Exploring Vulnerability and Interdependency of UK Infrastructure Using Key-Linkages Analysis

It has been argued the UK has experienced significant underinvestment in critical infrastructure over the last two decades. This in turn has resulted in infrastructure that is less capable of assisting the UK economy to grow. This article seeks to augment the relevant evidence by under-taking an in-depth analysis of the inter-linkages and economic contributions from infrastructure within the UK. It explores the relationship between nine infrastructure sectors and how these sectors contribute to the rest of the UK economy using key-linkage analysis. Each infrastructure sector is shown to be unique in the way it interacts with other economic sectors and in the form of contribution it makes to the economy overall. Infrastructure is a necessary and important part of economic development. The analysis finds that over the last 23 years there has been a decline in the relative economic contribution from infrastructure to UK GVA. Only two infrastructure sectors increased their relative contribution to GVA since 1992. These were the water transport sector and sewerage and sanitary services sector. Railway transport and gas distribution have had the largest relative decline in contribution towards UK GVA with relative contributions decreasing by over 50% since 1992. The three most important infrastructure sectors contributing to UK GDP are land transport, electricity production and distribution and telecommunications respectively.Funding for this research was provided by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) grant number EP/101344X/1 through the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11067-015-9302-

Building performance evaluation and certification in the UK: a critical review of SAP?

Improving the efficiency and performance of the UK residential sector is now necessary for meeting future energy and climate change targets. Building Performance Evaluation and Certification (BPEC) tools are vital for estimating and recommending cost effective improvements to building energy efficiency and lowering overall emissions. In the UK, building performance is estimated using the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) for new dwellings and Reduced SAP (RdSAP) for existing dwellings. Using a systems based approach we show there are many opportunities for improving the effectiveness of BPEC tools. In particular, if the building stock is going to meet future energy and climate change targets the system driving building energy efficiency will need to become more efficient. In order to achieve this goal, building performance standards across Europe are compared highlighting the most effective strategies where they are found. It is shown that the large variance between estimated and actual energy performance from dwellings in the UK may be preventing the adoption of bottom-up energy efficiency measures. We show that despite popular belief, SAP and RdSAP do not estimate building energy efficiency but instead attempt to estimate the cost-effective performance of a building and thus create perverse incentives that may lead to additional CO2 emissions. In this regard, the SAP standard confounds cost-effectiveness, energy efficiency and environmental performance giving an inadequate estimate of all three policy objectives. Important contributions for improving measurement, analysis, synthesis and certification of building performance characteristics are offered.Efficienc

A reevaluation of cancer incidence near the Three Mile Island nuclear plant: the collision of evidence and assumptions.

Previous studies concluded that there was no evidence that the 1979 nuclear accident at Three Mile Island (TMI) affected cancer incidence in the surrounding area; however, there were logical and methodological problems in earlier reports that led us to reconsider data previously collected. A 10-mile area around TMI was divided into 69 study tracts, which were assigned radiation dose estimates based on radiation reading and models of atmospheric dispersion. Incident cancers from 1975 to 1985 were ascertained from hospital records and assigned to study tracts. Associations between accident doses and incidence rates of leukemia, lung cancer, and all cancer were assessed using relative dose estimates calculated by the earlier investigators. Adjustments were made for age, sex, socioeconomic characteristics, and preaccident variation in incidence. Considering a 2-year latency, the estimated percent increase per dose unit +/- standard error was 0.020 +/- 0.012 for all cancer, 0.082 +/- 0.032 for lung cancer, and 0.116 +/- 0.067 for leukemia. Adjustment for socioeconomic variables increased the estimates to 0.034 +/- 0.013, 0.103 +/- 0.035, and 0.139 +/- 0.073 for all cancer, lung cancer, and leukemia, respectively. Associations were generally larger considering a 5-year latency, but were based on smaller numbers of cases. Results support the hypothesis that radiation doses are related to increased cancer incidence around TMI. The analysis avoids medical detection bias, but suffers from inaccurate dose classification; therefore, results may underestimate the magnitude of the association between radiation and cancer incidence. These associations would not be expected, based on previous estimates of near-background levels of radiation exposure following the accident

A panel model for predicting the diversity of internal temperatures from English dwellings

