4 x 4 in. (10.2 x 10.2 cm) samples were fabricated from five nickel base alloys and one cobalt base alloy. Eighteen of the samples were cycled 100 times each and the other three samples 50 times each in a test stream emanating from an 8 in. (20.3 cm) diam exit, Mach 4.6, conical nozzle. The test cycle consisted of a 10 min heat pulse to a controlled temperature followed by a 10 min cooldown period. The TD-NiCrAl and TD-NiAlY materials showed the least change in weight, thickness, and physical appearance even though they were subjected to the highest temperature environment
Cyclical Tests of Selected Space Shuttle TPS Metallic Materials in a Plasma Arc Tunnel. Volume 2: Appendices - Data Tabulation
Calibration data are presented for heat flux and pressure profiles, model temperature histories, and model weight and thickness changes
Stellar Activity and its Implications for Exoplanet Detection on GJ 176
We present an in-depth analysis of stellar activity and its effects on radial
velocity (RV) for the M2 dwarf GJ 176 based on spectra taken over 10 years from
the High Resolution Spectrograph on the Hobby-Eberly Telescope. These data are
supplemented with spectra from previous observations with the HIRES and HARPS
spectrographs, and V- and R-band photometry taken over 6 years at the Dyer and
Fairborn observatories. Previous studies of GJ 176 revealed a super-Earth
exoplanet in an 8.8-day orbit. However, the velocities of this star are also
known to be contaminated by activity, particularly at the 39-day stellar
rotation period. We have examined the magnetic activity of GJ 176 using the
sodium I D lines, which have been shown to be a sensitive activity tracer in
cool stars. In addition to rotational modulation, we see evidence of a
long-term trend in our Na I D index, which may be part of a long-period
activity cycle. The sodium index is well correlated with our RVs, and we show
that this activity trend drives a corresponding slope in RV. Interestingly, the
rotation signal remains in phase in photometry, but not in the spectral
activity indicators. We interpret this phenomenon as the result of one or more
large spot complexes or active regions which dominate the photometric
variability, while the spectral indices are driven by the overall magnetic
activity across the stellar surface. In light of these results, we discuss the
potential for correcting activity signals in the RVs of M dwarfs.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap
Emulating computer models with step-discontinuous outputs using Gaussian processes
In many real-world applications, we are interested in approximating functions that are analytically unknown. An emulator provides a "fast" approximation of such functions relying on a limited number of evaluations. Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace emulators due to their properties such as the ability to quantify uncertainty. GPs are essentially developed to emulate smooth, continuous functions. However, the assumptions of continuity and smoothness is unwarranted in many situations. For example, in computer models where bifurcation, tipping points occur in their systems of equations, the outputs can be discontinuous. This paper examines the capacity of GPs for emulating step-discontinuous functions using two approaches. The first approach is based on choosing covariance functions/kernels, namely neural network and Gibbs, that are most appropriate for modelling discontinuities. The predictive performance of these two kernels is illustrated using several examples. The results show that they have superior performance to standard covariance functions, such as the Mat\'ern family, in capturing sharp jumps. The second approach is to transform the input space such that in the new space a GP with a standard kernel is able to predict the function well. A parametric transformation function is used whose parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC
Non-Gaussian Radio-Wave Scattering in the Interstellar Medium
It was recently suggested by Boldyrev & Gwinn that the characteristics of
radio scintillations from distant pulsars are best understood if the
interstellar electron-density fluctuations that cause the time broadening of
the radio pulses obey non-Gaussian statistics. In this picture the density
fluctuations are inferred to be strong on very small scales (). We argue that such density structures could correspond to the ionized
boundaries of molecular regions (clouds) and demonstrate that the power-law
distribution of scattering angles that is required to match the observations
arises naturally from the expected intersections of our line of sight with
randomly distributed, thin, approximately spherical ionized shells of this
type. We show that the observed change in the time-broadening behavior for
pulsar dispersion measures is consistent
with the expected effect of the general ISM turbulence, which should dominate
the scattering for nearby pulsars. We also point out that if the clouds are
ionized by nearby stars, then their boundaries may become turbulent on account
of an ionization front instability. This turbulence could be an alternative
cause of the inferred density structures. An additional effect that might
contribute to the strength of the small-scale fluctuations in this case is the
expected flattening of the turbulent density spectrum when the eddy sizes
approach the proton gyroscale.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, accepted to Ap
Planetary systems around close binary stars: the case of the very dusty, Sun-like, spectroscopic binary BD+20 307
Field star BD+20 307 is the dustiest known main sequence star, based on the
fraction of its bolometric luminosity, 4%, that is emitted at infrared
wavelengths. The particles that carry this large IR luminosity are unusually
warm, comparable to the temperature of the zodiacal dust in the solar system,
and their existence is likely to be a consequence of a fairly recent collision
of large objects such as planets or planetary embryos. Thus, the age of BD+20
307 is potentially of interest in constraining the era of terrestrial planet
formation. The present project was initiated with an attempt to derive this age
using the Chandra X-ray Observatory to measure the X-ray flux of BD+20 307 in
conjunction with extensive photometric and spectroscopic monitoring
observations from Fairborn Observatory. However, the recent realization that
BD+20 307 is a short period, double-line, spectroscopic binary whose components
have very different lithium abundances, vitiates standard methods of age
determination. We find the system to be metal-poor; this, combined with its
measured lithium abundances, indicates that BD+20 307 may be several to many
Gyr old. BD+20 307 affords astronomy a rare peek into a mature planetary system
in orbit around a close binary star (because such systems are not amenable to
study by the precision radial velocity technique).Comment: accepted for ApJ, December 10, 200
In order to increase competition in U.S. House races, states should look to extra-legislative bodies to redraw congressional boundaries
Politicians and pundits alike regularly bemoan the lack of electoral competition in congressional races as incumbent reelection rates frequently soar to over 90 percent. Redistricting and gerrymandering are often blamed as a way to lock members into their seats for at least a decade. Jamie L. Carson, Michael H. Crespin and Ryan D. Williamson ask if there are ways to inject more competition into elections during the mandated redistricting cycles. Based on an analysis of redistricting cycles from 1972 to 2012, they show that commission and court-drawn districts experience marginally more competition than those drawn by state legislatures. These results provide additional support for the argument that one way to increase the competitiveness of congressional elections is to allow extra-legislative bodies to draw congressional district boundaries
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