The opportunity prior: a proof-based prior for criminal cases

One of the greatest challenges to the use of probabilistic reasoning in the assessment of criminal evidence is the ‘problem of the prior’, i.e. the difficulty in establishing an acceptable prior probability of guilt. Even strong supporters of a Bayesian approach have often preferred to ignore priors and focus on the likelihood ratio (LR) of the evidence. But to calculate if the probability of guilt, given the evidence reaches the probability required for conviction (the standard of proof), the LR has to be combined with a prior. In this article, we propose a solution to the ‘problem of the prior’: the defendant shall be treated as a member of the set of ‘possible perpetrators’ defined as the people who had the same or better opportunity as the defendant to commit the crime. For this purpose, we introduce the concept of an ‘extended crime scene’. The number of people who had the same or better opportunity as the defendant is the number of people who were just as close or closer to the crime scene, in time and space. We demonstrate how the opportunity prior is incorporated into a generic Bayesian network model that allows us to integrate other evidence about the case

The Opportunity Prior: A Simple and Practical Solution to the Prior Probability Problem for Legal Cases

One of the greatest impediments to the use of probabilistic reasoning in legal arguments is the difficulty in agreeing on an appropriate prior probability for the ultimate hypothesis, (in criminal cases this is normally “Defendant is guilty of the crime for which he/she is accused”). Even strong supporters of a Bayesian approach prefer to ignore priors and focus instead on considering only the likelihood ratio (LR) of the evidence. But the LR still requires the decision maker (be it a judge or juror during trial, or anybody helping to determine beforehand whether a case should proceed to trial) to consider their own prior; without it the LR has limited value. We show that, in a large class of cases, it is possible to arrive at a realistic prior that is also as consistent as possible with the legal notion of ‘innocent until proven guilty’. The approach can be considered as a formalisation of the ‘island problem’ whereby if it is known the crime took place on an island when n people were present, then each of the people on the island has an equal prior probability 1/n of having carried out the crime. Our prior is based on simple location and time parameters that determine both a) the crime scene/time (within which it is certain the crime took place) and b) the extended crime scene/time which is the ‘smallest’ within which it is certain the suspect was known to have been ‘closest’ in location/time to the crime scene. The method applies to cases where we assume a crime has taken place and that it was committed by one person against one other person (e.g. murder, assault, robbery). The paper considers both the practical and legal implications of the approach. We demonstrate how the opportunity prior probability is naturally incorporated into a generic Bayesian network model that allows us to integrate other evidence about the case

Understanding the dynamics of Toll-like Receptor 5 response to flagellin and its regulation by estradiol

© 2017 The Author(s). Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are major players of the innate immune system. Once activated, they trigger a signalling cascade that leads to NF-ΰ B translocation from the cytoplasm to the nucleus. Single cell analysis shows that NF-ΰ B signalling dynamics are a critical determinant of transcriptional regulation. Moreover, the outcome of innate immune response is also affected by the cross-talk between TLRs and estrogen signalling. Here, we characterized the dynamics of TLR5 signalling, responsible for the recognition of flagellated bacteria, and those changes induced by estradiol in its signalling at the single cell level. TLR5 activation in MCF7 cells induced a single and sustained NF-k B translocation into the nucleus that resulted in high NF-k B transcription activity. The overall magnitude of NF-k B transcription activity was not influenced by the duration of the stimulus. No significant changes are observed in the dynamics of NF-k B translocation to the nucleus when MCF7 cells are incubated with estradiol. However, estradiol significantly decreased NF-k B transcriptional activity while increasing TLR5-mediated AP-1 transcription. The effect of estradiol on transcriptional activity was dependent on the estrogen receptor activated. This fine tuning seems to occur mainly in the nucleus at the transcription level rather than affecting the translocation of the NF-k B transcription factor

IKK/NF-κB regulates skeletal myogenesis via a signaling switch to inhibit differentiation and promote mitochondrial biogenesis

Nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) is involved in multiple skeletal muscle disorders, but how it functions in differentiation remains elusive given that both anti- and promyogenic activities have been described. In this study, we resolve this by showing that myogenesis is controlled by opposing NF-κB signaling pathways. We find that myogenesis is enhanced in MyoD-expressing fibroblasts deficient in classical pathway components RelA/p65, inhibitor of κB kinase β (IKKβ), or IKKγ. Similar increases occur in myoblasts lacking RelA/p65 or IKKβ, and muscles from RelA/p65 or IKKβ mutant mice also contain higher fiber numbers. Moreover, we show that during differentiation, classical NF-κB signaling decreases, whereas the induction of alternative members IKKα, RelB, and p52 occurs late in myogenesis. Myotube formation does not require alternative signaling, but it is important for myotube maintenance in response to metabolic stress. Furthermore, overexpression or knockdown of IKKα regulates mitochondrial content and function, suggesting that alternative signaling stimulates mitochondrial biogenesis. Together, these data reveal a unique IKK/NF-κB signaling switch that functions to both inhibit differentiation and promote myotube homeostasis

