Testing the Prognostic Accuracy of the Updated Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model

Background We previously derived and validated a risk model to estimate mortality probability in children with septic shock (PERSEVERE; PEdiatRic SEpsis biomarkEr Risk modEl). PERSEVERE uses five biomarkers and age to estimate mortality probability. After the initial derivation and validation of PERSEVERE, we combined the derivation and validation cohorts (n = 355) and updated PERSEVERE. An important step in the development of updated risk models is to test their accuracy using an independent test cohort. Objective To test the prognostic accuracy of the updated version PERSEVERE in an independent test cohort. Methods Study subjects were recruited from multiple pediatric intensive care units in the United States. Biomarkers were measured in 182 pediatric subjects with septic shock using serum samples obtained during the first 24 hours of presentation. The accuracy of PERSEVERE 28-day mortality risk estimate was tested using diagnostic test statistics, and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) was used to test whether PERSEVERE adds information to a physiology-based scoring system. Results Mortality in the test cohort was 13.2%. Using a risk cut-off of 2.5%, the sensitivity of PERSEVERE for mortality was 83% (95% CI 62–95), specificity was 75% (68–82), positive predictive value was 34% (22–47), and negative predictive value was 97% (91–99). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 (0.70–0.92). The false positive subjects had a greater degree of organ failure burden and longer intensive care unit length of stay, compared to the true negative subjects. When adding PERSEVERE to a physiology-based scoring system, the net reclassification improvement was 0.91 (0.47–1.35; p<0.001). Conclusions The updated version of PERSEVERE estimates mortality probability reliably in a heterogeneous test cohort of children with septic shock and provides information over and above a physiology-based scoring system

Prospective clinical testing and experimental validation of the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model

Sepsis remains a major public health problem with no major therapeutic advances over the last several decades. The clinical and biological heterogeneity of sepsis have limited success of potential new therapies. Accordingly, there is considerable interest in developing a precision medicine approach to inform more rational development, testing, and targeting of new therapies. We previously developed the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model (PERSEVERE) to estimate mortality risk and proposed its use as a prognostic enrichment tool in sepsis clinical trials; prognostic enrichment selects patients based on mortality risk independent of treatment. Here, we show that PERSEVERE has excellent performance in a diverse cohort of children with septic shock with potential for use as a predictive enrichment strategy; predictive enrichment selects patients based on likely response to treatment. We demonstrate that the PERSEVERE biomarkers are reliably associated with mortality in mice challenged with experimental sepsis, thus providing an opportunity to test precision medicine strategies in the preclinical setting. Using this model, we tested two clinically feasible therapeutic strategies, guided by the PERSEVERE-based enrichment, and found that mice identified as high risk for mortality had a greater bacterial burden and could be rescued by higher doses of antibiotics. The association between higher pathogen burden and higher mortality risk was corroborated among critically ill children with septic shock. This bedside to bench to bedside approach provides proof of principle for PERSEVERE-guided application of precision medicine in sepsis

Transcriptomic profiles of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome phenotypes in pediatric critical influenza

BackgroundInfluenza virus is responsible for a large global burden of disease, especially in children. Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) is a life-threatening and fatal complication of severe influenza infection.MethodsWe measured RNA expression of 469 biologically plausible candidate genes in children admitted to North American pediatric intensive care units with severe influenza virus infection with and without MODS. Whole blood samples from 191 influenza-infected children (median age 6.4 years, IQR: 2.2, 11) were collected a median of 27 hours following admission; for 45 children a second blood sample was collected approximately seven days later. Extracted RNA was hybridized to NanoString mRNA probes, counts normalized, and analyzed using linear models controlling for age and bacterial co-infections (FDR q&lt;0.05).ResultsComparing pediatric samples collected near admission, children with Prolonged MODS for ≥7 days (n=38; 9 deaths) had significant upregulation of nine mRNA transcripts associated with neutrophil degranulation (RETN, TCN1, OLFM4, MMP8, LCN2, BPI, LTF, S100A12, GUSB) compared to those who recovered more rapidly from MODS (n=27). These neutrophil transcripts present in early samples predicted Prolonged MODS or death when compared to patients who recovered, however in paired longitudinal samples, they were not differentially expressed over time. Instead, five genes involved in protein metabolism and/or adaptive immunity signaling pathways (RPL3, MRPL3, HLA-DMB, EEF1G, CD8A) were associated with MODS recovery within a week.ConclusionThus, early increased expression of neutrophil degranulation genes indicated worse clinical outcomes in children with influenza infection, consistent with reports in adult cohorts with influenza, sepsis, and acute respiratory distress syndrome

