948 research outputs found
Spreading in Social Systems: Reflections
In this final chapter, we consider the state-of-the-art for spreading in
social systems and discuss the future of the field. As part of this reflection,
we identify a set of key challenges ahead. The challenges include the following
questions: how can we improve the quality, quantity, extent, and accessibility
of datasets? How can we extract more information from limited datasets? How can
we take individual cognition and decision making processes into account? How
can we incorporate other complexity of the real contagion processes? Finally,
how can we translate research into positive real-world impact? In the
following, we provide more context for each of these open questions.Comment: 7 pages, chapter to appear in "Spreading Dynamics in Social Systems";
Eds. Sune Lehmann and Yong-Yeol Ahn, Springer Natur
Spreading paths in partially observed social networks
Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in
social networks is an important problem, having implications for both
predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective
interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading
paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a
dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only
partially observing a network. Using a static, structurally realistic social
network as a platform for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1)
the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to
target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and
hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3)
the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled
network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the
unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length
of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also
frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the
partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate
of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may,
counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, 1 tabl
From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis
Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better
understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as
financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without
large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible.
Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research
centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a
network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted
to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural
systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human
techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending
events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more
accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually
customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting
way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing
Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well.
As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the
public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data
available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic
societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems.
Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility
and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits,
where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient
justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good,
as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for
society.Comment: 65 pages, 1 figure, Visioneer White Paper, see
http://www.visioneer.ethz.c
Computational modelling with uncertainty of frequent users of e-commerce in Spain using an age-group dynamic nonlinear model with varying size population
[EN] Electronic commerce (EC) has numerous advantages. It allows saving time when we purchase an item, offers the possibility of review without depending on the schedules of traditional stores, access to a wider variety and quantity of articles, in many cases, with lower prices, etc. Based upon mathematical epidemiology tenets strongly related to social behavior able to describe the influence of peers, in this paper we propose an age-group dynamic model with population varying size based on a system of difference equations to study the evolution of the frequent users of EC over time in Spain. Using data from surveys retrieved from the Spanish National Statistics Institute, we use and design computational algorithms to perform a probabilistic estimation of the model parameters that allow the model output to capture the data uncertainty. Then, we will be able to perform a precise prediction with uncertainty.This work has been partially supported by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad grant MTM2017-89664-P and by the European Union through the Operational Program of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF) of the Valencian Community 2014-2020, grants GJIDI/2018/A/009 and GJIDI/2018/A/010.Burgos-Simon, C.; Cortés, J.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2019). Computational modelling with uncertainty of frequent users of e-commerce in Spain using an age-group dynamic nonlinear model with varying size population. Advances in Complex Systems. 22(4):1950009-1-1950009-17. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525919500097S1950009-11950009-17224Bettencourt, L. (1997). Customer voluntary performance: Customers as partners in service delivery. Journal of Retailing, 73(3), 383-406. doi:10.1016/s0022-4359(97)90024-5Brauer, F., & Castillo-Chávez, C. (2001). Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology. Texts in Applied Mathematics. doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3516-1Cortés, J.-C., Lombana, I.-C., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2010). Age-structured mathematical modeling approach to short-term diffusion of electronic commerce in Spain. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 52(7-8), 1045-1051. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2010.02.030Hethcote, H. W. (2000). The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases. SIAM Review, 42(4), 599-653. doi:10.1137/s0036144500371907Yanhui, L., & Siming, Z. (2007). Competitive dynamics of e-commerce web sites. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 31(5), 912-919. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2006.03.029Mahajan, V., Muller, E., & Bass, F. M. (1991). New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research. Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior, 125-177. doi:10.1007/978-3-662-02700-4_6Turban, E., Outland, J., King, D., Lee, J. K., Liang, T.-P., & Turban, D. C. (2018). Electronic Commerce 2018. Springer Texts in Business and Economics. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-58715-
Studying Paths of Participation in Viral Diffusion Process
Authors propose a conceptual model of participation in viral diffusion
process composed of four stages: awareness, infection, engagement and action.
To verify the model it has been applied and studied in the virtual social chat
environment settings. The study investigates the behavioral paths of actions
that reflect the stages of participation in the diffusion and presents
shortcuts, that lead to the final action, i.e. the attendance in a virtual
event. The results show that the participation in each stage of the process
increases the probability of reaching the final action. Nevertheless, the
majority of users involved in the virtual event did not go through each stage
of the process but followed the shortcuts. That suggests that the viral
diffusion process is not necessarily a linear sequence of human actions but
rather a dynamic system.Comment: In proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Social
Informatics, SocInfo 201
Lack of sexual behavior disclosure may distort STI testing outcomes.
BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) globally have a high burden of curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). MSM do not frequently receive rectal STI testing because of several barriers, such as not being out (disclosure of sexual behavior). We evaluate whether Chinese MSM select an STI test (rectal vs urethral) appropriate for their sexual behavior (insertive and/or receptive), and the interactions with being out. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of data from a cross sectional MSM survey conducted at a multisite randomized controlled trial (RCT) (December 2018 to January 2019) around uptake of gonorrhea and chlamydia testing among Chinese MSM (N = 431). We collected socio demographics, relevant medical and sexual history, and disclosure of sexual behavior (outness). We estimated the decision to test and test choice, and the extent to which disclosure plays a role in decision making. RESULTS: Among 431 MSM, mean age was 28 years (SD = 7.10) and 65% were out to someone. MSM who indicated versatile sexual behavior and were out to someone had a 26.8% (95%CI = 6.1, 47.5) increased likelihood for selecting the rectal test vs the ure thral test, compared to those versatile and not out. Versatile MSM out to their health provider outside of the study context had a 29.4% (95%CI = 6.3, 52.6) greater likelihood for selecting the rectal STI test vs the urethral test, compared to versatile MSM not out to their health provider. CONCLUSIONS: Sexual behavior and outness may affect gonorrhea and chlamydia testing provision. Apart from clinicians, community based efforts may reduce stigma based barriers to testing
Improving quality of care for end-stage respiratory disease: changes in attitude, changes in service
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