A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability

Evaluating the performance of a multispecies statistical catch-at-age model

Predation is a substantial source of mortality that is a function of the abundance of predator and prey species. This source of mortality creates a challenge of incorporating species interactions in statistical catch-at-age models in a way that accounts for the uncertainty in input data, parameters, and results. We developed a statistical, age-structured, multispecies model for three important species in the Georges Bank fish community: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), silver hake (Merluccius bilinearis), and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). The model was fit to commercial catch, survey, and diet data from 1978 to 2007. The estimated predation rates were high, compared with fishing mortality, and variable with time. The dynamics of the three species can be explained by the interplay between fishing and predation mortality. Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the ability of the model to estimate parameters with known error introduced into each of the data types. The model parameters could be estimated with confidence from input data with error levels similar to those obtained from the model fit to the observed data. This evaluation of model performance should help to move multispecies statistical catch-at-age models from proof of concept to functional tools for ecosystem-based fisheries management

Quantifying genetic differentiation and population assignment between two contingents of Atlantic mackerel (<i>Scomber scombrus</i>) in the Northwest Atlantic

In the Northwest Atlantic (NWA), the Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) has a northern and a southern contingent, which spawn in Canada and the United States (U.S.), respectively. Both contingents mix mostly along the U.S. shelf during overwintering. The discrimination of individuals from each contingent in fisheries could improve the management of this depleted species in both countries. Here, we used genome-wide markers (&gt;10 000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)) to assess genomic differences between mackerel of both contingents, and possibly infer the proportions of each contingent in NWA management units. Small but significant genetic differentiation was observed between the northern and southern contingents (FST = 0.0010). Genetic assignments to reference samples from the two contingents were performed with predictive accuracy &gt; 85%. Fish from both contingents were present along the U.S. shelf during late winter and early spring but also, without prior evidence of this, likely in Canadian waters from late spring to fall. Genetic assignments could be used as a stock discrimination tool so that fishery removals can be effectively determined and managed on a contingent level

The genetic composition of feeding aggregations of the Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the central North Atlantic: A microsatellite loci approach. ICESJMS-2019-497.R1

Microsatellite data for Atlantic Mackere

The genetic composition of feeding aggregations of the Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the central north Atlantic: a microsatellite loci approach

The impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems can be seen in the changing distribution, migration, and abundance of species in the oceans. For some species this changing environment may be beneficial and can support population expansions. In the northeast Atlantic (NEA), the Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) is undergoing an increase in stock size accompanied by changing summer migration patterns, which have resulted in an expansion further north and north west than previously recorded. This study uses microsatellite loci to confirm the differentiation among NEA and northwest Atlantic (NWA) mackerel spawning populations and to assess the level of structuring within these populations. In addition, to enable population-specific exploitation rates to be factored into fisheries management, we identified the origin of individuals composing the expanding feeding aggregations in the central north Atlantic (Greenland, Iceland, Faroes), with all aggregations tested originating from spawning populations in the NEA. This study showed that microsatellite loci were useful to assess the contribution of NEA and NWA populations to mixed feeding aggregations across the north Atlantic for large pelagic fish stocks but were not powerful enough to evaluate the specific contribution of known stocks within NEA and NWA

Climate exposure factors.

<p>Average climate exposure scores across all species (A) and results of sensitivity analysis for the effect of individual exposure factors on overall climate vulnerability (B).</p

Map of Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem.

<p>Map of Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem.</p