The interaction of value and subjective probability in decision making under risk

In a class of decision making situations known as risky situations subjects are presented with information concerning payoffs which are dependent on the occurrence of some events and the likelihood of achieving these payoffs, and are asked to make decisions or judgments in terms of these payoffs and probabilities. The question of whether subjects' judgments of the likelihood of achieving these payoffs are independent of the value of the payoffs is an important one for the understanding of decision making behaviour and has attracted some attention, but these investigations have not resulted in any unequivocal answers. The difficulty of answering this question was seen as bound up with the difficulty of making inferences about subjective probability or about changes in subjective probability from responses which are not probability estimates but are decisions which reflect both the Probabilities and the payoffs in the situation. This study was concerned with asking what kind of experiment could overcome these inference problems to provide unambiguous evidence about such change in subjective probability. Two kinds of experimental design were considered. In the first, a distinction which had been made in the literature between outcomes dependent on response (D.O.) and outcomes dependent only on the occurrence of an event (I.O.) was maintained. Changes in subjective probability were to be inferred from changes in the value of D.O. selected by subjects. Three experiments showed no evidence of change in these responses while one did show evidence of change in choice of D.O. Closer examination of individual protocols suggested that it was difficult to separate change in subjective probability from changes in decision strategy following the introduction of I.O. In the second kind of experiment the dependent variable was the evaluation of the worth of a gamble composed of payoffs and probabilities of achieving them. In one experiment a prediction about the independence of payoffs and probabilities in such evaluations was derived from expectation models and tested; in another two dependent variables were included and probabilities inferred from evaluations were compared with those probabilities directly estimated by subjects. In general there was little evidence of change in subjective probability, but different response measures gave different results and it seemed that what was lacked was any clear idea of how subjective probability entered into these evaluations, and that expectation models might not be adequate as models from which subjective probability could be inferred. From these experiments it was concluded that the kind of experiment required to investigate the interaction of value and subjective probability would be one which would include two dependent variables - inferred probabilities and direct estimates, in an examination of the role that subjective probability played in any one kind of decision situation

Fetal liver blood flow distribution: role in human developmental strategy to prioritize fat deposition versus brain development

Among primates, human neonates have the largest brains but also the highest proportion of body fat. If placental nutrient supply is limited, the fetus faces a dilemma: should resources be allocated to brain growth, or to fat deposition for use as a potential postnatal energy reserve? We hypothesised that resolving this dilemma operates at the level of umbilical blood distribution entering the fetal liver. In 381 uncomplicated pregnancies in third trimester, we measured blood flow perfusing the fetal liver, or bypassing it via the ductus venosus to supply the brain and heart using ultrasound techniques. Across the range of fetal growth and independent of the mother's adiposity and parity, greater liver blood flow was associated with greater offspring fat mass measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, both in the infant at birth (r = 0.43, P<0.001) and at age 4 years (r = 0.16, P = 0.02). In contrast, smaller placentas less able to meet fetal demand for essential nutrients were associated with a brain-sparing flow pattern (r = 0.17, p = 0.02). This flow pattern was also associated with a higher degree of shunting through ductus venosus (P = 0.04). We propose that humans evolved a developmental strategy to prioritize nutrient allocation for prenatal fat deposition when the supply of conditionally essential nutrients requiring hepatic inter-conversion is limited, switching resource allocation to favour the brain if the supply of essential nutrients is limited. Facilitated placental transfer mechanisms for glucose and other nutrients evolved in environments less affluent than those now prevalent in developed populations, and we propose that in circumstances of maternal adiposity and nutrient excess these mechanisms now also lead to prenatal fat deposition. Prenatal developmental influences play important roles in the human propensity to deposit fa

Why do some social insect queens mate with several males? Testing the sex-ratio manipulation hypothesis in Lasius niger

Although multiple mating most likely increases mortality risk for social insect queens and lowers the kin benefits for nonreproductive workers, a significant proportion of hymenopteran queens mate with several males. It has been suggested that queens may mate multiply as a means to manipulate sex ratios to their advantage. Multiple paternity reduces the extreme relatedness value of females for workers, selecting for workers to invest more in males. In populations with female-biased sex ratios, queens heading such male-producing colonies would achieve a higher fitness. We tested this hypothesis in a Swiss and a Swedish population of the ant Lasius niger. There was substantial and consistent variation in queen mating frequency and colony sex allocation within and among populations, but no evidence that workers regulated sex allocation in response to queen mating frequency; the investment in females did not differ among paternity classes. Moreover, population-mean sex ratios were consistently less female biased than expected under worker control and were close to the queen optimum. Queens therefore had no incentive to manipulate sex ratios because their fitness did not depend on the sex ratio of their colony. Thus, we found no evidence that the sex-ratio manipulation theory can explain the evolution and maintenance of multiple mating in L. niger

