Network Sensitivity of Systemic Risk

A growing body of studies on systemic risk in financial markets has emphasized the key importance of taking into consideration the complex interconnections among financial institutions. Much effort has been put in modeling the contagion dynamics of financial shocks, and to assess the resilience of specific financial markets - either using real network data, reconstruction techniques or simple toy networks. Here we address the more general problem of how shock propagation dynamics depends on the topological details of the underlying network. To this end we consider different realistic network topologies, all consistent with balance sheets information obtained from real data on financial institutions. In particular, we consider networks of varying density and with different block structures, and diversify as well in the details of the shock propagation dynamics. We confirm that the systemic risk properties of a financial network are extremely sensitive to its network features. Our results can aid in the design of regulatory policies to improve the robustness of financial markets

Network sensitivity of systemic risk

A growing body of studies on systemic risk in financial markets has emphasized the key importance of taking into consideration the complex interconnections among financial institutions. Much effort has been put into modeling the contagion dynamics of financial shocks and into assessing the resilience of specific financial markets, either using real network data, reconstruction techniques or simple toy networks. Here, we address the more general problem of how shock propagation dynamics depend on the topological details of the underlying network. To this end, we consider different realistic network topologies, all consistent with balance sheet information obtained from real data on financial institutions. In particular, we consider networks of varying density and with different block structures. In addition, we diversify in the details of the shock propagation dynamics. We confirm that the systemic risk properties of a financial network are extremely sensitive to its network features. Our results can aid in the design of regulatory policies to improve the robustness of financial markets

Stress-testing the resilience of the Austrian healthcare system using agent-based simulation

As mass quarantines, absences due to sickness, or other shocks thin out patient-physician networks, the system might be pushed to a tipping point where it loses its ability to deliver care. Here, the authors propose a data-driven framework to quantify regional resilience to such shocks via an agent-based model

Avoiding axillary dissection in breast cancer surgery : a randomized trial to assess the role of axillary radiotherapy

Background: The need to dissect axillary nodes in patients with early breast cancer and clinically negative axilla remains controversial. The aim of the study was to assess the role of axillary radiotherapy (RT) in reducing axillary metastases in patients with early breast cancer who did not receive axillary dissection. Patients and methods: From 1995 to 1998, 435 patients over 45 years old with breast cancer up to 1.2 cm and no palpable axillary nodes were randomized 214 to breast conservation without axillary treatment and 221 to breast conservation plus axillary RT. Results: After a median follow-up of 63 months, overt axillary metastases were fewer than expected: three cases in the no axillary treatment group (1.5%) and one in the RT group (0.5%). Expected cases were 43 in the no axillary treatment group and 10 in the RT group. Rates of distant metastases and local failures were low, and 5-year disease free survival was 96.0% (95% confidence interval, 94.1%-97.9%) without significant differences between the two arms. Conclusions: This study suggests that occult axillary metastases might never become clinically overt and axillary dissection might be avoided in patients with small carcinomas and a clinically negative axilla. Axillary RT seems to protect the patients from axillary recurrence almost completely

Coseismic effects of the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence: first geological results

Since the beginning of the ongoing Amatrice seismic sequence on August 24, 2016, initiated by a Mw 6.0 normal faulting earthquake, the EMERGEO Working Group (an INGV team devoted to earthquake aftermath geological survey) set off to investigate any coseismic effects on the natural environment. Up to now, we surveyed about 750 km2 and collected more than 3200 geological observations as differently oriented tectonic fractures together with intermediate- to small- sized landslides, that were mapped in the whole area. The most impressive coseismic evidence was found along the known active Mt. Vettore fault system, where surface ruptures with clear vertical/horizontal offset were observed for more than 5 km, while unclear and discontinuous coseismic features were recorded along the Laga Mts. Fault systems