Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the "high hazardous" category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures

The Case for a Low Extragalactic Gamma-ray Background

Measurements of the diffuse extragalactic gamma-ray background (EGRB) are complicated by a strong Galactic foreground. Estimates of the EGRB flux and spectrum, obtained by modeling the Galactic emission, have produced a variety of (sometimes conflicting) results. The latest analysis of the EGRET data found an isotropic flux I_x=1.45+-0.05 above 100 MeV, in units of 10^-5 s^-1 cm^-2 sr^-1. We analyze the EGRET data in search for robust constraints on the EGRB flux, finding the gamma-ray sky strongly dominated by Galactic foreground even at high latitudes, with no conclusive evidence for an additional isotropic component. The gamma-ray intensity measured towards the Galactic poles is similar to or lower than previous estimates of I_x. The high latitude profile of the gamma-ray data is disk-like for 40<|b[deg]|<70, and even steeper for |b|>70; overall it exhibits strong Galactic features and is well fit by a simple Galactic model. Based on the |b|>40 data we find that I_x<0.5 at a 99% confidence level, with evidence for a much lower flux. We show that correlations with Galactic tracers, previously used to identify the Galactic foreground and estimate I_x, are not satisfactory; the results depend on the tracers used and on the part of the sky examined, because the Galactic emission is not linear in the Galactic tracers and exhibits spectral variations across the sky. The low EGRB flux favored by our analysis places stringent limits on extragalactic scenarios involving gamma-ray emission, such as radiation from blazars, intergalactic shocks and production of ultra-high energy cosmic rays and neutrinos. We suggest methods by which future gamma-ray missions such as GLAST and AGILE could indirectly identify the EGRB.Comment: Accepted for publication in JCAP. Increased sizes of polar regions examined, and added discussion of spectral data. Results unchange

Planetary Dynamics and Habitable Planet Formation In Binary Star Systems

Whether binaries can harbor potentially habitable planets depends on several factors including the physical properties and the orbital characteristics of the binary system. While the former determines the location of the habitable zone (HZ), the latter affects the dynamics of the material from which terrestrial planets are formed (i.e., planetesimals and planetary embryos), and drives the final architecture of the planets assembly. In order for a habitable planet to form in a binary star system, these two factors have to work in harmony. That is, the orbital dynamics of the two stars and their interactions with the planet-forming material have to allow terrestrial planet formation in the habitable zone, and ensure that the orbit of a potentially habitable planet will be stable for long times. We have organized this chapter with the same order in mind. We begin by presenting a general discussion on the motion of planets in binary stars and their stability. We then discuss the stability of terrestrial planets, and the formation of potentially habitable planets in a binary-planetary system.Comment: 56 pages, 29 figures, chapter to appear in the book: Planets in Binary Star Systems (Ed. N. Haghighipour, Springer publishing company

Modular Lie algebras and the Gelfand-Kirillov conjecture

Let g be a finite dimensional simple Lie algebra over an algebraically closed field of characteristic zero. We show that if the Gelfand-Kirillov conjecture holds for g, then g has type A_n, C_n or G_2.Comment: 20 page

Bulge growth through disk instabilities in high-redshift galaxies

The role of disk instabilities, such as bars and spiral arms, and the associated resonances, in growing bulges in the inner regions of disk galaxies have long been studied in the low-redshift nearby Universe. There it has long been probed observationally, in particular through peanut-shaped bulges. This secular growth of bulges in modern disk galaxies is driven by weak, non-axisymmetric instabilities: it mostly produces pseudo-bulges at slow rates and with long star-formation timescales. Disk instabilities at high redshift (z>1) in moderate-mass to massive galaxies (10^10 to a few 10^11 Msun of stars) are very different from those found in modern spiral galaxies. High-redshift disks are globally unstable and fragment into giant clumps containing 10^8-10^9 Msun of gas and stars each, which results in highly irregular galaxy morphologies. The clumps and other features associated to the violent instability drive disk evolution and bulge growth through various mechanisms, on short timescales. The giant clumps can migrate inward and coalesce into the bulge in a few 10^8 yr. The instability in the very turbulent media drives intense gas inflows toward the bulge and nuclear region. Thick disks and supermassive black holes can grow concurrently as a result of the violent instability. This chapter reviews the properties of high-redshift disk instabilities, the evolution of giant clumps and other features associated to the instability, and the resulting growth of bulges and associated sub-galactic components.Comment: 37 pages, 9 figures. Invited refereed review to appear in "Galactic Bulges", E. Laurikainen, D. Gadotti, R. Peletier (eds.), Springe

Gravitational decoherence of planetary motions

We study the effect of the scattering of gravitational waves on planetary motions, say the motion of the Moon around the Earth. Though this effect has a negligible influence on dissipation, it dominates fluctuations and the associated decoherence mechanism, due to the very high effective temperature of the background of gravitational waves in our galactic environment.Comment: 6 pages, no figure, to appear in EuroPhysics Letters; needs `epl.cls