Re-figuring Federalism: Nation and State in Health Reform's Next Round

Reviews the evolution of national healthcare reform movements and the relationship between the federal and state governments, with international comparisons. Outlines differences to be resolved over Medicaid and other programs under a reformed system

Response to Discussion by A. H. Welsh on the AF 447 Paper

Response to "Discussion of "Search for the Wreckage of Air France Flight AF 447" by by Lawrence D. Stone, Colleen M. Keller, Thomas M. Kratzke, Johan P. Strumpfer [arXiv:1405.4720]" by A. H. Welsh [arXiv:1405.4991].Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-STS463 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

In-season prediction of batting averages: A field test of empirical Bayes and Bayes methodologies

Batting average is one of the principle performance measures for an individual baseball player. It is natural to statistically model this as a binomial-variable proportion, with a given (observed) number of qualifying attempts (called ``at-bats''), an observed number of successes (``hits'') distributed according to the binomial distribution, and with a true (but unknown) value of $p_i$ that represents the player's latent ability. This is a common data structure in many statistical applications; and so the methodological study here has implications for such a range of applications. We look at batting records for each Major League player over the course of a single season (2005). The primary focus is on using only the batting records from an earlier part of the season (e.g., the first 3 months) in order to estimate the batter's latent ability, $p_i$, and consequently, also to predict their batting-average performance for the remainder of the season. Since we are using a season that has already concluded, we can then validate our estimation performance by comparing the estimated values to the actual values for the remainder of the season. The prediction methods to be investigated are motivated from empirical Bayes and hierarchical Bayes interpretations. A newly proposed nonparametric empirical Bayes procedure performs particularly well in the basic analysis of the full data set, though less well with analyses involving more homogeneous subsets of the data. In those more homogeneous situations better performance is obtained from appropriate versions of more familiar methods. In all situations the poorest performing choice is the na\"{{\i}}ve predictor which directly uses the current average to predict the future average.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS138 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Nonparametric empirical Bayes and compound decision approaches to estimation of a high-dimensional vector of normal means

We consider the classical problem of estimating a vector \bolds{\mu}=(\mu_1,...,\mu_n) based on independent observations $Y_i\sim N(\mu_i,1)$, $i=1,...,n$. Suppose $\mu_i$, $i=1,...,n$ are independent realizations from a completely unknown $G$. We suggest an easily computed estimator \hat{\bolds{\mu}}, such that the ratio of its risk E(\hat{\bolds{\mu}}-\bolds{\mu})^2 with that of the Bayes procedure approaches 1. A related compound decision result is also obtained. Our asymptotics is of a triangular array; that is, we allow the distribution $G$ to depend on $n$. Thus, our theoretical asymptotic results are also meaningful in situations where the vector \bolds{\mu} is sparse and the proportion of zero coordinates approaches 1. We demonstrate the performance of our estimator in simulations, emphasizing sparse setups. In ``moderately-sparse'' situations, our procedure performs very well compared to known procedures tailored for sparse setups. It also adapts well to nonsparse situations.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS630 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

EXTENSION'S RESPONSE TO UNDERSTANDING EVOLVING LIVESTOCK MARKET SIGNALS: IOWA'S EXPERIENCE

Livestock Production/Industries, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Statistical properties of the method of regularization with periodic Gaussian reproducing kernel

The method of regularization with the Gaussian reproducing kernel is popular in the machine learning literature and successful in many practical applications. In this paper we consider the periodic version of the Gaussian kernel regularization. We show in the white noise model setting, that in function spaces of very smooth functions, such as the infinite-order Sobolev space and the space of analytic functions, the method under consideration is asymptotically minimax; in finite-order Sobolev spaces, the method is rate optimal, and the efficiency in terms of constant when compared with the minimax estimator is reasonably high. The smoothing parameters in the periodic Gaussian regularization can be chosen adaptively without loss of asymptotic efficiency. The results derived in this paper give a partial explanation of the success of the Gaussian reproducing kernel in practice. Simulations are carried out to study the finite sample properties of the periodic Gaussian regularization.Comment: Published by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org) in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00905360400000045

Science, Politics, and Values: The Politicization of Professional Practice Guidelines

The Connecticut Attorney General’s recent allegations that the Infectious Disease Society of America violated antitrust law through its treatment guidelines for Lyme disease were neither based in sound science or appropriate legal judgment. Strong scientific evidence favors IDSA’s position that chronic infection with the etiologic agent of Lyme disease does not occur in the absence of objective signs of ongoing infection and that long-term antibiotic use to treat dubious infection, recommended in the quasi-scientific guidelines put forth by the International Lyme and Associated Diseases Society (ILADS), are of no benefit. In siding with ILADS and other chronic Lyme disease advocates, ultimately forcing IDSA to settle lest it expend exorbitant legal costs, the attorney general abused science and his public trust. This case exemplifies the politicization of health policy and confuses the relative spheres inhabited by normative discourse and scientific inquiry. Science should provide the evidentiary base for normative discussions, and values and politics will always be important in deciding how science is applied for human benefit. But a wall of separation is needed between science, values, and politics, as medical science, and the patients who depend on it, is too important for political distortion

ILR Impact Brief - The Sources of International Differences in Wage Inequality

Wage inequality in the U.S. exceeds that of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland. Some researchers have pointed to the higher relative rewards for higher cognitive skill and more education in the U.S. as an important cause of this difference; others emphasize the greater diversity of labor market skills within the American population. This paper uses recently collected international data on cognitive skills, earnings, age, and years of formal schooling to assess the relative importance of population heterogeneity and higher relative pay for more cognitive skill in explaining higher U.S. wage inequality