Um estudo biometereológico em São Paulo: elaboração de um índice de risco meteorotrópico (IRM) sobre a morbilidade por doenças respiratórias na Cidade de São Paulo

O meio ambiente atmosférico inclui uma série de factores cuja relação com organismos deve ser feita de início em separado, ainda que existam inter-relações que multiplicam ou reduzem os efeitos observáveis. Do mesmo modo, verificou-se que em muitas ocasiões, tendem a aparecer no homem epidemias ou doenças agudas com acessos quase periódicos. Una doença generalizada, que aparece ou desaparece consoante as mudanças atmosféricas, denomina-se doença meteorotrópica. Este trabalho tem como objectivo o desenvolvimento de uma metodologia que viabilize a criação de um índice de Risco Meteorotrópico (IRM), considerando as consequências das variáveis ambientais (poluentes e meteorológicas) sobre a variabilidade da morbilidade de todas as doenças do aparelho respiratório (conforme, CID 9 e CID 10), na Cidade de São Paulo durante o período de 1993 a 2002. A elaboração do IRM foi efectuada através do emprego das Rede Neuronais Artificiais, considerando a classificação etária e o sexo do paciente. Além das RNA's, foram utilizados técnicas de análises multivariadas de Análise de Cluster (AC) e da Análise em Componentes Principais (ACP). A AC foi utilizado em carácter exploratório, para verificar a similaridade das variáveis envolvidas e a ACP em carácter confirmatório. Essas duas técnicas corroboraram com as informações obtidas pela rede neuronal. A metodologia desenvolvida nesta pesquisa viabilizou a criação do índice de Risco Meteorotrópico, assim como a previsão das doenças respiratórias conforme a classificação etária e sexo, utilizando uma rede de multicamadas perceptrão com o algoritmo de aprendizagem "backpropagation". Os prognósticos da morbilidade respiratória, quando envolvia todos os grupos etários e o sexo [RESP6 - F, M e MF] da Cidade de São Paulo, apresentou uma performance mais robusta para a solução do problema com um grau de acerto em torno de 82% quando comparado com os valores observados. Os padrões de sazonalidade e ciclo semanais das doenças respiratórias foram detectados durante o aprendizado da rede. ### ABSTRACT - The atmospheric environment includes a series of factors whose relationship with organisms should be made at the beginning in separate, although, exist interrelations that multiply or reduce the observable effects. In the same way, it is verified in a lot of occasions the epidemics or burden diseases tend to appear periodically on human being. The disease, that appears or consonant disappears due the atmospheric changes is called meteorotropic disease. This study presents the development of a methodology that became possible the creation of a Risk Meteorotropic Index (RMI), considering the consequences of the environmental variables (pollutant and meteorological) about morbidity variability for all respiratory diseases (ICD 9 and ICD 10) in São Paulo city during for period 1993- 2002. The elaboration of RMI will be made via Artificial Neural Networks (ANN's) in agreement with the age classification and sex. Resides ANN's, two statistical multivariate techniques were used: Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis (CA). The CA was used in exploratory character to verify the similarity of the involved variables while PCA was used in confirmative character. The multivariate techniques corroborated with the information obtained by neural network. The results obtained through the methodology developed in this research became possible the creation Risk Meteorotropic Index (RMI), as well as the forecasting respiratory diseases according to the age classification and sex via a multilayer perceptron with the backpropagation algorithm. The prognostica of the respiratory morbilidity for all age groups and sex [RESP6 - F, M and MF] presented a more robust performance for the problem solution with an accuracy degree around 82% when compared with the observed values. The seasonality patterns and weekdays of the respiratory diseases were detected during the net training

Climate proxy events´ patterns and the rainfall variability over the Brazilian Amazon

