nsolvency Experience, Risk-Based Capital, and Prompt Corrective Action in Property-Liability Insurance

In December 1992, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) adopted a life-health insurer risk-based capital (RBC) formula and model law that became effective with the 1993 annual statement filed in March 1994. In principle, well-designed RBC requirements can help achieve an efficient reduction in the expected costs of insolvencies. They can provide incentives for insurers to operate safely in cases where market incentives are weak due to government mandated guarantees of insurer obligations or asymmetries regarding solvency between insurers and buyers. RBC requirements also may facilitate or encourage prompt corrective action by solvency regulators by helping regulators to identify weak insurers and giving regulators legal authority to intervene when capital falls below specified levels. RBC requirements may force regulators to act in amore timely manner when confronted with external pressure to delay action. However, RBC capital requirements have a number ofpotential limitations. Unavoidable imperfections in any meaningful RBC system will likely distort some insurer decisions in undesirable and unintended ways. RBC requirements by themselves will do little or nothing to help regulators determine when an insurer s reported capital (surplus) is overstated due to understatement of liabilities or overstatement of assets. A well-designed RBC system should minimize costs associated with misclassification of insurers. The system should be able to identify a high proportion of troubled companies early enough to permit regulators to take prompt corrective action and should identify as troubled only a minimal proportion of financially sound insurers. This study analyzes data on solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers to determine whether modifications in the NAIC s RBC formula can improve its ability to predict firms that subsequently fail without substantially increasing the proportion of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail. It uses logistic regression models to investigate whether changes in the weight for the major components in the RBC formula and incorporation of information on company size and organizational form improve the tradeoff between Type I error rates (the percentage of insurers that later failed that are incorrectly predicted not to fail) and the Type II error rates (the percentage of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail). The data analyzed were for 1989-91 for firms that subsequently failed and for firms that survived through the first nine months of 1993. The authors make four main conclusions. First, less than half of the companies that later failed had RBC ratios within the proposed ranges for regulatory and company action. Second, total and component RBC ratios generally are significantly different for failed and surviving firms based on univariate tests. Third, estimation of multiple logistic regression models of insolvency risk indicated that allowing the weights of the RBC component to vary and including firm size and organizational form variables generally produce a material improvement in the tradeoff between sample Type I and Type II error rates. And, fourth,the RBC models are noticeably less successful in predicting large firm insolvencies than in predicting smaller insolvencies. Regarding the estimated weights in the logistic regression models, a major conclusion is the reserve component of the NAIC risk-based capital formula, which accounts for half of industry risk-based capital, has virtually no predictive power in any of the tests conducted. Given the high costs associated with large failures and the inferior performance of the models in predicting large insolvencies, a higher payoff in terms of reduced insolvency costs is likely to be achieved by developing models that perform better for large firms.

Lie Superalgebras and the Multiplet Structure of the Genetic Code II: Branching Schemes

Continuing our attempt to explain the degeneracy of the genetic code using basic classical Lie superalgebras, we present the branching schemes for the typical codon representations (typical 64-dimensional irreducible representations) of basic classical Lie superalgebras and find three schemes that do reproduce the degeneracies of the standard code, based on the orthosymplectic algebra osp(5|2) and differing only in details of the symmetry breaking pattern during the last step.Comment: 34 pages, 9 tables, LaTe

Generating-function method for fusion rules

This is the second of two articles devoted to an exposition of the generating-function method for computing fusion rules in affine Lie algebras. The present paper focuses on fusion rules, using the machinery developed for tensor products in the companion article. Although the Kac-Walton algorithm provides a method for constructing a fusion generating function from the corresponding tensor-product generating function, we describe a more powerful approach which starts by first defining the set of fusion elementary couplings from a natural extension of the set of tensor-product elementary couplings. A set of inequalities involving the level are derived from this set using Farkas' lemma. These inequalities, taken in conjunction with the inequalities defining the tensor products, define what we call the fusion basis. Given this basis, the machinery of our previous paper may be applied to construct the fusion generating function. New generating functions for sp(4) and su(4), together with a closed form expression for their threshold levels are presented.Comment: Harvmac (b mode : 47 p) and Pictex; to appear in J. Math. Phy

How effective is the Forestry Commission Scotland's woodland improvement programme--'Woods In and Around Towns' (WIAT)--at improving psychological well-being in deprived urban communities? A quasi-experimental study

