An ArcGIS Tool for Modeling the Climate Envelope with Feed-Forward ANN

This paper is about the development and the application of an ESRI ArcGIS tool which implements multi-layer, feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) to study the climate envelope of species. The supervised learning is achieved by backpropagation algorithm. Based on the distribution and the grids of the climate (and edaphic data) of the reference and future periods the tool predicts the future potential distribution of the studied species. The trained network can be saved and loaded. A modeling result based on the distribution of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) is presented as a case study

Strict Forest Reserve Research in the Margin of the Carpathians, the Vár-hegy Case-Study

Sixteen forest reserves are situated in the northern part of Hungary which belongs to the Carpathian region according to EURAC delimitation (Ruffini et al. 2006). These Hungarian forest reserves expand the natural forest remnant/forest reserve net of the Carpathians towards the lower hilly region, representing the deciduous beech and oak forest belts near their lower (xeric) distribution limits. This paper outlines the Hungarian forest reserves belonging to the Carpathian region and the preliminary results of current projects in the Vár-hegy Forest Reserve (Bükk Mts., Hungary) as a case study. The alteration of tree species composition was investigated here based on the reconstruction of forest history in the previous 130 years (management period) and analyses of forest stand inventory. In another project CO2 sequestration changes of these forest stands were modeled since the clear-cutting in the 1880th and carbon stored in the forest ecosystem compartments was estimated. Our results show that the forest reserve stands are presently in a transition state from the managed forest towards a more natural mixed forest with several age-classes

Drivers of grassland loss in Hungary during the post-socialist transformation (1987–1999)

The increase in the speed of land-cover change experienced worldwide is becoming a growing concern. Major socio-economic transitions, such as the breakdown of socialism in Europe, may lead to particularly high rates of landscape transformations. In this paper we examined the loss of semi-natural grasslands in Hungary between 1987 and 1999. We studied the relationship between 9 potential driving forces and the fate of grasslands using logistic GLMs. Grassland loss was found to be very high (1.31 % per year), which is far higher than either before or after this period. The most influential predictors of grassland loss were environmental and landscape characteristics (soil type, area of remnant grassland patches), and the socio-economic context (distance to paved road, and nearest settlement, human population density). Several processes and relationships can only be understood from a historical perspective (e.g. large extent of afforestation, strong decrease of soil water table). Grassland loss during the study period emerged as a consequence of survival strategies of individual farmers seeking adaptation to the changing environmental and socio-economic conditions, and not urbanization and agricultural intensification which are the main underlying drivers for the ongoing landscape transformations in most parts of the developed world. Though globalization increasingly influences local land use decisions , reconstructing and modelling recent landscape changes cannot be done without a proper understanding of local history and culture. Our analysis shows the importance of large-area yet high resolution landscape change research, which may reveal unexpected patterns of land cover change, undetected at coarser scales

Ungulate browsing shapes climate change impacts on forest biodiversity in Hungary

Climate change can result in a slow disappearance of forests dominated by less drought-tolerant native European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and oak species (Quercus spp.) and further area expansion of more drought-tolerant non-native black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) against those species in Hungary. We assumed that the shift in plant species composition was modified by selective ungulate browsing. Thus, we investigated which woody species are selected by browsing game. We have collected data on the species composition of the understory and the browsing impact on it in five different Hungarian even-aged forests between 2003 and 2005. Based on these investigations the non-native Robinia pseudoacacialiving under more favourable climatic conditions was generally preferred (Jacobs’ selectivity index: D=0.04±0.77), while the nativeFagus sylvatica and Quercus spp. (Q. petraea, Q. robur), both more vulnerable to increasing aridity, were avoided (D=-0.37±0.11;-0.79±0.56;-0.9±0.16; respectively) among target tree species. However, economically less or not relevant species, e.g. elderberry (Sambucus spp.), blackberry (Rubus spp.) or common dogwood (Cornus sanguinea) were the most preferred species (D=0.01±0.71; -0.12±0.58; -0.2±0.78, respectively). Our results imply that biodiversity conservation, i.e. maintaining or establishing a multi-species understory layer, can be a good solution to reduce the additional negative game impact on native target tree species suffering from drought. Due to preference for Robinia pseudoacaciaselective browsing can decelerate the penetration of this species into native forest habitats. We have to consider the herbivorous pressure of ungulates and their feeding preferences in planning our future multifunctional forests in the light of climate change impacts

The Macroecology of Sustainability

Global consumption rates of vital resources suggest that we have surpassed the capacity of the Earth to sustain current levels, much less future trajectories of growth in human population and economy