Using panel methods, a model for predicting daily mean internal temperature demand across a heterogeneous domestic building stock is developed. The model offers an important link that connects building stock models to human behaviour. It represents the first time a panel model has been used to estimate the dynamics of internal temperature demand from the natural daily fluctuations of external temperature combined with important behavioural, socio-demographic and building efficiency variables. The model is able to predict internal temperatures across a heterogeneous building stock to within ~0.71°C at 95% confidence and explain 45% of the variance of internal temperature between dwellings. The model confirms hypothesis from sociology and psychology that habitual behaviours are important drivers of home energy consumption. In addition, the model offers the possibility to quantify take-back (direct rebound effect) owing to increased internal temperatures from the installation of energy efficiency measures. The presence of thermostats or thermostatic radiator valves (TRV) are shown to reduce average internal temperatures, however, the use of an automatic timer is statistically insignificant. The number of occupants, household income and occupant age are all important factors that explain a proportion of internal temperature demand. Households with children or retired occupants are shown to have higher average internal temperatures than households who do not. As expected, building typology, building age, roof insulation thickness, wall U-value and the proportion of double glazing all have positive and statistically significant effects on daily mean internal temperature. In summary, the model can be used as a tool to predict internal temperatures or for making statistical inferences. However, its primary contribution offers the ability to calibrate existing building stock models to account for behaviour and socio-demographic effects making it possible to back-out more accurate predictions of domestic energy demand

The effects of internal radiation exposure on cancer mortality in nuclear workers at Rocketdyne/Atomics International.

We examined the effects of chronic exposure to radionuclides, primarily uranium and mixed-fission products, on cancer mortality in a retrospective cohort study of workers enrolled in the radiation-monitoring program of a nuclear research and development facility. Between 1950 and 1994, 2,297 workers were monitored for internal radiation exposures, and 441 workers died, 134 (30.4%) of them from cancer as the underlying cause. We calculated internal lung-dose estimates based on urinalysis and whole-body and lung counts reported for individual workers. We examined cancer mortality of workers exposed at different cumulative lung-dose levels using complete risk-set analysis for cohort data, adjusting for age, pay type, time since first radiation monitored, and external radiation. In addition, we examined the potential for confounding due to chemical exposures and smoking, explored whether external radiation exposure modifies the effects of internal exposure, and estimated effects after excluding exposures likely to have been unrelated to disease onset. Dose-response relations were observed for death from hemato- and lymphopoietic cancers and from upper aerodigestive tract cancers, adjusting for age, time since first monitored, pay type, and external (gamma) radiation dose. No association was found for other cancers, including cancers of the lung. Despite the small number of exposed deaths from specific cancer types and possible bias due to measurement error and confounding, the positive findings and strong dose-response gradients observed suggest carcinogenic effects of internal radiation to the upper aerodigestive tract and the blood and lymph system in this occupational cohort. However, causal inferences require replication of our results in other populations or confirmation with an extended follow-up of this cohort

Is the structure of 42Si understood?

A more detailed test of the implementation of nuclear forces that drive shell evolution in the pivotal nucleus \nuc{42}{Si} -- going beyond earlier comparisons of excited-state energies -- is important. The two leading shell-model effective interactions, SDPF-MU and SDPF-U-Si, both of which reproduce the low-lying \nuc{42}{Si}($2^+_1$) energy, but whose predictions for other observables differ significantly, are interrogated by the population of states in neutron-rich \nuc{42}{Si} with a one-proton removal reaction from \nuc{43}{P} projectiles at 81~MeV/nucleon. The measured cross sections to the individual \nuc{42}{Si} final states are compared to calculations that combine eikonal reaction dynamics with these shell-model nuclear structure overlaps. The differences in the two shell-model descriptions are examined and linked to predicted low-lying excited $0^+$ states and shape coexistence. Based on the present data, which are in better agreement with the SDPF-MU calculations, the state observed at 2150(13)~keV in \nuc{42}{Si} is proposed to be the ($0^+_2$) level.Comment: accepted in Physical Review Letter

Consumption-oriented policy instruments for fostering greenhouse gas mitigation

Most policy instruments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have focused on producers, and on the energy efficiency of buildings, vehicles and other products. Behavioural changes related to climate change also impact ‘in-use’ emissions, and potentially, emissions both ‘upstream’ (including from imported goods) and ‘downstream’ (eg disposal). Consumption-oriented policies may provide avenues to additional and cost-effective emission reductions, but are less prevalent, in part because of political sensitivities around government efforts to shape individual-level mitigation behaviour. In this paper, we explore policy instruments for encouraging low carbon behaviour in the EU context. Drawing on a literature survey and interviews, as part of the EU Carbon-CAP project, we develop a list of 33 potential instruments, present a systematic methodology for assessing their potential impact and feasibility, and apply this to rank instruments of most interest. Most instruments involve a clear trade-off between their potential impact and feasibility; about half feature in the top three scoring categories, many being voluntary approaches, which may be easier to implement, but with limited or highly uncertain impact. However, we identify a handful of top-scoring instruments that deserve far more policy attention. The complexity of consumer and corporate motivations and behaviours suggests that instruments should be trialled and monitored (e.g. in regions / individual States) before widespread introduction. Most would also be most effective when nested within wider policy packages, to address the varied behavioural motivations and stages of supply chains