Perceived importance of components of asynchronous music in circuit training

This study examined regular exercisers’ perceptions of specific components of music during circuit training. Twenty-four men (38.8 years, s = 11.8 years) and 31 women (32.4 years, s = 9.6 years) completed two questionnaires immediately after a circuit training class. Participants rated the importance of 13 components of music (rhythm, melody, etc.) in relation to exercise enjoyment, and each completed the Affect Intensity Measure (Larsen, 1984) to measure emotional reactivity. Independent t tests were used to evaluate gender differences in perceptions of musical importance. Pearson correlations were computed to evaluate the relationships between affect intensity, age and importance of musical components. Consistent with previous research and theoretical predictions, rhythm response components (rhythm, tempo, beat) were rated as most important. Women rated the importance of melody significantly higher than did men, while men gave more importance to music associated with sport. Affect intensity was found to be positively and significantly related to the perceived importance of melody, lyrical content, musical style, personal associations and emotional content. Results suggest that exercise leaders need to be sensitive to personal factors when choosing music to accompany exercise. Qualitative research that focuses on the personal meaning of music is encouraged

Conflict between heterozygote advantage and hybrid incompatibility in haplodiploids (and sex chromosomes)

In many diploid species the sex chromosomes play a special role in mediating reproductive isolation. In haplodiploids, where females are diploid and males haploid, the whole genome behaves similarly to the X/Z chromosomes of diploids. Therefore, haplodiploid systems can serve as a model for the role of sex chromosomes in speciation and hybridization. A previously described population of Finnish Formica wood ants displays genome-wide signs of ploidally and sexually antagonistic selection resulting from hybridization. Here, hybrid females have increased survivorship but hybrid males are inviable. To understand how the unusual hybrid population may be maintained, we developed a mathematical model with hybrid incompatibility, female heterozygote advantage, recombination, and assortative mating. The rugged fitness landscape resulting from the co-occurrence of heterozygote advantage and hybrid incompatibility results in a sexual conflict in haplodiploids, which is caused by the ploidy difference. Thus, whereas heterozygote advantage always promotes long-term polymorphism in diploids, we find various outcomes in haplodiploids in which the population stabilizes either in favor of males, females, or via maximizing the number of introgressed individuals. We discuss these outcomes with respect to the potential long-term fate of the Finnish wood ant population, and provide approximations for the extension of the model to multiple incompatibilities. Moreover, we highlight the general implications of our results for speciation and hybridization in haplodiploids versus diploids, and how the described fitness relationships could contribute to the outstanding role of sex chromosomes as hotspots of sexual antagonism and genes involved in speciation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Age determination in individual wild-caught Drosophila serrata using pteridine concentration

Fluorescence spectrophotometry can reliably detect levels of the pteridine 6-biopterin in the heads of individual Drosophila serrata Malloch 1927. Pteridine content in both laboratory and field captured flies is typically a level of magnitude higher than the minimally detectable level (mean(lab)=0.54 units, mean(field)=0.44 units, minimum detectable level=0.01 units) and can be used to predict individual age in laboratory populations with high certainty (r(2)=57%). Laboratory studies of individuals of known age ( from 1 to 48 days old) indicate that while pteridine level increases linearly with age, they also increase in a linear manner with rearing temperature and ambient light levels, but are independent of sex. As expected, the longevity of laboratory-reared males ( at least 48 days) is higher than the range of predicted ages of wild-caught males based on individual pteridine levels (40 days). However, the predictive equation based on pteridine level alone suggested that a number of wild-caught males were less than 0 days old, and the 95% confidence for these predictions based on the inverse regression broad. The age of the oldest wild-caught male is to fall within the range of 2 to 50 days. The effects of temperature and light intensity determined in laboratory study (effect sizes omega(2)=14.3 and respectively) suggests that the calibration of the prediction equation for field populations would significantly improved when combined with fine scaled studies of habitat temperature and light conditions. ability to determine relative age in individual wild-caught D. serrata presents great opportunities for a variety evolutionary studies on the dynamics of populations

Parental cultural models and resources for understanding mathematical achievement in culturally diverse school settings

This paper proposes that the theoretical concept of cultural models can offer useful insights into parental involvement in their child’s mathematical achievement and the resources they use to go about gaining information in culturally diverse learning settings. This examination takes place within a cultural-developmental framework and draws on the notion of cultural models to explicate parental understandings of their child’s mathematics achievement and what resources are used to make sense of this. Three parental resources are scrutinized: (a) the teacher, (b) examination test results, and (c) constructions of child development. The interviews with 22 parents revealed some ambiguity around the interpretation of these resources by the parent, which was often the result of incongruent cultural models held between the home and the school. The resources mentioned are often perceived as being unambiguous but show themselves instead to be highly interpretive because of the diversity of cultural models in existence in culturally diverse settings. Parents who are in minority or marginalized positions tend to have difficulties in interpreting cultural models held by school, thereby disempowering them to be parentally involved in the way the school would like

Minimax Current Density Coil Design

'Coil design' is an inverse problem in which arrangements of wire are designed to generate a prescribed magnetic field when energized with electric current. The design of gradient and shim coils for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are important examples of coil design. The magnetic fields that these coils generate are usually required to be both strong and accurate. Other electromagnetic properties of the coils, such as inductance, may be considered in the design process, which becomes an optimization problem. The maximum current density is additionally optimized in this work and the resultant coils are investigated for performance and practicality. Coils with minimax current density were found to exhibit maximally spread wires and may help disperse localized regions of Joule heating. They also produce the highest possible magnetic field strength per unit current for any given surface and wire size. Three different flavours of boundary element method that employ different basis functions (triangular elements with uniform current, cylindrical elements with sinusoidal current and conic section elements with sinusoidal-uniform current) were used with this approach to illustrate its generality.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables. To appear in Journal of Physics D: Applied Physic