Applied statistics: A review

The main phases of applied statistical work are discussed in general terms. The account starts with the clarification of objectives and proceeds through study design, measurement and analysis to interpretation. An attempt is made to extract some general notions.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS113 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Concepts and a case study for a flexible class of graphical Markov models

With graphical Markov models, one can investigate complex dependences, summarize some results of statistical analyses with graphs and use these graphs to understand implications of well-fitting models. The models have a rich history and form an area that has been intensively studied and developed in recent years. We give a brief review of the main concepts and describe in more detail a flexible subclass of models, called traceable regressions. These are sequences of joint response regressions for which regression graphs permit one to trace and thereby understand pathways of dependence. We use these methods to reanalyze and interpret data from a prospective study of child development, now known as the Mannheim Study of Children at Risk. The two related primary features concern cognitive and motor development, at the age of 4.5 and 8 years of a child. Deficits in these features form a sequence of joint responses. Several possible risks are assessed at birth of the child and when the child reached age 3 months and 2 years.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, 7 tables; invited, refereed chapter in a boo

Frequentist statistics as a theory of inductive inference

After some general remarks about the interrelation between philosophical and statistical thinking, the discussion centres largely on significance tests. These are defined as the calculation of $p$-values rather than as formal procedures for ``acceptance'' and ``rejection.'' A number of types of null hypothesis are described and a principle for evidential interpretation set out governing the implications of $p$-values in the specific circumstances of each application, as contrasted with a long-run interpretation. A variety of more complicated situations are discussed in which modification of the simple $p$-value may be essential.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000000400 in the IMS Lecture Notes--Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Another self-similar blast wave: Early time asymptote with shock heated electrons and high thermal conductivity

Accurate approximations are presented for the self-similar structures of nonradiating blast waves with adiabatic ions, isothermal electrons, and equation ion and electron temperatures at the shock. The cases considered evolve in cavities with power law ambient densities (including the uniform density case) and have negligible external pressure. The results provide the early time asymptote for systems with shock heating of electrons and strong thermal conduction. In addition, they provide analytical results against which two fluid numerical hydrodynamic codes can be checked

Revealing local failed supernovae with neutrino telescopes

We study the detectability of neutrino bursts from nearby direct black hole-forming collapses (failed supernovae) at Megaton detectors. Due to their high energetics, these bursts could be identified - by the time coincidence of N >= 2 or N >= 3 events within a ~ 1 s time window - from as far as ~ 4-5 Mpc away. This distance encloses several supernova-rich galaxies, so that failed supernova bursts could be detected at a rate of up to one per decade, comparable to the expected rate of the more common, but less energetic, neutron star-forming collapses. Thus, the detection of a failed supernova within the lifetime of a Mt detector is realistic. It might give the first evidence of direct black hole formation, with important implications on the physics of this phenomenon.Comment: LaTeX, 4 pages, 4 figures; minor changes to the text, results unchange

Saturn S-IB stage Final static test report, stage S-IB-4

Acceptance static test firing data for Saturn flight stage S-IB-