Spatial patterns in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle

This paper investigates the structural difference in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) over land resulting from choice of measuring device or model framework. It is shown that the timing can be reliably estimated from temporally sparse observations acquired from a constellation of low Earth-orbiting satellites given record lengths of at least three months. Based on a year of data, the spatial patterns of mean DTC timing are compared between temperature estimates from microwave Ka-band, geostationary thermal infrared (TIR), and numerical weather prediction model output from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It is found that the spatial patterns can be explained by vegetation effects, sensing depth differences and more speculatively the orientation of orographic relief features. In absolute terms, the GMAO model puts the peak of the DTC on average at 12:50 local solar time, 23 min before TIR with a peak temperature at 13:13 (both averaged over Africa and Europe). Since TIR is the shallowest observation of the land surface, this small difference represents a structural error that possibly affects the model's ability to assimilate observations that are closely tied to the DTC. The equivalent average timing for Ka-band is 13:44, which is influenced by the effect of increased sensing depth in desert areas. For non-desert areas, the Ka-band observations lag the TIR observations by only 15 min, which is in agreement with their respective theoretical sensing depth. The results of this comparison provide insights into the structural differences between temperature measurements and models, and can be used as a first step to account for these differences in a coherent way

Robustness and epistasis in mutation-selection models

We investigate the fitness advantage associated with the robustness of a phenotype against deleterious mutations using deterministic mutation-selection models of quasispecies type equipped with a mesa shaped fitness landscape. We obtain analytic results for the robustness effect which become exact in the limit of infinite sequence length. Thereby, we are able to clarify a seeming contradiction between recent rigorous work and an earlier heuristic treatment based on a mapping to a Schr\"odinger equation. We exploit the quantum mechanical analogy to calculate a correction term for finite sequence lengths and verify our analytic results by numerical studies. In addition, we investigate the occurrence of an error threshold for a general class of epistatic landscape and show that diminishing epistasis is a necessary but not sufficient condition for error threshold behavior.Comment: 20 pages, 14 figure

Pressure-Tuned Collapse of the Mott-Like State in Ca_{n+1}Ru_nO_{3n+1} (n=1,2): Raman Spectroscopic Studies

We report a Raman scattering study of the pressure-induced collapse of the Mott-like phases of Ca_3Ru_2O_7 (T_N=56 K) and Ca_2RuO_4 (T_N=110 K). The pressure-dependence of the phonon and two-magnon excitations in these materials indicate: (i) a pressure-induced collapse of the antiferromagnetic (AF) insulating phase above P* ~ 55 kbar in Ca_3Ru_2O_7 and P* ~ 5-10 kbar in Ca_2RuO_4, reflecting the importance of Ru-O octahedral distortions in stabilizing the AF insulating phase; and (ii) evidence for persistent AF correlations above the critical pressure of Ca_2RuO_4, suggestive of phase separation involving AF insulator and ferromagnetic metal phases.Comment: 3 figure

Population genetics in compressible flows

We study competition between two biological species advected by a compressible velocity field. Individuals are treated as discrete Lagrangian particles that reproduce or die in a density-dependent fashion. In the absence of a velocity field and fitness advantage, number fluctuations lead to a coarsening dynamics typical of the stochastic Fisher equation. We then study three examples of compressible advecting fields: a shell model of turbulence, a sinusoidal velocity field and a linear velocity sink. In all cases, advection leads to a striking drop in the fixation time, as well as a large reduction in the global carrying capacity. Despite localization on convergence zones, one species goes extinct much more rapidly than in well-mixed populations. For a weak harmonic potential, one finds a bimodal distribution of fixation times. The long-lived states in this case are demixed configurations with a single boundary, whose location depends on the fitness advantage.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, submitte

Longitudinal Useful Life Analysis and Replacement Strategies for LED Traffic Indicators