Although the correlation between precipitation in the Brazilian Amazon and sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Pacific and Atlantic has been documented since the early twentieth century, the impact of each ocean variability on the frequency and intensity of the wet/dry season over Brazilian Amazon and the underlying mechanisms have remained unclear. The mechanisms of climate anomalies in the Amazon basin were explored from surface climatological time series. Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon is examined in context of its relationship to El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), low frequency phenomena such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The regional rainfall has been related to high-frequency atmospheric phenomena, such as El Niño and La Niña events, of a statistically significant precipitation anomaly patterns. Non-linear correlations (response) reveal strong relationships, but rainfall patterns are of regional scale. Areas of rainfall exhibiting strong relationships with SST are confined to the equatorial region of the Brazilian Amazon. The best relationships are found either during the season of transition between wet and dry regimes, or entirely within the dry season. It is hypothesized, and results are shown in support, that during the transition seasons, an important contributor to the SST control on seasonal totals is its influence on the timing on the rainy season onset or end. That influence appears to be stronger than the SST influence on the rainy season. The analysis of Rainfall variability and sensitivity related to decadal and long-term anomaly patterns of rainfall has been carried out. Negative rainfall trends were identified for the entire Amazon basin, while at the regional level there is a negative trend in northern Amazonia and positive trend in southern Amazonia. Decadal time scale variations in rainfall have been discovered, with periods of relatively drier and wetter conditions, with different behaviour in northern and southern Amazonia. Spectral analyses show decadal time scale variations in southern Amazonia, while northern Amazonia exhibits both interannual and decadal scale variations. Shifts in the rainfall regime in both sections of the Amazon basin were identified and changes in the circulation and oceanic fields suggest an important function of the warming of the tropical central and eastern Pacific on the decreasing rainfall in northern Amazonia, due to more frequent and intense El Niño events during the relatively dry period. A complementary application was carried out correlating the rainfall database with the NCEP Reanalysis dataset. Scenarios for rainy station were considered consequence of located storms and they are associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and its seasonal migration. Preliminary results of this research indicate that the precipitation over the Amazon Basin presents interanual variability associated to the ENSO phenomenon, with periodicity of about 20-25 years in frequency of subtropical highs, probably associated to the PDO. Besides, we have found strong anti-correlation, of about 60%, between the Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation (OLR) and annual cycle of precipitation amount over the region. There is an apparent association between SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific and the pentads of onset and end of the rainy season in the northern and central Amazon.Pages: 1545-155

Saharian desert cyclic events based on seasonal to interannual recurrent Sahel rainfall diagnosis

The semi-arid Sahel region experiences a high degree of climatic variability. Rainfall events have been relative cyclic, extended dry and wet episodes, which can be related to the Sahara Desert borders waxing and waning. The Sahel rainfall exhibits quasi-regular low-frequency variability on both interannual and intraseasonal time scales. The Sahel is a semi-arid belt in Africa between the Sahara desert and the tropical rainforest. In the 1970s and 1980s it experienced repeated, devastating droughts, most notably in 1972-1973 and in 1982-1984. The drying trend in the semiarid Sahel was attributed to warmer-than-average low-latitude waters around Africa, which, by favouring the establishment of deep convection over the ocean, weakened the continental moisture flux convergence, associated with the monsoon and engendered widespread drought over the West Africa. The variability of rainfall in the Sahel results from the temporal variability of the southern incursions of ITCZ on West Africa and its relationship with the positioning of the action centres related to the High Subtropical Pressure Centres. The objective was to assess the relative role of large-scale climate variability in regional environmental trends, and the prospects for the future of the semi-arid Sahel region in the context of cyclic climate change; to understand the influence of Tropical Atlantic variability and South Atlantic variability in the Sahel precipitation. The relationship between the movements of the Sahara Desert borders with the low frequency variability of the atmospheric general circulation structures was also analyzed, hoping to find a method of forecasting the progress and retreat of the Saharan Desert. The results showed that the Sahel is a region of strong coherent (observed) rainfall variability. Seasonality explains the major part of the total variance. The Sahel rainfall exhibits quasi-regular high-frequency variability on both interannual and intraseasonal time scales. The trend, from above-average rainfall in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s to below-average rainfall from the early 1980s, was apparent and statistically significant. The annual moving-average of the observed Sahel rainfall separates interdecadal variability neatly, which includes the negative trend in Sahel rainfall (low-frequency component of the Sahel rainfall variability), from interannual variability (high-frequency component of the Sahel rainfall variability. The warming trend in the Equatorial Indian Ocean may have favoured the local deep convection and the circulation response to Equatorial Indian Ocean surface temperature anomalies may have weakened the African monsoon. The South Atlantic is important for influencing the location of the ITCZ and hence the West African monsoon. There were two well-known signals indicating that SST variability in the tropical to mid-latitude South Atlantic influence South African rainfall. The rainfall variation during 1950-2000 presented large variance over regions south of the equator as well as over Indian Ocean ITCZ, corresponding to the large mean rainfall totals. The rain variance in summer was dominated by summer monsoon. The precipitation regime in the Sahelian stations showed a marked annual cycle The West Africa rainfall interannual variability seemed to be associate to the El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. In addition, the Subtropical High Pressure (SHP) centers have an apparent 20-25 year cycle probably related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as the equator-to-pole pressure (temperature) gradient increases, the SHP centers of both hemispheres approached the equator and limited the incursion of the African ITCZ, resulting in a southward espansion of the Sahara Desert. However, further work is required to test the dynamical hypotheses of ENSO's and PDO impacts on Sahels climate. It is expected that this work contributes to improvements in climate prediction over Tropical Africa.Pages: 1483-148