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children — Initial Therapy and Outcomes

This article is made available for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or be any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.Background: The assessment of real-world effectiveness of immunomodulatory medications for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) may guide therapy. Methods: We analyzed surveillance data on inpatients younger than 21 years of age who had MIS-C and were admitted to 1 of 58 U.S. hospitals between March 15 and October 31, 2020. The effectiveness of initial immunomodulatory therapy (day 0, indicating the first day any such therapy for MIS-C was given) with intravenous immune globulin (IVIG) plus glucocorticoids, as compared with IVIG alone, was evaluated with propensity-score matching and inverse probability weighting, with adjustment for baseline MIS-C severity and demographic characteristics. The primary outcome was cardiovascular dysfunction (a composite of left ventricular dysfunction or shock resulting in the use of vasopressors) on or after day 2. Secondary outcomes included the components of the primary outcome, the receipt of adjunctive treatment (glucocorticoids in patients not already receiving glucocorticoids on day 0, a biologic, or a second dose of IVIG) on or after day 1, and persistent or recurrent fever on or after day 2. Results: A total of 518 patients with MIS-C (median age, 8.7 years) received at least one immunomodulatory therapy; 75% had been previously healthy, and 9 died. In the propensity-score-matched analysis, initial treatment with IVIG plus glucocorticoids (103 patients) was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular dysfunction on or after day 2 than IVIG alone (103 patients) (17% vs. 31%; risk ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34 to 0.94). The risks of the components of the composite outcome were also lower among those who received IVIG plus glucocorticoids: left ventricular dysfunction occurred in 8% and 17% of the patients, respectively (risk ratio, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.19 to 1.15), and shock resulting in vasopressor use in 13% and 24% (risk ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.29 to 1.00). The use of adjunctive therapy was lower among patients who received IVIG plus glucocorticoids than among those who received IVIG alone (34% vs. 70%; risk ratio, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.65), but the risk of fever was unaffected (31% and 40%, respectively; risk ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.53 to 1.13). The inverse-probability-weighted analysis confirmed the results of the propensity-score-matched analysis. Conclusions: Among children and adolescents with MIS-C, initial treatment with IVIG plus glucocorticoids was associated with a lower risk of new or persistent cardiovascular dysfunction than IVIG alone. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)

Characteristics and Outcomes of US Children and Adolescents With Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) Compared With Severe Acute COVID-19

Importance Refinement of criteria for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) may inform efforts to improve health outcomes. Objective To compare clinical characteristics and outcomes of children and adolescents with MIS-C vs those with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Setting, Design, and Participants Case series of 1116 patients aged younger than 21 years hospitalized between March 15 and October 31, 2020, at 66 US hospitals in 31 states. Final date of follow-up was January 5, 2021. Patients with MIS-C had fever, inflammation, multisystem involvement, and positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or antibody test results or recent exposure with no alternate diagnosis. Patients with COVID-19 had positive RT-PCR test results and severe organ system involvement. Exposure SARS-CoV-2. Main Outcomes and Measures Presenting symptoms, organ system complications, laboratory biomarkers, interventions, and clinical outcomes. Multivariable regression was used to compute adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) of factors associated with MIS-C vs COVID-19. Results Of 1116 patients (median age, 9.7 years; 45% female), 539 (48%) were diagnosed with MIS-C and 577 (52%) with COVID-19. Compared with patients with COVID-19, patients with MIS-C were more likely to be 6 to 12 years old (40.8% vs 19.4%; absolute risk difference [RD], 21.4% [95% CI, 16.1%-26.7%]; aRR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.33-1.72] vs 0-5 years) and non-Hispanic Black (32.3% vs 21.5%; RD, 10.8% [95% CI, 5.6%-16.0%]; aRR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.17-1.76] vs White). Compared with patients with COVID-19, patients with MIS-C were more likely to have cardiorespiratory involvement (56.0% vs 8.8%; RD, 47.2% [95% CI, 42.4%-52.0%]; aRR, 2.99 [95% CI, 2.55-3.50] vs respiratory involvement), cardiovascular without respiratory involvement (10.6% vs 2.9%; RD, 7.7% [95% CI, 4.7%-10.6%]; aRR, 2.49 [95% CI, 2.05-3.02] vs respiratory involvement), and mucocutaneous without cardiorespiratory involvement (7.1% vs 2.3%; RD, 4.8% [95% CI, 2.3%-7.3%]; aRR, 2.29 [95% CI, 1.84-2.85] vs respiratory involvement). Patients with MIS-C had higher neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (median, 6.4 vs 2.7, P < .001), higher C-reactive protein level (median, 152 mg/L vs 33 mg/L; P < .001), and lower platelet count (<150 ×103 cells/μL [212/523 {41%} vs 84/486 {17%}, P < .001]). A total of 398 patients (73.8%) with MIS-C and 253 (43.8%) with COVID-19 were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 10 (1.9%) with MIS-C and 8 (1.4%) with COVID-19 died during hospitalization. Among patients with MIS-C with reduced left ventricular systolic function (172/503, 34.2%) and coronary artery aneurysm (57/424, 13.4%), an estimated 91.0% (95% CI, 86.0%-94.7%) and 79.1% (95% CI, 67.1%-89.1%), respectively, normalized within 30 days. Conclusions and Relevance This case series of patients with MIS-C and with COVID-19 identified patterns of clinical presentation and organ system involvement. These patterns may help differentiate between MIS-C and COVID-19

