Three Great American Disinflations

This paper analyzes the role of transparency and credibility in accounting for the widely divergent macroeconomic effects of three episodes of deliberate monetary contraction: the post-Civil War deflation, the post-WWI deflation, and the Volcker disinflation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model in which private agents use optimal filtering to infer the central bank's nominal anchor, we demonstrate that the salient features of these three historical episodes can be explained by differences in the design and transparency of monetary policy, even without any time variation in economic structure or model parameters. For a policy regime with relatively high credibility, our analysis highlights the benefits of a gradualist approach (as in the 1870s) rather than a sudden change in policy (as in 1920-21). In contrast, for a policy institution with relatively low credibility (such as the Federal Reserve in late 1980), an aggressive policy stance can play an important signalling role by making the policy shift more evident to private agents.

Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression

This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is surprisingly successful in accounting for the behavior of major macroaggregates and real wages during the downturn phase of the Depression, i.e., from 1929:3 through mid-1933. Our analysis provides support for the hypothesis that a monetary contraction operating through a sticky wage channel played a significant role in accounting for the downturn, and also provides an interesting refinement to this explanation. In particular, both the absolute severity of the Depression's downturn and its relative severity compared to the 1920-21 recession are likely attributable to the price decline having a much larger unanticipated component during the Depression, as well as less flexible wage-setting practices during this latter period. Another finding casts doubt on explanations for the 1933-36 recovery that rely heavily on the substantial remonetization that began in 1933.Money supply ; Wages ; Depressions

The search for universal transdiagnostic and trans-therapy change processes: evidence for intolerance of uncertainty

The search for universal processes associated with symptom change across emotional disorders and different forms of psychotherapy offers hope of increased theoretical parsimony and treatment efficiencies. This study investigated whether intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a universal process by examining whether changes in IU were associated with changes in symptoms across three different cognitive behavior therapy protocols for depression (n = 106), social anxiety disorder (n = 88), or generalized anxiety disorder (n = 62) in a community mental health clinic. IU was associated with reductions in repetitive negative thinking in all treatments, which is consistent with IU being a transdiagnostic and 'trans-therapy' process of change. Changes in IU were also associated with symptom relief in the social anxiety disorder and generalized anxiety disorder groups, but not in the depression group. Implications of these findings are discussed within the broader literature of transdiagnostic approaches to emotional disorders

Imagery enhancements increase the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural group therapy for social anxiety disorder: A benchmarking study

Emerging evidence suggests that imagery-based techniques may enhance the effectiveness of traditional verbal-linguistic cognitive interventions for emotional disorders. This study extends an earlier pilot study by reporting outcomes from a naturalistic trial of an imagery-enhanced cognitive behavioural group therapy (IE-CBGT, n=53) protocol for social anxiety disorder (SAD), and comparing outcomes to historical controls who completed a predominantly verbally-based group protocol (n=129). Patients were consecutive referrals from health professionals to a community clinic specialising in anxiety and mood disorders. Both treatments involved 12, two-hour group sessions plus a one-month follow-up. Analyses evaluated treatment adherence, predictors of dropout, treatment effect sizes, reliable and clinically significant change, and whether self-reported tendencies to use imagery in everyday life and imagery ability predicted symptom change. IE-CBGT patients were substantially more likely to complete treatment than controls (91% vs. 65%). Effect sizes were very large for both treatments, but were significantly larger for IE-CBGT. A higher proportion of the IE-CBGT patients achieved reliable change, and better imagery ability was associated with larger symptom change. Outcomes compared very favourably to published group and individual treatments for SAD, suggesting that IE-CBGT may be a particularly effective and efficient mode of treatment delivery

Sanitary inspection of poisons in Croatia

Autori su našli da je broj higijensko-sanitarnih nedostataka u prostorijama i objektima gdje se otrovi proizvode i stavljaju u promet mnogo češći od nedostataka kod samih otrova. Ovo upućuje na to da je potrebno najprije obratiti veću pažnju na uvjete okoline u kojoj se otrovi nalaze. Tendencije pada broja nedostataka u prostorijama, objektima i kod otrova upućuje na to da se higijensko-sanitarni uvjeti stalno poboljšavaju.The authors analyzed the results of sanitary supervision of the conditions of handling and storage of poisonous substances in Croatia during the period between 1964 and 1976. They observed more inadequacy in the premises where the poisons are kept than imperfections in the poisonous material itself. The authors therefore concluded that more attention should be directed to the environmental conditions of poison production and storage. In recent years, however, there has been a tendency to improve these shortcomings

Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression

This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is surprisingly successful in accounting for the behavior of major macroaggregates and real wages during the downturn phase of the Depression, i.e., from 1929:3 through mid-1933. Our analysis provides support for the hypothesis that a monetary contraction operating through a sticky wage channel played a significant role in accounting for the downturn, and also provides an interesting refinement to this explanation. In particular, both the absolute severity of the Depression's downturn and its relative severity compared to the 1920-21 recession are likely attributable to the price decline having a much larger unanticipated component during the Depression, as well as less flexible wage-setting practices during this latter period. Another finding casts doubt on explanations for the 1933-36 recovery that rely heavily on the substantial remonetization that began in 1933.

Mechanisms of change during group metacognitive therapy for repetitive negative thinking in primary and non-primary generalized anxiety disorder

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Repetitive negative thinking (RNT) is a transdiagnostic process that serves to maintain emotional disorders. Metacognitive theory suggests that positive and negative metacognitive beliefs guide the selection of RNT as a coping strategy which, in turn, increases psychological distress. The aim of this study was to test the indirect effect of metacognitive beliefs on psychological distress via RNT. Patients (N=52) with primary and non-primary generalized anxiety disorder attended a brief, six-week group metacognitive therapy program and completed measures of metacognitive beliefs, RNT, and symptoms at the first and final treatment sessions, and at a one-month follow-up. Prospective indirect effects models found that negative metacognitive beliefs (but not positive metacognitive beliefs) had a significant indirect effect on psychological distress via RNT. As predicted by metacognitive theory, targeting negative metacognitions in treatment appears to reduce RNT and, in turn, emotional distress. Further research using alternative measures at multiple time points during therapy is required to determine whether the absence of a relationship with positive metacognitive beliefs in this study was a consequence of (a) psychometric issues, (b) these beliefs only being relevant to a subgroup of patients, or (c) a lack of awareness early in treatment

Single-molecule super-resolution imaging of chromosomes and in situ haplotype visualization using Oligopaint FISH probes

Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) is a powerful single-cell technique for studying nuclear structure and organization. Here we report two advances in FISH-based imaging. We first describe the in situ visualization of single-copy regions of the genome using two single-molecule super-resolution methodologies. We then introduce a robust and reliable system that harnesses single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to visually distinguish the maternal and paternal homologous chromosomes in mammalian and insect systems. Both of these new technologies are enabled by renewable, bioinformatically designed, oligonucleotide-based Oligopaint probes, which we augment with a strategy that uses secondary oligonucleotides (oligos) to produce and enhance fluorescent signals. These advances should substantially expand the capability to query parent-of-origin-specific chromosome positioning and gene expression on a cell-by-cell basis

Synthesis of crown ether compounds as potential inhibitors of enzymatic discolouration of foods

The synthesis of the following crown ether containing compounds as potential polyphenol oxidase inhibitors is described: 4'-N(benzo-crown-5)succinamic acid (I), 4'-N(benzo-15-crown-5)malemic acid (II), ester of 4'-N(benzo-15-crown-5)bis[4'-N(benzo-15-crown-5)]phthalamic acid (III) and complex of benzo-18-crown-6 with 2-propenyl-acrylamide (IV). The complexes of I, II and IV with potassium 2-propenyl-acrylamide are also described

Group metacognitive therapy for repetitive negative thinking in primary and non-primary generalized anxiety disorder: An effectiveness trial

Background Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is a common and highly comorbid anxiety disorder characterized by repetitive negative thinking (RNT). Treatment trials tend to exclude individuals with non-primary GAD, despite this being a common presentation in real world clinics. RNT is also associated with multiple emotional disorders, suggesting that it should be targeted regardless of the primary disorder. This study evaluated the acceptability and effectiveness of brief group metacognitive therapy (MCT) for primary or non-primary GAD within a community clinic. Methods Patients referred to a specialist community clinic attended six, two-hour weekly sessions plus a one-month follow-up (N=52). Measures of metacognitive beliefs, RNT, symptoms, positive and negative affect, and quality of life were completed at the first, last, and follow-up sessions. Results Attrition was low and large intent-to-treat effects were observed on most outcomes, particularly for negative metacognitive beliefs and RNT. Treatment gains increased further to follow-up. Benchmarking comparisons demonstrated that outcomes compared favorably to longer disorder-specific protocols for primary GAD. Limitations No control group or independent assessment of protocol adherence. Conclusions Brief metacognitive therapy is an acceptable and powerful treatment for patients with primary or non-primary GAD