Adipose tissue pathways involved in weight loss of cancer cachexia

White adipose tissue (WAT) constitutes our most expandable tissue and largest endocrine organ secreting hundreds of polypeptides collectively termed adipokines. Changes in WAT mass induce alterations in adipocyte secretion and function, which are linked to disturbed whole-body metabolism. Although the mechanisms controlling this are not clear they are dependent on changes in gene expression, a complex process which is regulated at several levels. Results in recent years have highlighted the role of small non-coding RNA molecules termed microRNAs (miRNAs), which regulate gene expression via post-transcriptional mechanisms. The aim of this thesis was to characterize global gene expression levels and describe novel miRNAs and adipokines controlling the function of human WAT in conditions with pathological increases or decreases in WAT mass. Obesity and cancer cachexia were selected as two models since they are both clinically relevant and characterized by involuntary changes in WAT mass. In Study I, expressional analyses were performed in subcutaneous WAT from cancer patients with or without cachexia and obese versus non-obese subjects. In total, 425 transcripts were found to be regulated in cancer cachexia. Pathway analyses based on this set of genes revealed that processes involving extracellular matrix, actin cytoskeleton and focal adhesion were significantly downregulated, whereas fatty acid metabolism was upregulated comparing cachectic with weight-stable cancer subjects. Furthermore, by overlapping these results with microarray data from an obesity study, many transcripts were found to be reciprocally regulated comparing the two conditions. This suggests that WAT gene expression in cancer cachexia and obesity are regulated by similar, albeit opposing, mechanisms. In Study II, the focus was on the family of fibroblast growth factors (FGFs), members of which have recently been implicated in the development of obesity and insulin resistance. A retrospective analysis of global gene expression data identified several FGFs (FGF1/2/7/9/13/18) to be expressed in WAT. However, only one, FGF1, was actively secreted from WAT and predominantly so from the adipocyte fraction. Moreover, FGF1 release was increased in obese compared to non-obese subjects, but was not normalized by weight loss. Although the clinical significance of these findings is not yet clear, it can be hypothesized that FGF1 may play a role in WAT growth, possibly by promoting fat cell proliferation and/or differentiation. In Study III, we identified adipose miRNAs regulated in obesity. Out of eleven miRNAs regulated by changes in body fat mass, ten controlled the production of the pro-inflammatory chemoattractant chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 2 (CCL2) when overexpressed in fat cells and for two, miR-126 and -193b, signaling circuits were defined. In Study IV, a novel adipokine, semaphorin 3C (SEMA3C), was identified by combining transcriptome and secretome data. Detailed studies focusing on SEMA3C revealed that this factor was secreted from adipocytes and induced the expression of extracellular matrix and matricellular genes in preadipocytes. Furthermore, SEMA3C mRNA levels correlated with interstitial fibrosis and insulin resistance in WAT derived from subjects with a wide range in BMI. In summary, the results presented in this thesis have delineated transcriptional alterations in WAT in two clinically relevant conditions, obesity and cancer cachexia. This has allowed the identification of novel adipokines and microRNAs with potential pathophysiological importance. These findings form the basis for further studies aiming at understanding the central role of WAT in disorders associated with metabolic complications

Plexin D1 determines body fat distribution by regulating the type V collagen microenvironment in visceral adipose tissue

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America112144363-436

Cardiovascular roles of estrogen receptors: insights gained from knockout models

The effects of estrogen are mediated through two functionally distinct receptors, estrogen receptor α (ER- α ), and estrogen receptor β (ER- β ), both of which are expressed in the cardiovascular system. The etiology of cardiovascular disease is believed to result in part from the loss of endogenous estrogen, indicating that estrogen and its receptors may play important roles in the prevention of cardiovascular disease in women

Prototype effect and the persuasiveness of generalizations

An argument that makes use of a generalization activates the prototype for the category used in the generalization. We conducted two experiments that investigated how the activation of the prototype affects the persuasiveness of the argument. The results of the experiments suggest that the features of the prototype overshadow and partly overwrite the actual facts of the case. The case is, to some extent, judged as if it had the features of the prototype instead of the features it actually has. This prototype effect increases the persuasiveness of the argument in situations where the audience finds the judgment more warranted for the prototype than for the actual case (positive prototype effect), but decreases persuasiveness in situations where the audience finds the judgment less warranted for the prototype than for the actual case (negative prototype effect)