A cereal problem? What the current chronology of early cereal domesticates might tell us about changes in late fifth and early fourth millennium cal BC Ireland and Britain

In the years since the last volume on plant domesticates in Ireland and Britain in the fourth millennium[AQ1] cal BC (Fairburn, A., ed. [2000]. Plants in Neolithic Britain and Beyond. Oxford: Oxbow)[AQ2], a number of significant changes have occurred in archaeological practice. These have included the routine application of a range of archaeological science techniques, including Bayesian statistical modelling. During the same period, large-scale sampling strategies in developer-led professional practice, and especially on large infrastructure projects, have increased the available materials for study. This paper will present a new analysis of radiocarbon results from direct measurements on domesticated plant remains from Ireland and Britain to explore what these can tell us about the nature of the changes in the archaeological record at this time. Cereals may appear after the introduction of practices including monuments in the form of causewayed enclosures, tombs and post-and-slot-built structures, in several regions. This approach is new because it unpacks the ‘Neolithic package’, by comparing direct estimates on plant domesticates with the appearance of other forms of material culture and new site types. ‘Unpacking the package’ here (or in other periods critically engaging with culture historic-derived analytical constructs) is important in three ways, which will be discussed in this paper. As well as allowing us to examine the fine-grained nature of changes, developments in chronological modelling should cause us to re-examine how useful our existing terms of engagement are; we need to think not only about the changes we can produce in the sequence of archaeological knowledge, but also in the structure of it

Modeling the Past: The Paleoethnological Evidence

This chapter considers the earliest Paleolithic, Oldowan (Mode 1), and Acheulean (Mode 2) cultures of the Old Continent and the traces left by the earliest hominids since their departure from Africa. According to the most recent archaeological data, they seem to have followed two main dispersal routes across the Arabian Peninsula toward the Levant, to the north, and the Indian subcontinent, to the east. According to recent discoveries at Dmanisi in the Caucasus, the first Paleolithic settlement of Europe is dated to some 1.75 Myr ago, which indicates that the first “out of Africa” took place at least slightly before this date. The data available for Western Europe show that the first Paleolithic sites can be attributed to the period slightly before 1.0 Myr ago. The first well-defined “structural remains” so far discovered in Europe are those of Isernia La Pineta in Southern Italy, where a semicircular artificial platform made of stone boulders and animal bones has been excavated. The first hand-thrown hunting weapons come from the site of Scho¨ningen in north Germany, where the first occurrence of wooden spears, more than 2 m long, has been recorded from a site attributed to some 0.37 Myr ago. Slightly later began the regular control of fire. Although most of the archaeological finds of these ages consist of chipped stone artifacts, indications of art seem to be already present in the Acheulean of Africa and the Indian subcontinent

Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: the 'optimal thermal causal path' method

We introduce a novel non-parametric methodology to test for the dynamical time evolution of the lag-lead structure between two arbitrary time series. The method consists of constructing a distance matrix based on the matching of all sample data pairs between the two time series. Then, the lag-lead structure is searched for as the optimal path in the distance matrix landscape that minimizes the total mismatch between the two time series, and that obeys a one-to-one causal matching condition. To make the solution robust to the presence of a large amount of noise that may lead to spurious structures in the distance matrix landscape, we generalize this optimal search by introducing a fuzzy search by sampling over all possible paths, each path being weighted according to a multinomial logit or equivalently Boltzmann factor proportional to the exponential of the global mismatch of this path. We present the efficient transfer matrix method that solves the problem and test it on simple synthetic examples to demonstrate its properties and usefulness compared with the standard running-time cross-correlation method. We then apply our 'optimal thermal causal path' method to the question of the lag-dependence between the US stock market and the treasury bond yields and confirm our earlier results on an arrow of the stock markets preceding the Federal Reserve Funds' adjustments, as well as the yield rates at short maturities in the period 2000-2003. Our application of this technique to inflation, inflation change, GDP growth rate and unemployment rate unearths non-trivial lag relationships: the GDP changes lead inflation especially since the 1980s, inflation changes leads GDP only in the 1980 decade, and inflation leads unemployment rates since the 1970s. In addition, our approach seems to detect multiple competing lag structures in which one can have inflation leading GDP with a certain lag time and GDP feeding back/leading inflation with another lag time.Econophysics, Causality, Correlation, Thermal average, Time series,