Identificando as preferências do Banco Central do Brasil (2002-2013)

Este trabalho estima os parâmetros de preferência do Banco Central do Brasil parao período compreendido entre 2002 e 2013. Para isso, analisamos um problema deotimização do Banco Central em uma economia aberta. A equação de Euler que solucionatal problema permite utilizar o método generalizado dos momentos (GMM) paraestimação eficiente dos parâmetros. Tal abordagem separa os parâmetros de preferênciadaqueles relacionados às condições estruturais da economia brasileira, ao contráriodo que ocorre na estimação direta de uma regra de política monetária. Os resultadosencontrados indicam grau relativamente elevado de flexibilidade do regime de metasde inflação no Brasil, sugerindo que a estabilização do produto em torno de seu potencialconstitui objetivo relevante nas decisões de política monetária, em detrimentoao controle inflacionário estrito. A flexibilidade do regime parece ter sido aprofundadana gestão de Alexandre Tombini à frente do Banco Central do Brasil.This paper estimates Central Bank’s preferences for the period between 2002 and 2013.Therefore, we analyze a Central Bank optimization problem within an open economy.The Euler equation that solves this problem allows to apply the generalized method ofmoments (GMM) to efficiently estimate the parameters. Such an approach dissociatesthe preference’s parameters from those related to the structural conditions of Brazilianeconomy, unlike what occurs on direct estimations of a monetary policy rule. The resultsindicate a high degree of flexibility in Brazil’s inflation targeting regime, suggesting that output stabilization around its potential is a significant goal in monetary policy decisions,over a strict inflation control. This flexible nature of the monetary policy managementseems to have been deepened over the administration of President Alexandre Tombini

Uma estimativa dos custos fiscais da política industrial recente (2004-2016)

This article estimates fiscal costs derived from the federal government industrial policy between 2004 and 2016. We focus on the measurement of "tax expenditures", something inedited in Brazilian economic literature on the subject. We also analysis tax exemptions that, for legal reasons, are not considered as tax expenditures, but are relevant for our study. The main findings can be summarized as follows: i) the evidence suggests that industrial policy instituted since 2003 promoted the continued rise in tax expenditures; ii) despite the wide range of instruments exploited, the bulk of expenditures intended traditional industrial policies at the expense of more innovative industries; and iii) there is a surprising continuity of new measures - that amplify the tax expenditures - focusing on the Free Economic Zone of Manaus and the automotive sector

Terms of trade, macroeconomic dynamics and default decisions

A evidência empírica aponta que Termos de Troca é uma variável relevante tanto para dinâmica macroeconômica como para o risco de default em países emergentes. No entanto, a literatura de dívida soberana baseada nos trabalhos de Eaton e Gerzovitz (1981) e Arellano (2008) ainda não explorou de forma adequada as conecções entre a dinâmica de termos de troca e incentivos ao default. Nós contribuímos nessa área, introduzindo volatilidade de Termos de Troca no modelo proposto por Mendoza e Yue (2012), no qual as decisões de dívida soberana são vinculadas à um modelo de equilíbrio geral para a economia doméstica. Nós encontramos que uma economia exposta à volatilidade dos termos de troca consegue produzir uma variabilidade do consumo que supera significativamente a variabilidade do produto, característica que constitui um fato estilizado chave de business cycles de países emergentes. Nossos exercícios também mostram que decisões de default são geradas por mudanças bruscas nos termos de troca, mas não necessariamente estão vinculados à estados ruins da economia.There is substantial evidence that terms of trade behavior are relevant to understand both the macroeconomic dynamics and the default risk of emerging markets. Nevertheless, the literature of sovereign debt that follows Eaton and Gerzovitz (1981) and Arellano (2008) has not yet adequately explored the connections between terms of trade and default incentives. We advance in this field, introducing terms of trade volatility to the model proposed by Mendoza and Yue (2012), where the sovereign debt decisions are linked to a general equilibrium model for the domestic economy. We find that an economy that faces stochastic terms of trade innovations can produce a consumption variability that highly exceeds the output variability, which is a key stylized fact of emerging markets business cycles. Our exercises also show that default episodes are driven by sudden shifts in the terms of trade but are no necessary related with bad times

Evaluation of MODIS Dark Target AOD Product with 3 and 10 km Resolution in Amazonia