Comparaçao de dados climatológicos modelados e observados utilizando a técnica dos quantis

Ponencia presentada en: XXVIII Jornadas Científicas de la AME y V Encuentro Hispano-Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Badajoz, del 11 al 13 de febrero de 2004.[PT]A técnica dos quantis foi utilizada na comparação de duas séries de dados de precipitação, uma climatológica modelada (Global Historical Climatology Network - GHCN) e outra incompleta, com dados observados (EMBRAPA). A série climatológica abrange um período de 50 anos e a série incompleta abrange o período entre 1973 e 1997. Através da técnica dos quantís pode ser observado que ambas as séries tendem para a normal climatológica da região, mesmo que os dados se apresentem modelados e que a série seja incompleta. Isto significa que ambas as séries provam o teorema fundamental da probabilidade, ou seja, obedecem a lei dos grandes números. A Lei dos Grandes números é um teorema que prova a probabilidade do modelo matemático, mostrando que ele é consistente com a interpretação da frequência de probabilidade.[en]The quantile technique was used to compare two precipitation datasets series, one climatological produced by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and other incomplete, with dataset observed (EMBRAPA). The climatological series embraces a 50 years period and the incomplete series embraces the period between 1973 and 1997. Through the quantile technique can be observed that both series trends to the normal climatological value to this area, even that the datasets presents modeled and the series is incomplete. This means that both series prove the fundamental theorem of the probability, they obey the law of the great numbers. The Law of Large Numbers, which is a theorem proved about the mathematical model of probability, shows that this model is consistent with the frequency interpretation of probability

Stochastic approach to describe rainfall climatology and phenomenology over Angola

Probably, there is a relationship between warm and cold events in the tropical eastern South Atlantic and summer rainfall over Angola and Namibia. These events appear to originate as equatorial Kelvin waves in response to modulations of the trade winds over the tropical South Atlantic. It is well-known that the Southeast Atlantic warm events influence not only the coastal rainfall of tropical Southwestern Africa, but also there is a significant relationship between winter frontal rainfall in Southwestern South Africa and mid-latitude SST patterns, involving shifts in the jet stream and storm-tracks over the mid-latitudes. The objectives of this research work were: (1) Analyse the climate and the phenomena that influence precipitation in different regions of Angola. (2) Provide better understanding of regional rainfall climatology. (3) Make rainfall regime prognostic and future climate, which are important to managing the natural and hydrological resources and planning human activities. Over Angola, the rainfall exhibits quasi-regular low-frequency variability on both interannual and intraseasonal time scales. However, many aspects of the interrelationship between intraseasonal and interannual modes, especially the linkage between Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have not been described yet, i.e. whether ENSO and MJO modulate or alter each other. Considering the latitude, Angola should have a typically tropical climate. However, four factors are crucial over the local weather definition, determining the climate of Angola based on (1) the migration of the Intertropical Front (ITF) and/or the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), (2) the displacement of the South Atlantic anticyclone associated to the cold phase of the Benguela Current, (3) the Namibia Desert and (4) the altitude of the central region. The mean NDJFMA rainfall and rain variance during 1951-1980 indicated largest variability to the south of Angola as well as in the Indian Ocean ITCZ corresponding to the large mean rainfall in the studied-region. The rain variance in summer is dominated by the SST of Benguela Current and the African ITCZ. The Southwestern Africa is influenced by the Subtropical High Centre Pressures of the Southern Atlantic Anticyclon, which controls the seasonal oscillation of the trade winds of marine influence the marine trade winds - and their continental adaptation the continental trade winds. In the dry regime, the NE trade winds are more intense. During the rainy season, they flow parallel to the coast usually, becoming marine trade winds. The results revealed that the precipitation regime in the analysed stations has a vell marked annual cycle, with rainfall concentrated in the South Hemisphere summer, which is the period of intense convection, September-April. The annual cycle is related to the waxing and waning of the ITCZ, that migrates northward to approximately 12\ub0N, in August-September; and southward, to approximately 4\ub0S, in March-April. The annual cycle of the series corresponding to those stations, were similar, despite the differences of intensity registered. The rainfall presented long-term variability that seems to be related with the PDO (20-30 years) and high frequency variability apparently related with ENSO events (3-7 years). It was clear that African Southwestern climate variability is related to global climate variability. Further work is required to test the dynamical hypotheses on ENSO's impact on Southern Hemisphere summer climate. During the studied period, strong influence of the Benguela's Niño was noticed, originating an increasing precipitation drift. Future work includes data analysis of neighboring countries, submitted to robust statistical tests in order to improve their consistency, investigating, among others, the interdecadal variability of the ITCZ, and its relationship with the Benguela Current and planetary structures, such as ENSO, NAO, and PDO. Longer-term changes in the ITCZ displacement have high social and economic impacts through severe droughts or flooding over areas of its influence.Pages: 1469-147

