The Livingston Survey: Still Useful After All These Years

The decisions of households, firms, and government agencies depend on forecasts of the overall economy. Large firms and the federal government often have the resources to hire their own economists to provide forecasts. But households, small firms, and local governments often depend on surveys of forecasters to get their information. In this article, Dean Croushore spotlights the Livingston Survey, which, even after 50 years, still provides useful forecasts of the economy

Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?

In 1993, the Philadelphia Fed undertook a project to develop a real-time data set for macroeconomists, who can use these data in many ways — for example, when analyzing indexes of consumer confidence. existing research indicates that consumer-confidence measures, though highly correlated with future spending, do not improve forecasts of future spending. but these studies used revised data that were not available to forecasters at the time they made their forecasts. In this article, Dean Croushore uses the real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time — that is, real-time data — make measures of consumer confidence more valuable for forecasting

The Effect of Government Deficits on Consumption and Interest Rates: A Two Equation Approach

Single-equation estimation of the consumption function often is used in testing the Ricardian equivalence theorem. This approach may be misleading, as effects on interest rates usually are ignored. This paper proposes simultaneous estimation of consumption and investment equations, with the interest rate serving to equilibrate the market. Five existing studies are replicated and subjected to sensitivity tests. The results show that the interest rate is important in the consumption function. The Ricardian equivalence theorem is tested, but the results are mixed

Philadelphia Fed Forecasting Surveys: Their Value for Research

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has conducted both the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Livingston Survey for 20 years. Both surveys of private-sector forecasters provide researchers, central bankers, news media, and the public with detailed forecasts of major macroeconomic variables. The surveys have proved helpful for people who are planning for the future, and they have also provided useful input into the decisions of policymakers at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere. In this article, Dean Croushore provides an overview of the surveys and discusses the ways in which researchers have used the surveys

Using Real World Applications to Policy and Everyday Life to Teach Money and Banking

Teaching a course in money and banking can be simultaneously challenging and easy. It is challenging because teaching the course well often requires a fair amount of institutional knowledge, which an instructor may not have acquired in graduate school. However, it is easy because the course can be geared to the coverage of current events, so economic data releases and the state of the economy help the instructor develop a new course every semester and produce an interesting lecture every day. There are many different ways to teach a course on money and banking. At most schools, the only prerequisite is principles of economics, so the course typically covers financial markets and institutions, present value, principles of banking, basic macroeconomic concepts, institutional details of central banking, and key concepts concerning monetary policy. At some universities, students take a course in intermediate macroeconomics before they take money and banking, so students can see how monetary policy operates in the context of a detailed macroeconomic model. At other universities, especially those without finance courses, the course may be geared more to the microeconomics of financial markets, and may contain more detailed discussions of institutions and the determination of asset prices

Real-Time Forecasting

This chapter will discuss real-time forecasting in a macroeconomic policy context. I will begin by talking about the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a survey of private-sector forecasters. Next, I will discuss research on real-time data analysis and its importance in forecasting. Finally, I will discuss real-time forecasting in the 1990s

U.S. Coins: Forecasting Change

Although the government annually produces about 70 new coins for every man, woman, and child, the economy’s need for coins can vary from year to year. So how do the U.S. Mint, which makes the coins, and the Federal Reserve, which distributes them, decide how many coins the economy needs? Dean Croushore highlights some facts about coins and describes how demand for change is forecast

Government Financial Policy and Capital

Economists have long been concerned about the best way to finance government deficits. Finding the proper fiscal policy and monetary policy mix is a crucial decision. When government debt grows too fast, interest rates rise and capital is crowded out. If the money growth rate is excessive, inflation occurs. The study of this issue at the theoretical level requires a model which incorporates the following features: (1) modeling money and bonds as endogenous financial assets, whose rates of return are determined in general equilibrium, (2) examination of the utility maxi mization decisions of individuals, so that welfare analysis of alternative policies may be made, (3) modeling the government\u27s optimization problem and its budget constraint, and (4) modeling capital investment, showing how the returns to financial assets affect investment decisions. In such a model, the government\u27s financing decisions affect the rates of return on money and bonds, which affect the welfare of individuals. Standard models in the economic literature do not satisfy all these features. The purpose of this paper is to derive such a model

Inflation Forecasts: How Good Are They?

Forecasts of inflation affect decision-making in many segments of the economy. But in the early 1980s, economists found that forecasts in surveys taken over the past 20 years systematically underpredicted inflation. As a result, many economists stopped paying attention to forecasts. However, they may have abandoned them too quickly. In this article, Dean Croushore takes a closer look at survey forecasts and, after considering some relevant factors, concludes that inflation forecasts may not be as bad as you think