Introduction: There is a growing body of evidence that suggests that green spaces may positively influence psychological well-being. This project is designed to take advantage of a natural experiment where planned physical and social interventions to enhance access to natural environments in deprived communities provide an opportunity to prospectively assess impacts on perceived stress and mental well-being.<p></p> Study design and methods: A controlled, prospective study comprising a repeat cross-sectional survey of residents living within 1.5 km of intervention and comparison sites. Three waves of data will be collected: prephysical environment intervention (2013); postphysical environment intervention (2014) and postwoodland promotion social intervention (2015). The primary outcome will be a measure of perceived stress (Perceived Stress Scale) preintervention and postintervention. Secondary, self-report outcomes include: mental well-being (Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale), changes in physical activity (IPAQ-short form), health (EuroQoL EQ-5D), perception and use of the woodlands, connectedness to nature (Inclusion of Nature in Self Scale), social cohesion and social capital. An environmental audit will complement the study by evaluating the physical changes in the environment over time and recording any other contextual changes over time. A process evaluation will assess the implementation of the programme. A health economics analysis will assess the cost consequences of each stage of the intervention in relation to the primary and secondary outcomes of the study.<p></p> Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approval has been given by the University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh College of Art Research, Ethics and Knowledge Exchange Committee (ref. 19/06/2012). Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, national and international conferences and, at the final stage of the project, through a workshop for those interested in implementing environmental interventions.<p></p&gt

Generating-function method for tensor products

This is the first of two articles devoted to a exposition of the generating-function method for computing fusion rules in affine Lie algebras. The present paper is entirely devoted to the study of the tensor-product (infinite-level) limit of fusions rules. We start by reviewing Sharp's character method. An alternative approach to the construction of tensor-product generating functions is then presented which overcomes most of the technical difficulties associated with the character method. It is based on the reformulation of the problem of calculating tensor products in terms of the solution of a set of linear and homogeneous Diophantine equations whose elementary solutions represent ``elementary couplings''. Grobner bases provide a tool for generating the complete set of relations between elementary couplings and, most importantly, as an algorithm for specifying a complete, compatible set of ``forbidden couplings''.Comment: Harvmac (b mode : 39 p) and Pictex; this is a substantially reduced version of hep-th/9811113 (with new title); to appear in J. Math. Phy

Hedgehog Pathway Activation Alters Ciliary Signaling in Primary Hypothalamic Cultures

Primary cilia dysfunction has been associated with hyperphagia and obesity in both ciliopathy patients and mouse models of cilia perturbation. Neurons throughout the brain possess these solitary cellular appendages, including in the feeding centers of the hypothalamus. Several cell biology questions associated with primary neuronal cilia signaling are challenging to address in vivo. Here we utilize primary hypothalamic neuronal cultures to study ciliary signaling in relevant cell types. Importantly, these cultures contain neuronal populations critical for appetite and satiety such as pro-opiomelanocortin (POMC) and agouti related peptide (AgRP) expressing neurons and are thus useful for studying signaling involved in feeding behavior. Correspondingly, these cultured neurons also display electrophysiological activity and respond to both local and peripheral signals that act on the hypothalamus to influence feeding behaviors, such as leptin and melanin concentrating hormone (MCH). Interestingly, we found that cilia mediated hedgehog signaling, generally associated with developmental processes, can influence ciliary GPCR signaling (Mchr1) in terminally differentiated neurons. Specifically, pharmacological activation of the hedgehog-signaling pathway using the smoothened agonist, SAG, attenuated the ability of neurons to respond to ligands (MCH) of ciliary GPCRs. Understanding how the hedgehog pathway influences cilia GPCR signaling in terminally differentiated neurons could reveal the molecular mechanisms associated with clinical features of ciliopathies, such as hyperphagia-associated obesity

Dynamics of silver elution from functionalised antimicrobial nanofiltration membranes

In an effort to mitigate biofouling on thin film composite membranes such as nanofiltration and reverse osmosis, a myriad of different surface modification strategies has been published. The use of silver nanoparticles (Ag-NPs) has emerged as being particularly promising. Nevertheless, the stability of these surface modifications is still poorly understood, particularly under permeate flux conditions. Leaching or elution of Ag-NPs from the membrane surface can not only affect the antimicrobial characteristics of the membrane, but could also potentially present an environmental liability when applied in industrial-scale systems. This study sought to investigate the dynamics of silver elution and the bactericidal effect of an Ag-NP functionalised NF270 membrane. Inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy was used to show that the bulk of leached silver occurred at the start of experimental runs, and was found to be independent of salt or permeate conditions used. Cumulative amounts of leached silver did, however, stabilise following the initial release, and were shown to have maintained the biocidal characteristics of the modified membrane, as observed by a higher fraction of structurally damaged Pseudomonas fluorescens cells. These results highlight the need to comprehensively assess the time-dependent nature of bactericidal membranes

Systematic review of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, and economic evaluation, of denosumab for the treatment of bone metastases from solid tumours

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