WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!

The quantitative aspirations of economists and financial analysts have for many years been based on the belief that it should be possible to build models of economic systems - and financial markets in particular - that are as predictive as those in physics. While this perspective has led to a number of important breakthroughs in economics, "physics envy" has also created a false sense of mathematical precision in some cases. We speculate on the origins of physics envy, and then describe an alternate perspective of economic behavior based on a new taxonomy of uncertainty. We illustrate the relevance of this taxonomy with two concrete examples: the classical harmonic oscillator with some new twists that make physics look more like economics, and a quantitative equity market-neutral strategy. We conclude by offering a new interpretation of tail events, proposing an "uncertainty checklist" with which our taxonomy can be implemented, and considering the role that quants played in the current financial crisis.Comment: v3 adds 2 reference

Implementing natural capital credit risk assessment in agricultural lending

Agriculture has critical impacts and dependencies on natural capital, and agriculturallenders are therefore exposed to natural capital credit risk through their loans tofarmers. Currently, however, lenders lack any detailed guidance for assessing naturalcapital credit risk in agriculture and are challenged by the fact that the relevant material risks vary considerably by agricultural sector and geography. This paper developsa natural capital credit risk assessment framework based on a bottom‐up review ofthe material risks associated with natural capital impacts and dependencies forAustralian beef production. It demonstrates that implementing natural capital creditrisk assessment is feasible in agricultural lending, using a combination of quantitativeand qualitative inputs. Implementation challenges include the complexity and interconnectedness of natural capital processes, data availability and cost, spatial data analytical capacity, and the need for transformational change, both within lendingorganisations and across the banking sector

Multiple mechanisms mediating carbon monoxide inhibition of the voltage-gated K+ channel Kv1.5

The voltage-gated K+ channel plays key roles in the vasculature and in atrial excitability, and contributes to apoptosis in various tissues. In this study, we have explored its regulation by carbon monoxide (CO), a product of the cytoprotective heme oxygenase enzymes, and a recognized toxin. CO inhibited recombinant Kv1.5 expressed in HEK293 cells in a concentration-dependent manner which involved multiple signalling pathways. CO inhibition was partially reversed by superoxide dismutase mimetics, and by suppression of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species. CO also elevated intracellular nitric oxide (NO) levels. Prevention of NO formation also partially reversed CO inhibition of Kv1.5, as did inhibition of soluble guanylyl cyclase. CO also elevated intracellular peroxynitrite levels, and a peroxynitrite scavenger markedly attenuated the ability of CO to inhibit Kv1.5. CO caused nitrosylation of Kv1.5, an effect which was also observed in C331A and C346A mutant forms of the channel, which had previously been suggested as nitrosylation sites within Kv1.5. Augmentation of Kv1.5 via exposure to hydrogen peroxide was fully reversed by CO. Native Kv1.5 recorded in HL-1 murine atrial cells was also inhibited by CO. Action potentials recorded in HL-1 cells were increased in amplitude and duration by CO, an effect mimicked and occluded by pharmacological inhibition of Kv1.5. Our data indicate that Kv1.5 is a target for modulation by CO via multiple mechanisms. This regulation has important implications for diverse cellular functions, including excitability, contractility and apoptosis

Track D Social Science, Human Rights and Political Science

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138414/1/jia218442.pd

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030