Lupus nephritis in Chinese children--a territory-wide cohort study in Hong Kong

We report a multicenter study of Chinese children in Hong Kong with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) nephritis. Children were included if: they fulfilled the ACR criteria, had significant proteinuria or casturia, were Chinese and younger than 19 years and had been diagnosed with SLE between January 1990 and December 2003. Investigators in each center retrieved data on clinical features, biopsy reports, treatment and outcome of these patients. There were 128 patients (eight boys, 120 girls; mean age: 11.9+/-2.8 years). About 50% presented with multisystem illness and 40% with nephritic/nephrotic symptoms. Negative anti-dsDNA antibodies were found in 6% of the patients. Renal biopsy revealed WHO Class II, III, IV and V nephritis in 13 (10%), 22 (17%), 69 (54%) and 13 (10%) patients, respectively. The clinical severity of the nephritis did not accurately predict renal biopsy findings. The follow-up period ranged from 1 to 16.5 years (mean+/-SD: 5.76+/-3.61 years). During the study five patients died (two from lupus flare, one from cardiomyopathy, two from infections). Four patients had endstage renal failure (ESRF) (one died during a lupus flare). All deaths and end-stage renal failure occurred in the Class IV nephritis group. Chronic organ damage was infrequent in the survivors. The actuarial patient survival rates at 5, 10 and 15 years of age were 95.3, 91.8, and 91.8%, respectively. For Class IV nephritis patients, the survival rates without ESRF at 5, 10, and 15 years were 91.5, 82.3 and 76%, respectively. The survival and chronic morbidity rates of the Chinese SLE children in the present study are comparable to those of other published studies.postprin

Introducing the Complexity of Educational Diversification

Peer reviewe

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation

We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). We particularly look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron. After optimizing our architecture with ALADIN and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model ANN/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the na\"ive persistence predictor. Note that in the stand alone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposedComment: Energy (2012)

Groups, organizations, families and movements: The sociology of social systems between interaction and society

Kühl S. Groups, organizations, families and movements: The sociology of social systems between interaction and society. Systems Research and Behavioral Science. 2020;37(3):496-515.In enhancing a proposal by Luhmann, this contribution shows that it is possible to locate different types of systems between ‘face‐to‐face‐interaction’ and ‘society’: groups, organizations, families and protest movements. The common ground of these is that they use membership to attribute persons to the system or not. However, they differ fundamentally in regard to how they understand membership. In contrast to Luhmann's differentiation between interaction, organization and society, it is not only possible to imagine different types of interlocking systems but also coequal combinations of and transitions between the different types of social systems