The techniques and analyses employed by remote sensing provide key information about atmospheric particle properties at regional and global scales. However, limitations in optical spectral models used to represent the different types of aerosols in the atmosphere and their effects (direct and indirect) are still one of the major causes of sources of uncertainties and substantial impacts in climate prediction. There are no studies yet in South America, especially in the Amazon Basin, that have evaluated the advantages, disadvantages, inconsistencies, applicability, and suitability of the MODIS sensor (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) destined for monitoring the ambient aerosol optical thickness over rivers and continents. In this study, the results of the DT (Dark Target) algorithm for products with 3 km and 10 km resolutions were systematically evaluated for six sites in the Amazon rainforest. The comparisons between the products were carried out with the AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) measurements, which were used as reference. Statistical parameters between AERONET vs. MODIS were also evaluated based on biomass burning records in the site regions. Here, the DT 10 km product showed satisfactory performance for the Amazon region, with observations between the expected error (EE) limits above 66%, in addition to R > 0.8 and RMSE < 0.3. However, the regional analysis for the two sites in the central and southern regions of the Amazon basin did not have the same performance, where the results showed an EE of 24 and 47%, respectively. The DT 3 km product did not perform well in any site, with an EE below 50%. Both products overestimated the AOD, but the 3 km product overestimated it approximately four times more due to its algorithm setup. Thus, we recommend the 10 km product for general analysis in Amazonia. Regional biomass burning records showed a direct relationship with the AERONET vs. MODIS DT with overestimation of both products. All variations between products and sites were justified based on the difficulty of retrieving surface reflectance and the model selected for local aerosols. Improvements in the optical spectral model currently implemented in the algorithms, with more realistic representations of the main types of the aerosol present in the Amazon Basin, may contribute to better performance among the evaluated products

Evaluation of MODIS Dark Target AOD Product with 3 and 10 km Resolution in Amazonia

The techniques and analyses employed by remote sensing provide key information about atmospheric particle properties at regional and global scales. However, limitations in optical spectral models used to represent the different types of aerosols in the atmosphere and their effects (direct and indirect) are still one of the major causes of sources of uncertainties and substantial impacts in climate prediction. There are no studies yet in South America, especially in the Amazon Basin, that have evaluated the advantages, disadvantages, inconsistencies, applicability, and suitability of the MODIS sensor (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) destined for monitoring the ambient aerosol optical thickness over rivers and continents. In this study, the results of the DT (Dark Target) algorithm for products with 3 km and 10 km resolutions were systematically evaluated for six sites in the Amazon rainforest. The comparisons between the products were carried out with the AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) measurements, which were used as reference. Statistical parameters between AERONET vs. MODIS were also evaluated based on biomass burning records in the site regions. Here, the DT 10 km product showed satisfactory performance for the Amazon region, with observations between the expected error (EE) limits above 66%, in addition to R &gt; 0.8 and RMSE &lt; 0.3. However, the regional analysis for the two sites in the central and southern regions of the Amazon basin did not have the same performance, where the results showed an EE of 24 and 47%, respectively. The DT 3 km product did not perform well in any site, with an EE below 50%. Both products overestimated the AOD, but the 3 km product overestimated it approximately four times more due to its algorithm setup. Thus, we recommend the 10 km product for general analysis in Amazonia. Regional biomass burning records showed a direct relationship with the AERONET vs. MODIS DT with overestimation of both products. All variations between products and sites were justified based on the difficulty of retrieving surface reflectance and the model selected for local aerosols. Improvements in the optical spectral model currently implemented in the algorithms, with more realistic representations of the main types of the aerosol present in the Amazon Basin, may contribute to better performance among the evaluated products

Latin American Consensus on the Treatment of Head and Neck Cancer

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is well known as a serious health problem worldwide, especially in low-income countries or those with limited resources, such as most countries in Latin America. International guidelines cannot always be applied to a population from a large region with specific conditions. This study established a Latin American guideline for care of patients with head and neck cancer and presented evidence of HNSCC management considering availability and oncologic benefit. A panel composed of 41 head and neck cancer experts systematically worked according to a modified Delphi process on (1) document compilation of evidence-based answers to different questions contextualized by resource availability and oncologic benefit regarding Latin America (region of limited resources and/or without access to all necessary health care system infrastructure), (2) revision of the answers and the classification of levels of evidence and degrees of recommendations of all recommendations, (3) validation of the consensus through two rounds of online surveys, and (4) manuscript composition. The consensus consists of 12 sections: Head and neck cancer staging, Histopathologic evaluation of head and neck cancer, Head and neck surgery—oral cavity, Clinical oncology—oral cavity, Head and neck surgery—oropharynx, Clinical oncology—oropharynx, Head and neck surgery—larynx, Head and neck surgery—larynx/hypopharynx, Clinical oncology—larynx/hypopharynx, Clinical oncology—recurrent and metastatic head and neck cancer, Head and neck surgery—reconstruction and rehabilitation, and Radiation therapy. The present consensus established 48 recommendations on HNSCC patient care considering the availability of resources and focusing on oncologic benefit. These recommendations could also be used to formulate strategies in other regions like Latin America countries