GARCH modeling of robust market returns

Daily financial market returns (as log difference in closing prices) may be quite sensitive to operation with low trading volumes and big changes in prices frequently traded at market closing times. This paper proposes a more robust estimation of market returns by providing a new indicator that accounts for the information content in prices and trading volumes: the volume weighted return. Then, we estimate a GARCH (1,) model for the IBEX-35 futures market that includes shocks arising from countries linked to the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest that the impact of the relevant news coming from abroad and thus, it might be relevant to assess the linkage of one market to other economies

The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets

The paper analyses whether, and to what extent, emerging market economies (EMEs) have systemic importance for global financial markets, above and beyond their influence during crises episodes. Using a novel database of exogenous economic and political shocks for 14 systematically relevant EMEs, we find that EME shocks not only have a statistically but also economically significant impact on global equity markets. The economic significance of EME shocks is in particular underlined by their remarkably persistent effects over time. Importantly, EMEs are found to influence global equity markets about just as much in “good” times as in “bad” times, i.e. during crises or periods of financial turbulence. Finally, we detect a large degree of heterogeneity in the transmission of EME shocks to individual countries’ equity markets, stressing the different degrees of financial exposure, which is relatively higher for European equity markets. JEL Classification: F36, F30, G15equity markets, financial area, global financial markets, transmission, United States

Determinantes y perspectivas de la tasa de ahorro en Estados Unidos

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Finance for growth: does a balanced financial structure matter?

In this paper we explore empirically a long-standing question in the literature on finance for growth, namely whether the financial structure -in terms of the size of the banking system relative to the capital market- matters for economic growth. We build upon the existing literature by constructing a new measure of the balancedness of the financial structure which is broader, as it includes the domestic bond market as well as external sources of financing. It is also bounded and more linear than existing ones. We find that a more balanced financial structure -in terms of the size of banks relative to the capital markets- is associated with higher economic growth. Such finding points to banks and capital markets being more of a complement than a substitute. This is in line with Greenspan's idea of one market serving as spare wheel of the other

The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets

The paper analyses whether, and to what extent, emerging market economies (EMEs) have systemic importance for global financial markets, above and beyond their influence during crises episodes. Using a novel database of exogenous economic and political shocks for 14 EMEs, we find that EME shocks not only have a statistically but also economically significant impact on global equity markets. The economic significance of EME shocks is in particular underlined by their remarkably persistent effects over time. Importantly, EMEs are found to influence global equity markets about just as much in "good" times as in "bad" times, i.e. during crises or periods of financial turbulence. Finally, we detect a large degree of heterogeneity in the transmission of EME shocks to individual countries’ equity markets, stressing the different degrees of financial exposure, which is relatively higher for European equity market

La liberalización financiera de China : perspectivas para la política económica e implicaciones globales

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Rising food commodity prices and their pass-through to euro area consumer prices

Artículo de revistaThe global rise in food commodity prices is passing through strongly to the consumer prices that households pay for these products. Further, the current episode has seen a more widespread increase in food items than other historical periods of stress in these markets. The results of an econometric model reveal that a temporary increase of 10% in the rate of change of food commodity prices leads to a rise in euro area headline inflation (HICP) of around 0.3 percentage points after 12 months

Consumer food prices: recent developmentsin the euro area and Spain

Rationale Food prices have lately grown at rates unprecedented in recent decades. A detailed comparative analysis of these developments and their determinants from an international perspective is therefore interesting, focusing especially on dairy and cereals, given their high weight in the consumption basket and the strength of their inflation. Takeaways •Food inflation in Spain has not been particularly different from that recorded in the euro area. However, its contribution to headline inflation has been greater because of food’s higher weight in Spain’s consumption basket. •The prices of virtually all foods are rising, albeit with considerable heterogeneity. •Different essentially global factors, which affected food commodity supply and production costs, have been the main determinants of food price developments, as illustrated by dairy and cereals

El aumento de los precios de las materias primas alimenticias y su traslación a los precios de consumo en el área del euro

Artículo de revistaEl aumento de los precios de las materias primas alimenticias que se está produciendo a escala global está repercutiendo intensamente en los precios de consumo de estos productos que afrontan los hogares. En el episodio actual, además, destaca un incremento más generalizado de las partidas alimenticias que el observado en otras experiencias históricas de tensión en estos mercados. Los resultados de un modelo econométrico revelan que un aumento transitorio de un 10 % en la tasa de variación de los precios de las materias primas alimenticias repercute en una subida de la inflación total del área del euro (IAPC) de unas tres décimas al cabo de doce meses

El impacto de la crisis financiera en los mercados laborales de las economías desarrolladas

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