Examining leaders' orientations to structural constraints: Turkey's 1991 and 2003 Iraq war decisions

Explanations of states' security decisions prioritise structural - systemic, institutional and cultural - constraints that characterise foreign security decisions as a function of external/international, domestic/institutional, or normative/cultural factors. By examining Turkey's 1990-1991 and 2003 Iraq war decisions systematically, we problematise this prioritisation of structure, and we investigate the dynamic relationship between structural constraints and leaders in their decision-making environments. In these cases, while the structural constraints remain constant or indeterminate, the decision outcomes and the decision-making process differ significantly. Our findings, based on structured-focused comparison, process tracing, and leadership trait analysis, suggest that the leaders' personalities and how they react to constraints account for this difference and that dependence on only one set of factors leads to an incomplete understanding of security policies and international politics. We contribute to the broader understanding of leaders' personalities by suggesting that self-confidence and cognitive complexity are the key traits distinguishing leaders' orientations towards structural constraints. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Ltd

Evaluating track-two diplomacy in pre-negotiation: A comparative assessment of track-two initiatives on water and Jerusalem in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

This dissertation furthers our understanding of transfer from track-two diplomacy to macro-level by evaluating four track-two initiatives undertaken with Israelis and Palestinians over the issues of water and Jerusalem using the comparative case study method. In each of the two issue areas, two track-two initiatives are examined. All of these initiatives took place at the pre-negotiation stage and involved mid-to-high level participants. The initiatives are examined for the following: (1) the relational (affect) and cognitive outcomes achieved in the track-two initiatives, (2) the strategies and mechanisms planned in order to transfer these relational and cognitive elements, and (3) the implementation and barriers to the implementation of the strategies for transfer. The dissertation has discovered general trends across all track two initiatives as well as differences between the two issue areas. Findings suggest that both water and Jerusalem initiatives were successful in improving the overall relational climate as well as in instigating new learning among their participants, especially technical/professional skills and data (specifically for the Palestinians), new knowledge, and learning about the other. However, when it comes to the transfer of these outcomes, both the Jerusalem and the water initiatives were more successful in transferring the cognitive outcomes, especially ideas, proposals, skills and data, to upwards level rather than the relational outcomes. The dissertation also found that the initiatives were more successful in impacting the processes rather than impacting the outcome at the upwards level. Both initiatives primarily employed insider strategies to that end. Yet, during the implementation of these strategies two conditions impeded upwards transfer: (1) asymmetry between the parties with respect to their degree of separation from the political circles and asymmetrical transfer of people from track two initiatives to negotiations and policymaking positions, and (2) participants\u27 lack of representativeness of the typical members of the society and of the stakeholders that are able to influence the decision-making processes. This dissertation has implications for two theoretical streams: (1) evaluation of track-two diplomacy and of transfer , and (2) the contact hypothesis theory

Turkey's search for a third party role in Arab-Israeli conflicts: A neutral facilitator or a principal power mediator?

This paper examines Turkey’s increasing involvement in the Israeli–Syrian and Israeli–Palestinian conflicts as a third party in the last decade. The paper first discusses the underlying reasons and motivations behind the change inTurkish foreign policy. Inthis section we answer the following question: While the traditional Turkish policy in the Middle East was nonintervention, what factors contributed to this recent change? We discuss these as systemic factors and domestic factors. In the second section of the paper we summarize the theoretical literature on third party intervention and mediation especially focusing on strategies, modes, activities, and tactics used. This section lays the background for the following section which classifies the various Turkish third party strategies and activities in the Israeli–Syrian and Israeli–Palestinian conflicts so far. In the final section we focus on the challenges to this new Turkish role from Turkish, Israeli, and Arab perspectives. We also discuss the crises between Israel and Turkey in the last year and how they constitute a barrier to Turkey acting in an effective third party role

Representative Decision-Making: Challenges to Democratic Peace Theory

An attempt is made in this chapter to evaluate hypotheses derived from democratic peace theory. The key tenet of this theory is that democratic nations do not go to war with other democracies. Thus, regime type drives decisions to pursue war. The research to date has focused attention on regime type. This study expands this focus by examining the influences of a variety of variables on decisions made by role players to mobilize for war. In addition to own and other’s regime type, we include motivational, readiness, and identity variables. Further, the study examines two types of decisions: response to threats of violence and response to a humanitarian crisis in another country. The results show that the other’s regime motivates decisions to go to war when that nation is autocratic. However, that decision is contingent on the severity of the threat and the spread of public support for the action. The other’s regime type is not a source of decisions to act in humanitarian crises. The key factor in that situation is spread of support for the action. Interestingly, one’s own regime type (democracy) is the most important influence on both types of decisions when the other nation is democratic. These findings expand and refine democratic peace theory as well as provide a basis for further research

Healthy Life Behaviors and Suicide Probability in University Students

WOS: 000300075400005PubMed ID: 22284079This study aims to determine the sociodemographic factors and healthy life behaviors affecting suicide and suicide probability of university students. The research was designed as a complementary study and conducted with 334 students from several faculties and colleges at Ege University, Turkey. The study findings indicated that suicide probability could be affected by the students' age, their problems at school, their troubled relations with friends, and a psychiatric disorder history within the last year. Moreover, it was concluded that the students with healthy life behaviors had significantly lower scores on the Suicide Probability Scale and its subscales. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Decisionmaking process matters: lessons learned from two Turkish foreign policy cases

This article suggests that the nature of the decision unit and the decisionmaking rules influence the foreign policy decisionmaking process. This is especially the case in "complex" foreign policy decisions. We discuss two such cases from the Turkish context--the decision to intervene militarily in Cyprus in 1974 and the decision to accept the EU candidacy offer during the Helsinki Summit in 1999--by applying the "decision-units" framework. Our findings from the comparison of these two cases offer important lessons for Turkish foreign policy decision making especially under coalition decision units