Corticosteroids and pediatric septic shock outcomes: A risk stratified analysis

Background The potential benefits of corticosteroids for septic shock may depend on initial mortality risk. Objective We determined associations between corticosteroids and outcomes in children with septic shock who were stratified by initial mortality risk. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of an ongoing, multi-center pediatric septic shock clinical and biological database. Using a validated biomarker-based stratification tool (PERSEVERE), 496 subjects were stratified into three initial mortality risk strata (low, intermediate, and high). Subjects receiving corticosteroids during the initial 7 days of admission (n = 252) were compared to subjects who did not receive corticosteroids (n = 244). Logistic regression was used to model the effects of corticosteroids on 28-day mortality and complicated course, defined as death within 28 days or persistence of two or more organ failures at 7 days. Results Subjects who received corticosteroids had greater organ failure burden, higher illness severity, higher mortality, and a greater requirement for vasoactive medications, compared to subjects who did not receive corticosteroids. PERSEVERE-based mortality risk did not differ between the two groups. For the entire cohort, corticosteroids were associated with increased risk of mortality (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–4.0, p = 0.004) and a complicated course (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1–2.5, p = 0.012). Within each PERSEVERE-based stratum, corticosteroid administration was not associated with improved outcomes. Similarly, corticosteroid administration was not associated with improved outcomes among patients with no comorbidities, nor in groups of patients stratified by PRISM. Conclusions Risk stratified analysis failed to demonstrate any benefit from corticosteroids in this pediatric septic shock cohort. Figure

Differential expression of the Nrf2-linked genes in pediatric septic shock.

INTRODUCTION: Experimental data from animal models of sepsis support a role for a transcription factor, nuclear erythroid-related factor 2 p45-related factor 2 (Nrf2), as a master regulator of antioxidant and detoxifying genes and intermediary metabolism during stress. Prior analysis of a pediatric septic shock transcriptomic database showed that the Nrf2 response is a top 5 upregulated signaling pathway in early pediatric septic shock. METHODS: We conducted a focused analysis of 267 Nrf2-linked genes using a multicenter, genome-wide expression database of 180 children with septic shock 10 years of age or younger and 53 healthy controls. The analysis involved RNA isolated from whole blood within 24 h of pediatric intensive care unit admission for septic shock and a false discovery rate of 5 %. We compared differentially expressed genes from (1) patients with septic shock and healthy controls and (2) across validated gene expression-based subclasses of pediatric septic shock (endotypes A and B) using several bioinformatic methods. RESULTS: We found upregulation of 123 Nrf2-linked genes in children with septic shock. The top gene network represented by these genes contained primarily enzymes with oxidoreductase activity involved in cellular lipid metabolism that were highly connected to the peroxisome proliferator activated receptor and the retinoic acid receptor families. Endotype A, which had higher organ failure burden and mortality, exhibited a greater downregulation of Nrf2-linked genes than endotype B, with 92 genes differentially regulated between endotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that Nrf2-linked genes may contribute to alterations in oxidative signaling and intermediary metabolism in pediatric septic shock