The application of Light Emitting Diode (LED) lighting systems has experienced significant growth in the transportation sector over the past 10 years. LED indication lifespans have significantly greater durations than previous technologies, however, uncertainties in the duration of LED devices have unearthed challenges in developing a replacement schedule of LED traffic indications. This research evaluates two methods to approximate the useful life of LED traffic indicators. Previous research in LED indications used a lateral regression analysis to determine the lifetime of LED indications. A new methodology is used to incorporate longitudinal regression analysis as well as account for additional factors outside previous research methods. The findings of this report compare the results using the new methodology against previous research recommendations. A discussion on the impact of the updated results on transportation agencies’ policies is also included. Findings indicate that useful life of the majority of LED indications is approximately two years longer than previously estimated

An Investigation of Certified Flight Instructor Competencies

The research literature documents distinct differences in teaching skills among instructors in a variety of fields. Some seem to be naturally skilled, whereas others seem to face more challenges in the instructional setting. Although several investigators have addressed a variety of questions concerning flight instructor training, more research is needed to elucidate the instructional competencies associated with successful instruction in this critical field. The proposed poster will present the preliminary results of an observational study designed to identify flight instructor competencies and patterns of instructional behavior. A preliminary set of essential instructor skills was developed based on instructor competencies as defined by the International Board of Standards for Training, Performance and Instruction (Klein, Spector, Grabowski, & de la Teja, 2004). Behaviors specific to flight instruction were then identified. During the Fall semester of 2006, 17 Certified Flight Instructor students were videotaped as they were instructing other students on a flight simulator. The researchers coded the student instructor behaviors using a data collection software product, Noldus Observer. Initial analyses revealed several distinct patterns in flight instructor behaviors. The poster will present the behavioral patterns observed in this study. The ways in which these data may be used to develop further studies to investigate methods of enhancing instructor performance will also be discussed

Analytical study of the effect of recombination on evolution via DNA shuffling

We investigate a multi-locus evolutionary model which is based on the DNA shuffling protocol widely applied in \textit{in vitro} directed evolution. This model incorporates selection, recombination and point mutations. The simplicity of the model allows us to obtain a full analytical treatment of both its dynamical and equilibrium properties, for the case of an infinite population. We also briefly discuss finite population size corrections

Carbonates from the ancient world's longest aqueduct:A testament of Byzantine water management

The fourth‐ and fifth‐century aqueduct system of Constantinople is, at 426 km, the longest water supply line of the ancient world. Carbonate deposits in the aqueduct system provide an archive of both archaeological developments and palaeo‐environmental conditions during the depositional period. The 246‐km‐long aqueduct line from the fourth century used springs from a small aquifer, whereas a 180‐km‐long fifth‐century extension to the west tapped a larger aquifer. Although historical records testify at least 700 years of aqueduct activity, carbonate deposits in the aqueduct system display less than 27 years of operation. This implies that the entire system must have been cleaned of carbonate, presumably during regular campaigns. A 50‐km‐long double‐aqueduct section in the central part of the system may have been a costly but practical solution to allow repairs and cleaning of the aqueducts of carbonate to ascertain a continuous water supply to the city. The fifth‐century channel was commonly contaminated with clay, caused by the nature of the aqueduct system and possible local damage to the channel. This clay‐rich water could have been one of the reasons for the construction of large reservoirs in Constantinople. imageLeverhulme Trust http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000275Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/50110000165

Ordering in voter models on networks: Exact reduction to a single-coordinate diffusion

We study the voter model and related random-copying processes on arbitrarily complex network structures. Through a representation of the dynamics as a particle reaction process, we show that a quantity measuring the degree of order in a finite system is, under certain conditions, exactly governed by a universal diffusion equation. Whenever this reduction occurs, the details of the network structure and random-copying process affect only a single parameter in the diffusion equation. The validity of the reduction can be established with considerably less information than one might expect: it suffices to know just two characteristic timescales within the dynamics of a single pair of reacting particles. We develop methods to identify these timescales, and apply them to deterministic and random network structures. We focus in particular on how the ordering time is affected by degree correlations, since such effects are hard to access by existing theoretical approaches.Comment: 37 pages, 10 figures. Revised version with additional discussion and simulation results to appear in J Phys

Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models.

Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs