Neutrino flux predictions for known Galactic microquasars

It has been proposed recently that Galactic microquasars may be prodigious emitters of TeV neutrinos that can be detected by upcoming km^2 neutrino telescopes. In this paper we consider a sample of identified microquasars and microquasar candiates, for which available data enables rough determination of the jet parameters. By employing the parameters inferred from radio observations of various jet ejection events, we determine the neutrino fluxes that should have been produced during these events by photopion production in the jet. Despite the large uncertainties in our analysis, we demonstrate that in several of the sources considered, the neutrino flux at Earth, produced in events similar to those observed, would exceed the detection threshold of a km^2 neutrino detector. The class of microquasars may contain also sources with bulk Lorentz factors larger than those characteristic of the sample considered here, directed along our line of sight. Such sources, which may be very difficult to resolve at radio wavelengths and hence may be difficult to identify as microqusar candidates, may emit neutrinos with fluxes significantly larger than typically obtained in the present analysis. These sources may eventually be identified through their neutrino and gamma-ray emission.Comment: 17 pages. Submitted to Ap

Vulnerabilidade do patrimônio ambiental tombado em Campinas-SP e sua relação com índice de vegetação.

Research conducted in forest fragments have contributed to the development of models for recovery of degraded areas, generating decrease deployment costs with increased efficiency, helping in forest management studies, and effectively preserving the remaining vegetation when considering the dynamics of regeneration compared to patterns of space occupation. The survey of the occupation history for the surrounding urban forest fragments located in the city of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil, structured in a Geographical Information System (GIS), allowed to establish a classification which indicates the degree of vulnerability of these forests remnants based on the degree of deterioration of the landscape caused by the incidence of certain activities. The survey was made using legal decisions, occupation history, fauna and flora surveys, environmental reports, information on plant and animal biodiversity as well as the physical characteristics of the fragment?s area, which exemplified the degree and pattern of human occupation. The extraction of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for each area allowed to establish a relation between the occupation pattern for the surrounding and the changes in vegetation cover within these forests fragments, which presented a good match with the degree of vulnerability attributed in previous step

Joint Analysis of the Discount Factor and Payoff Parameters in Dynamic Discrete Choice Games

Most empirical models of dynamic games assume the discount factor to be known and focus on the estimation of the payoff parameters. However, the discount factor can be identifed when the payoffs satisfy parametric or other nonparametric restrictions. We show when the payoffs take the popular linear-in-parameter specification, the joint identification of the discount factor and payoff parameters can be simplified to a one-dimensional model that is easy to analyze. We also show that switching costs (e.g. entry costs) that often feature in empirical work can be identifed in closed-form, independently of the discount factor and other specification of the payoff function. Our identification strategies are constructive. They lead to easy to compute estimands that are global solutions. Estimating the discount factor permits direct inference on borrowing rate. Our estimates of the switching costs can be used for specification testing. We illustrate with a Monte Carlo study and the dataset from Ryan (2012)

Joint Analysis of the Discount Factor and Payoff Parameters in Dynamic Discrete Choice Games

Most empirical and theoretical econometric studies of dynamic discrete choice models assume the discount factor to be known. We show the knowledge of the discount factor is not necessary to identify parts, or all, of the payoff function. We show the discount factor can be generically identifed jointly with the payoff parameters. It is known the payoff function cannot nonparametrically identified without any a priori restrictions. Our identification of the discount factor is robust to any normalization choice on the payoff parameters. In IO applications normalizations are usually made on switching costs, such as entry costs and scrap values. We also show that switching costs can be nonparametrically identified, in closed-form, independently of the discount factor and other parts of the payoff function. Our identification strategies are constructive. They lead to easy to compute estimands that are global solutions. We illustrate with a Monte Carlo study and the dataset from Ryan (2012

Predictive Factors and Morbidities Associated With Patent Ductus Arteriosus in Very Low Birth Weight Infants With Gestational Age 27 - 31 Weeks

A persistência de canal arterial hemodinamicamente significativo (PCAHS) é uma patologia frequente em recém-nascidos de muito baixo peso. O objectivo deste estudo foi identificar fatores de risco e morbilidades associadas à PCAHS no recém-nascido de muiot baixo peso com idade gestacional de 27 e 31 semanas. Estudaram-se os recém-nascidos(RN) com idade gestacional entre 27 e 31 semans e peso de nascimento inferior a 1500 gramas, admitidos numa unidade de cuidados intensivos neonatais entre 2010 e 2012. Realizou-se um estudo caso-coorte, tendo-se identificado os casos com diagnóstico ecográfico de PCAHS e uma amostra sistemática de RN sem diagnóstico de PCAHS (coorte de controlos). Foram explorados por regressão logística modelos preditivos da ocorrência de PACHS e da sua contribuição para a principal morbilidade neonatal. Nos três anos de estudo, a incidência de PACHS foi de 15%, intervalo de confiança (IC) 95% 11,3 - 19,5. A análise dos 44 RN com PACHS e dos 60 sem PACHS identificou como melhores preditores de PACHS a necessidade de ventilação venosa invasiva (odds ratio (OR) 3.65: IC95%1, 268 - 10,479: p=0,016) e a administração de surfatante (OR ajustado 4,52; IC95% 1,738-11,735; p=0,002); a PACHS mostrou ser significativa no modelo preditivo de leucomalácia periventricular (LPV) (OR ajustado 4,42: IC95% 1,621-12,045; p=0,004). Os resultados obtidos sugerem que estratégias preventivas e terapêuticas que permitam a redução da necessidade de administração de surfatante e de ventilação mecânica invasiva podem reduzir o risco de PCAHS. A PCAHS está positivamente associada à incidência de LPV

A contribuição da sistematização de experiências para o fortalecimento do campo agroecológico e da agricultura familiar no Brasil.

Resumo: O Brasil, apesar dos avanços no que diz respeito à agricultura familiar, permanece sob a orientação de políticas governamentais que reforçam o apoio ao setor agroindustrial e ao agronegócio orientado à exportação com ênfase nas monoculturas dependentes de agroquímicos. No contexto atual de crise do modelo hegemônico de produção e consumo de alimentos, a Agroecologia emerge como proposta científica e delineia um conjunto de ações e estratégias que fundamentam o novo paradigma de desenvolvimento rural, demandado especialmente pelo segmento da agricultura familiar. Percebe-se que o enfrentamento desse modelo ocorre em um campo de disputa na sociedade que é antes de tudo político. Destarte, o adensamento territorial das experiências agroecológicas permite maior visibilidade e cria um ambiente sócio político favorável à conectividade crescente entre redes e articulações, que por sua vez, cumprem o papel de intercambiar as experiências e participar ativamente de espaços públicos de debate e construção sobre o desenvolvimento rural. Sob essa perspectiva, a sistematização de experiências pode ajudar a responder os desafios da atualidade, especialmente pelo seu caráter reflexivo e crítico somado à sua intencionalidade de compartilhar os aprendizados gerados durante o seu processo. Por seu caráter estratégico, a sistematização vem ganhando espaço entre organizações da sociedade civil e movimentos sociais, porém, ainda de maneira tímida. Essa pesquisa verifica o pressuposto da relevância da sistematização de experiências, em especial as facilitadas por organizações da sociedade civil, para o fortalecimento do campo agroecológico e da agricultura familiar. Nesse intuito, a revisão esteve centrada nos marcos Agroecologia, Agricultura Familiar e Sistematização, para em seguida compor um método para sistematizar a experiência Projeto Policultura no Semiárido, desenvolvido pelo Instituto de Permacultura da Bahia e certificado como Tecnologia Social. Finalmente, os principais aprendizados são identificados e descritos para que possam ser compartilhados, reforçando assim as estratégias para o fortalecimento da Agroecologia e da Agricultura Familiar no Brasil, especialmente no semiárido. Abstract: Despite all the advances, Brazil remains under the governmental politics orientation. This framework strengthens the support to agribusiness and agro- industrial sector, which leads to exportation, especially the agrochemicals dependent crops. This has contributed for the increase of the land concentration and the extension of agricultural borders. In this context the Agroecology emerges as a scientific proposal and delineates a set of actions and strategies that especially base the new paradigm of agricultural development demanded for familiar agriculture. The confrontation of the hegemonic model of production and consumption takes place in a playing field in society, which is primarily political. The increase of the agroecological experiences allows greater visibility and forges the creation of a socio-political environment conducive to networks and increasing connectivity between the networks and alliances, that fulfill the role to interchange the experiences and to actively participate of public spaces of debate and construction on the agricultural development. From this perspective, the systematization of experiences can help addressing the challenges of today therefore representing a strategy. That strategy analyzes critically the experiences in course and allows the sharing of the learning extracted during the process. For its strategic character, the systematization has been gaining space among civil society organizations and social movements even though still timidly. This research intends to develop the understanding of the relevance of the systematization of experiences, especially those facilitated by civil society organizations to strengthen the agroecological field and familiar agriculture. To this end, it revises the concepts Agroecology, Familiar Agriculture and Systematization, then it composes a method and systemizes the experience in the Policulture in semi-arid region Project, describing the main learning generated during and after initiative.Dissertação (Mestrado em Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Rural) - Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Araras. Orientadora: Lucimar Santiago de Abreu - CNPM