NEOTROPICAL ALIEN MAMMALS: a data set of occurrence and abundance of alien mammals in the Neotropics

Biological invasion is one of the main threats to native biodiversity. For a species to become invasive, it must be voluntarily or involuntarily introduced by humans into a nonnative habitat. Mammals were among first taxa to be introduced worldwide for game, meat, and labor, yet the number of species introduced in the Neotropics remains unknown. In this data set, we make available occurrence and abundance data on mammal species that (1) transposed a geographical barrier and (2) were voluntarily or involuntarily introduced by humans into the Neotropics. Our data set is composed of 73,738 historical and current georeferenced records on alien mammal species of which around 96% correspond to occurrence data on 77 species belonging to eight orders and 26 families. Data cover 26 continental countries in the Neotropics, ranging from Mexico and its frontier regions (southern Florida and coastal-central Florida in the southeast United States) to Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, and Uruguay, and the 13 countries of Caribbean islands. Our data set also includes neotropical species (e.g., Callithrix sp., Myocastor coypus, Nasua nasua) considered alien in particular areas of Neotropics. The most numerous species in terms of records are from Bos sp. (n = 37,782), Sus scrofa (n = 6,730), and Canis familiaris (n = 10,084); 17 species were represented by only one record (e.g., Syncerus caffer, Cervus timorensis, Cervus unicolor, Canis latrans). Primates have the highest number of species in the data set (n = 20 species), partly because of uncertainties regarding taxonomic identification of the genera Callithrix, which includes the species Callithrix aurita, Callithrix flaviceps, Callithrix geoffroyi, Callithrix jacchus, Callithrix kuhlii, Callithrix penicillata, and their hybrids. This unique data set will be a valuable source of information on invasion risk assessments, biodiversity redistribution and conservation-related research. There are no copyright restrictions. Please cite this data paper when using the data in publications. We also request that researchers and teachers inform us on how they are using the data

Delayed colorectal cancer care during covid-19 pandemic (decor-19). Global perspective from an international survey

Background The widespread nature of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been unprecedented. We sought to analyze its global impact with a survey on colorectal cancer (CRC) care during the pandemic. Methods The impact of COVID-19 on preoperative assessment, elective surgery, and postoperative management of CRC patients was explored by a 35-item survey, which was distributed worldwide to members of surgical societies with an interest in CRC care. Respondents were divided into two comparator groups: 1) ‘delay’ group: CRC care affected by the pandemic; 2) ‘no delay’ group: unaltered CRC practice. Results A total of 1,051 respondents from 84 countries completed the survey. No substantial differences in demographics were found between the ‘delay’ (745, 70.9%) and ‘no delay’ (306, 29.1%) groups. Suspension of multidisciplinary team meetings, staff members quarantined or relocated to COVID-19 units, units fully dedicated to COVID-19 care, personal protective equipment not readily available were factors significantly associated to delays in endoscopy, radiology, surgery, histopathology and prolonged chemoradiation therapy-to-surgery intervals. In the ‘delay’ group, 48.9% of respondents reported a change in the initial surgical plan and 26.3% reported a shift from elective to urgent operations. Recovery of CRC care was associated with the status of the outbreak. Practicing in COVID-free units, no change in operative slots and staff members not relocated to COVID-19 units were statistically associated with unaltered CRC care in the ‘no delay’ group, while the geographical distribution was not. Conclusions Global changes in diagnostic and therapeutic CRC practices were evident. Changes were associated with differences in health-care delivery systems, hospital’s preparedness, resources availability, and local COVID-19 prevalence rather than geographical factors. Strategic planning is required to optimize CRC care