Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?

This paper presents a new explanation for the negative correlation between ex post real interest rates and inflation found in earlier empirical studies. We begin by showing that there is a strong negative correlation between the permanent movements in ex post real interest rates and inflation. We argue that such a correlation can arise when people incorporate anticipated shifts in inflation policy into their expectations. Under these circumstances, a shift to lower (higher) inflation will lead to systematically higher (lower) ex post real rates. Using new time series techniques we are able to reject the hypothesis that nominal interest rates were unaffected by anticipated switches in inflation policy in the post-war era. To evaluate the impact of these switches, we then calculate the effects of inflationary expectations upon real rates using a Markov switching model of inflation. Inflation forecasts based upon the estimates of this rational model behave similarly to inflation forecasts from the Livingston survey. When ex ante real interest rates are identified with the Markov models of inflation, we find that ex ante real interest rate does not contain permanent shocks, nor is it related to permanent shocks in inflation.

On Horizontal and Vertical Separation in Hierarchical Text Classification

Hierarchy is a common and effective way of organizing data and representing their relationships at different levels of abstraction. However, hierarchical data dependencies cause difficulties in the estimation of "separable" models that can distinguish between the entities in the hierarchy. Extracting separable models of hierarchical entities requires us to take their relative position into account and to consider the different types of dependencies in the hierarchy. In this paper, we present an investigation of the effect of separability in text-based entity classification and argue that in hierarchical classification, a separation property should be established between entities not only in the same layer, but also in different layers. Our main findings are the followings. First, we analyse the importance of separability on the data representation in the task of classification and based on that, we introduce a "Strong Separation Principle" for optimizing expected effectiveness of classifiers decision based on separation property. Second, we present Hierarchical Significant Words Language Models (HSWLM) which capture all, and only, the essential features of hierarchical entities according to their relative position in the hierarchy resulting in horizontally and vertically separable models. Third, we validate our claims on real-world data and demonstrate that how HSWLM improves the accuracy of classification and how it provides transferable models over time. Although discussions in this paper focus on the classification problem, the models are applicable to any information access tasks on data that has, or can be mapped to, a hierarchical structure.Comment: Full paper (10 pages) accepted for publication in proceedings of ACM SIGIR International Conference on the Theory of Information Retrieval (ICTIR'16

Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Struct

Most studies of the expectations theory of the term structure reject the model. However, the significance of the rejections depend strongly upon the form of the test. In this paper, we use the pattern of rejection across maturities to back out the implied behavior of time-varying risk premia and/or market forecasts. We then use a new technique to test whether stationary risk premia alone can be responsible for these rejections. Surprisirj1y, this test is rejected for short maturities up to 6 months, suggesting that time-varying risk premia do not explain it all. We also describe hew this method can be used to test other asset pricing relationships.

Trends in Expected Returns in Currency and Bond Markets

Under conventional notions about rational expectations and market efficiency, expected returns differ from the actual expost returns by a forecast error that is uncorrelated with current information. In this paper, we describe how small departures from conventional notions of rational expectations and market efficiency can produce trends in excess returns. These trends are in addition to the trends typically found in the level of asset prices themselves. We report strong evidence for the presence of additional trends in excess foreign exchange and bond returns. We also estimate the additional trend component in excess returns on foreign exchange and find that it varied between -.8% and 1% for one month returns and between -6% and 8% for three month returns.

A mechanical fastening technique development for application in space Final report

Mechanical fastening technique development for aerospace applicatio

Viking orbiter stereo imaging catalog

The extremely long mission of the two Viking Orbiter spacecraft produced a wealth of photos of surface features. Many of these photos can be used to form stereo images allowing the student of Mars to examine a subject in three dimensional. This catalog is a technical guide to the use of stereo coverage within the complex Viking imaging data set

Getting on the E List: E-Mail Use in a Community of Service Provider

This case examines how a community of organizations providing service to people experiencing homelessness made use of an electronic mail list. Current economic conditions have encouraged organizations in various sectors—including nonprofits—that might normally compete for scarce resources to collaborate with one another to increase their chances of survival. One set of tools likely to be of value in such relationships includes various online discussion technologies. An examination of this community’s email list use over a three-year period suggests a somewhat complex picture regarding technology use. More specifically, some issues both constrain and enable use. Additionally, seemingly basic and minimal uses of the list provided not only the greatest functionality for the users, but also led to several unanticipated consequences for those involved

Large-scale survey to estimate the prevalence of disorders for 192 Kennel Club registered breeds

Abstract Background Pedigree or purebred dogs are often stated to have high prevalence of disorders which are commonly assumed to be a consequence of inbreeding and selection for exaggerated features. However, few studies empirically report and rank the prevalence of disorders across breeds although such data are of critical importance in the prioritisation of multiple health concerns, and to provide a baseline against which to explore changes over time. This paper reports an owner survey that gathered disorder information on Kennel Club registered pedigree dogs, regardless of whether these disorders received veterinary care. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of disorders among pedigree dogs overall and, where possible, determine any variation among breeds. Results This study included morbidity data on 43,005 live dogs registered with the Kennel Club. Just under two thirds of live dogs had no reported diseases/conditions. The most prevalent diseases/conditions overall were lipoma (4.3%; 95% confidence interval 4.13-4.52%), skin (cutaneous) cyst (3.1%; 2.94-3.27%) and hypersensitivity (allergic) skin disorder (2.7%; 2.52-2.82%). For the most common disorders in the most represented breeds, 90 significant differences between the within breed prevalence and the overall prevalence are reported. Conclusion The results from this study have added vital epidemiological data on disorders in UK dogs. It is anticipated that these results will contribute to the forthcoming Breed Health & Conservation Plans, a Kennel Club initiative aiming to assist in the identification and prioritisation of breeding selection objectives for health and provide advice to breeders/owners regarding steps that may be taken to minimise the risk of the disease/disorders. Future breed-specific studies are recommended to report more precise prevalence estimates within more breeds

Longevity and mortality in Kennel Club registered dog breeds in the UK in 2014

Abstract Background The domestic dog is one of the most diverse mammalian species, exhibiting wide variations in morphology, behaviour and morbidity across breeds. Therefore, it is not unexpected that breeds should also exhibit variation in mortality and longevity. While shorter longevity per se may not necessarily be a welfare issue, a generally foreshortened lifespan in a breed that is accompanied by a high prevalence of a particular cause of death may reveal potentially serious welfare concerns and highlight scope to improve breed welfare. Survey data gathered directly from owners offer useful insights into canine longevity and mortality that can support the overall evidence base for welfare reforms within breeds. Results Mortality data on 5663 deceased dogs registered with the UK Kennel Club were collected from an owner-based survey. The most commonly reported causes of death were old age (13.8%), unspecified cancer (8.7%) and heart failure (4.9%); with 5.1% of deaths reported as unknown cause. Overall median age at death was 10.33 years (interquartile range: 7.17–12.83 years). Breeds varied widely in median longevity overall from the West Highland Terrier (12.71 years) to the Dobermann Pinscher (7.67 years). There was also wide variation in the prevalence of some common causes of death among breeds, and in median longevity across the causes of death. Conclusion Substantial variation in the median lifespan and the prominent causes of death exists across breeds. This study has identified some breeds with both a low median lifespan and also a high proportional mortality for one or more specific causes of death that should be considered as both potential welfare concerns as well as opportunities for improvement