Mental health and the media: from illness to wellbeing

The media are a main source of information about mental health for many people and an ever-growing body of literature is evaluating their coverage of the topic. To help keep track of such research, several comprehensive but now dated literature reviews have been published. We assess more recent studies (2007-2017) and suggest future directions by integrating (1) the ‘circuit of mass communication’ model from media and communication studies which posits that production, content and reception need to be analysed for an in-depth understanding of the media, (2) the holistic view of mental health as comprising both illness and wellbeing and (3) the critical psychiatry literature questioning the assumptions underlying psychiatric knowledge and practice. We find that recent studies have focused on content and ‘the illness side’ of mental health by examining the representation of particular mental disorders and events involving individuals with specific diagnoses. We identify as a promising development the growing interest in ‘the wellbeing side’ of mental health whereby authors have started to analyse recovery messages. We invite more production and reception research and more critical content studies which use diagnostic labels cautiously and analyse the representation of people with mental health problems as the victims of violence

Parents’ engagement in an Australian school- and home-based group RCT to reduce children’s sitting time and promote physical activity: Transform-Us!

Session - S34 Involvement of parents in multicomponent school-based interventions targeting energy balance related behaviours among children and adolescents: Lessons learned from process evaluation: abstract S34.2Conference Theme: Promoting Healthy Eating and Activity WorldwidePURPOSE: Transform-Us! was a 3-year group RCT aiming to determine the effectiveness of strategies to reduce 8-year old Australian children’s sedentary behaviour (SB) or promote their physical activity (PA), or both (PA+SB) compared with usual practice (C) at school and home. METHOD: Process evaluation data were collected at post--‐intervention (T3) Nov/Dec 2011. Nine newsletters per year were …postprin

Strategies to promote children\u27s school based physical activity : Transform-Us! Mid-intervention findings

Session 202 - School based interventions: paper 276This journal suppl. entitled: Be Avtive 2012Many children engage in suboptimal levels of PA despite the associated health risks. Schools (n=20) in the Transform-Us! program were randomized to one of four intervention arms that target increases in children’s PA (PA), reductions in sedentary behavior (SB), both behaviors (SB+PA) or control current practice (C). This examination focuses on the PA promotion strategies employed in the PA and SB+PA arms compared with the C arm. To promote children’s PA each PA and SB+PA class was provided with sporting and circus equipment; asphalt line markings were installed at the school; and teachers were asked to encourage PA. Grade 3 children at participating schools were invited to take part in evaluation assessments including the completion of a self-report survey. Findings from the PA promotion strategy questions at baseline (Feb–June 2010), and T2 (Nov/Dec) are reported here. Children (n=425, 55% female) were asked to respond (yes/no) to five items asking about social support for PA from their class teacher, which were then summed to create a ‘teacher social support’ scale. Children were also asked to indicate if ‘there are markings on the walls or on the school playground to help us play games’ (perceived availability of line markings); if they are ‘allowed to use school sports equipment during recess and lunch breaks’ (perceived accessibility of sports equipment); and how much they like ‘the areas to play in at school’ using a 5-point Likert scale (perceived school environment). Between baseline and T2, teacher social support increased in both PA (1.7[1.4] vs 2.1[1.4]) and SB arms (1.9[1.4] vs 2.4[1.4) but declined in C (2.0[1.4] vs 1.7[1.5]). For all three arms, increases were seen in perceived availability of line markings (PA: 53.2% vs 69.4%; SB+PA: 59.3% vs 71.4%; C: 60.0% vs 69.8%); perceived accessibility of sport equipment (PA: 87.7% vs 97.2%: SB+PA: 80.7 vs 94%; C: 85.4% vs 97.6%); and perceived school environment (PA: 1.44[0.9] vs 1.42[0.8]; SB+PA: 1.5[0.8] vs 1.6[0.7]; C: 1.4[0.9] vs 1.5[0.7]) between baseline and T2. All findings were significant at a 1% probability level. At the mid-intervention time point, findings suggest that PA strategies have increased perceived availability of line markings, accessibility of sport equipment, and perceived school environment in children allocated to the PA and SB+PA arms. However, there were also unexpected increases in the C arm for three out of four items. Post-intervention findings will add to these preliminary findings