Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

Grain Dynamics in a Two-dimensional Granular Flow

We have used particle tracking methods to study the dynamics of individual balls comprising a granular flow in a small-angle two-dimensional funnel. We statistically analyze many ball trajectories to examine the mechanisms of shock propagation. In particular, we study the creation of, and interactions between, shock waves. We also investigate the role of granular temperature and draw parallels to traffic flow dynamics.Comment: 17 pages, 24 figures. To appear in Phys.Rev.E. High res./color figures etc. on http://www.nbi.dk/CATS/Granular/GrainDyn.htm

A kinetic equation for economic value estimation with irrationality and herding

A kinetic inhomogeneous Boltzmann-type equation is proposed to model the dynamics of the number of agents in a large market depending on the estimated value of an asset and the rationality of the agents. The interaction rules take into account the interplay of the agents with sources of public information, herding phenomena, and irrationality of the individuals. In the formal grazing collision limit, a nonlinear nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation with anisotropic (or incomplete) diffusion is derived. The existence of global-in-time weak solutions to the Fokker-Planck initial-boundary-value problem is proved. Numerical experiments for the Boltzmann equation highlight the importance of the reliability of public information in the formation of bubbles and crashes. The use of Bollinger bands in the simulations shows how herding may lead to strong trends with low volatility of the asset prices, but eventually also to abrupt corrections

MicroRNA machinery responds to peripheral nerve lesion in an injury-regulated pattern

Recently, functional and potent RNA interference (RNAi) has been reported in peripheral nerve axons transfected with short-interfering RNA (siRNA). In addition, components of RNA-induced silencing complex (RISC) have been identified in axotomized sciatic nerve fibers as well as in regenerating dorsal root ganglia (DRG) neurons in vitro. Based on these observations, and on the fact that siRNA and microRNAs (miRNA) share the same effector enzymes, we hypothesized that the endogenous miRNA biosynthetic pathway would respond to peripheral nerve injury. To answer this question, we investigated changes in the expression of miRNA biosynthetic enzymes following peripheral nerve crush injury in mice. Here we show that several pivotal miRNA biosynthetic enzymes are expressed in an injury-regulated pattern in sciatic nerve in vivo, and in DRG axons in vitro. Moreover, the sciatic nerve lesion induced expression of mRNA-processing bodies (P-bodies), which are the local foci of mRNA degradation in DRG axons. In addition, a group of injury-regulated miRNAs was identified by miRNA microarray and validated by qPCR and in situ hybridization analyses. Taken together, our data support the hypothesis that the peripheral nerve regeneration processes may be regulated by miRNA pathway

Comprehensive molecular characterization of gastric adenocarcinoma

Gastric cancer is a leading cause of cancer deaths, but analysis of its molecular and clinical characteristics has been complicated by histological and aetiological heterogeneity. Here we describe a comprehensive molecular evaluation of 295 primary gastric adenocarcinomas as part of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project. We propose a molecular classification dividing gastric cancer into four subtypes: tumours positive for Epstein–Barr virus, which display recurrent PIK3CA mutations, extreme DNA hypermethylation, and amplification of JAK2, CD274 (also known as PD-L1) and PDCD1LG2 (also knownasPD-L2); microsatellite unstable tumours, which show elevated mutation rates, including mutations of genes encoding targetable oncogenic signalling proteins; genomically stable tumours, which are enriched for the diffuse histological variant and mutations of RHOA or fusions involving RHO-family GTPase-activating proteins; and tumours with chromosomal instability, which show marked aneuploidy and focal amplification of receptor tyrosine kinases. Identification of these subtypes provides a roadmap for patient stratification and trials of targeted therapies

Organization of the chloroplast ribosomal RNA genes of Euglena gracilis bacillaris

The order of eight of the 29 endonuclease EcoRI-generated fragments of chloroplast DNA was determined. Three sets of rRNA genes aligned sequentially in the same orientation form part of this region. The repeated sets differ in the length and sequence of the spacers among themselves and with the rRNA genes of E. gracilis strain Z .Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47546/1/438_2004_Article_BF00433298.pd

PATHOGEN-SPECIFIC ANTIBODY PROFILES IN PATIENTS WITH SEVERE SYSTEMIC INFECTIONS

Infections are often caused by pathobionts, endogenous bacteria that belong to the microbiota. Trauma and surgical intervention can allow bacteria to overcome host defences, ultimately leading to sepsis if left untreated. One of the main defence strategies of the immune system is the production of highly specific antibodies. In the present proof-of-concept study, plasma antibodies against 9 major pathogens were measured in sepsis patients, as an example of severe systemic infections. The binding of plasma antibodies to bacterial extracellular proteins was quantified using a semi-automated immunoblot assay. Comparison of the pathogen-specific antibody levels before and after infection showed an increase in plasma IgG in 20 out of 37 tested patients. This host-directed approach extended the results of pathogen-oriented microbiological and PCR diagnostics: a specific antibody response to additional bacteria was frequently observed, indicating unrecognised poly-microbial invasion. This might explain some cases of failed, seemingly targeted antibiotic treatment

Different Gain/Loss Sensitivity and Social Adaptation Ability in Gifted Adolescents during a Public Goods Game

Gifted adolescents are considered to have high IQs with advanced mathematical and logical performances, but are often thought to suffer from social isolation or emotional mal-adaptation to the social group. The underlying mechanisms that cause stereotypic portrayals of gifted adolescents are not well known. We aimed to investigate behavioral performance of gifted adolescents during social decision-making tasks to assess their affective and social/non-social cognitive abilities. We examined cooperation behaviors of 22 gifted and 26 average adolescents during an iterative binary public goods (PG) game, a multi-player social interaction game, and analyzed strategic decision processes that include cooperation and free-riding. We found that the gifted adolescents were more cooperative than average adolescents. Particularly, comparing the strategies for the PG game between the two groups, gifted adolescents were less sensitive to loss, yet were more sensitive to gain. Additionally, the behavioral characteristics of average adolescents, such as low trust of the group and herding behavior, were not found in gifted adolescents. These results imply that gifted adolescents have a high cognitive ability but a low ability to process affective information or to adapt in social groups compared with average adolescents. We conclude that gain/loss sensitivity and the ability to adapt in social groups develop to different degrees in average and gifted adolescents