Quaternary paleoceanography of the central arctic based on Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Arctic Coring Expedition 302 foraminiferal assemblages

The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) Hole 4C from the Lomonosov Ridge in the central Arctic Ocean recovered a continuous 18 m record of Quaternary foraminifera yielding evidence for seasonally ice-free interglacials during the Matuyama, progressive development of large glacials during the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) �1.2–0.9 Ma, and the onset of high-amplitude 100-ka orbital cycles �500 ka. Foraminiferal preservation in sediments from the Arctic is influenced by primary (sea ice, organic input, and other environmental conditions) and secondary factors (syndepositional, long-term pore water dissolution). Taking these into account, the ACEX 4C record shows distinct maxima in agglutinated foraminiferal abundance corresponding to several interglacials and deglacials between marine isotope stages (MIS) 13–37, and although less precise dating is available for older sediments, these trends appear to continue through the Matuyama. The MPT is characterized by nearly barren intervals during major glacials (MIS 12, 16, and 22–24) and faunal turnover (MIS 12–24). Abundant calcareous planktonic (mainly Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sin.) and benthic foraminifers occur mainly in interglacial intervals during the Brunhes and very rarely in the Matuyama. A distinct faunal transition from calcareous to agglutinated foraminifers 200–300 ka in ACEX 4C is comparable to that found in Arctic sediments from the Lomonosov, Alpha, and Northwind ridges and the Morris Jesup Rise. Down-core disappearance of calcareous taxa is probably related to either reduced sea ice cover prior to the last few 100-ka cycles, pore water dissolution, or both

Multi-proxy record of ocean-climate variability during the last two millennia on the Mackenzie Shelf, Beaufort Sea

A 2,000 year-long oceanographic history, in sub-centennial resolution, from a Canadian Beaufort Sea continental shelf site (60 meters water depth) near the Mackenzie River outlet is reconstructed from ostracode and foraminifera faunal assemblages, shell stable isotopes (δ18O, δ13C) and sediment biogenic silica. The chronology of three sediment cores making up the composite section was established using 137Cs and 210Pb dating for the most recent 150 years and combined with linear interpolation of radiocarbon dates from bivalve shells and foraminifera tests. Continuous centimeter-sampling of the multicore and high-resolution sampling of a gravity and piston core yielded a time-averaged faunal record of every ~40 years from 0 to 1850 CE and every ~24 years from 1850 to 2013 CE. Proxy records were consistent with temperature oscillations and related changes in organic carbon cycling associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Abundance changes in dominant microfossil species, such as the ostracode Paracyprideis pseudopunctillata and agglutinated foraminifers Spiroplectammina biformis and S. earlandi, are used as indicators of less saline, and possibly corrosive/turbid bottom conditions associated with the MCA (~800-1200 CE) and the most recent ~60 years (1950-2013). During these periods, pronounced fluctuations in these species suggest that prolonged seasonal sea-ice melting, changes in riverine inputs and sediment dynamics affected the benthic environment. Taxa analyzed for stable oxygen isotope composition of carbonates show the lowest δ18O values during intervals within the MCA and the highest during the late LIA, which is consistent with a 1° to 2°C cooling of bottom waters. Faunal and isotopic changes during the cooler LIA (1300-1850 CE) are most apparent at ~1500-1850 CE and are particularly pronounced during 1850 to ~1900 CE, with a ~0.5 per mil increase in δ18O values of carbonates from median values in the analyzed taxa. This very cold 50-year period suggests that enhanced summer sea ice suppressed productivity, which is indicated by low sediment biogenic silica values and lower δ13C values in analyzed species. From 1900 CE to present, declines in calcareous faunal assemblages and changes in dominant species (Cassidulina reniforme and P. pseudopunctillata) are associated with less hospitable bottom waters, indicated by a peak in agglutinated foraminifera from 1950-1990 CE

Introduction of organised mammography screening in tyrol: results of a one-year pilot phase

Background: Efficiency and efficacy of organised mammography screening programs have been proven in large randomised trials. But every local implementation of mammography screening has to check whether the well established quality standards are met. Therefore it was the aim of this study to analyse the most common quality indices after introducing organised mammography screening in Tyrol, Austria, in a smooth transition from the existing system of opportunistic screening. Methods: In June 2007, the system of opportunistic mammography screening in Tyrol was changed to an organised system by introducing a personal invitation system, a training program, a quality assurance program and by setting up a screening database. All procedures are noted in a written protocol. Most EU recommendations for organised mammography screening were followed, except double reading. All women living in Tyrol and covered by social insurance are now invited for a mammography, in age group 40-59 annually and in age group 60-69 biannually. Screening mammography is offered mainly by radiologists in private practice. We report on the results of the first year of piloting organised mammography screening in two counties in Tyrol. Results: 56,432 women were invited. Estimated participation rate was 34.5% at one year of follow-up (and 55.5% at the second year of follow-up); 3.4% of screened women were recalled for further assessment or intermediate screening within six months. Per 1000 mammograms nine biopsies were performed and four breast cancer cases detected (N = 68). Of invasive breast cancer cases 34.4% were ≤ 10 mm in size and 65.6% were node-negative. In total, six interval cancer cases were detected during one year of follow-up; this is 19% of the background incidence rate. Conclusions: In the Tyrolean breast cancer screening program, a smooth transition from a spontaneous to an organised mammography screening system was achieved in a short time and with minimal additional resources. One year after introduction of the screening program, most of the quality indicators recommended by the European guidelines had been reached. However, it will be necessary to introduce double reading, to change the rule for BI-RADS 3, and to concentrate on actions toward improving the participation rate

Adaptation and validation of the Charlson Index for Read/OXMIS coded databases

BACKGROUND: The Charlson comorbidity index is widely used in ICD-9 administrative data, however, there is no translation for Read/OXMIS coded data despite increasing use of the General Practice Research Database (GPRD). Our main objective was to translate the Charlson index for use with Read/OXMIS coded data such as the GPRD and test its association with mortality. We also aimed to provide a version of the comorbidity index for other researchers using similar datasets. METHODS: Two clinicians translated the Charlson index into Read/OXMIS codes. We tested the association between comorbidity score and increased mortality in 146 441 patients from the GPRD using proportional hazards models. RESULTS: This Read/OXMIS translation of the Charlson index contains 3156 codes. Our validation showed a strong positive association between Charlson score and age. Cox proportional models show a positive increasing association with mortality and Charlson score. The discrimination of the logistic regression model for mortality was good (AUC = 0.853). CONCLUSION: We have translated a commonly used comorbidity index into Read/OXMIS for use in UK primary care databases. The translated index showed a good discrimination in our study population. This is the first study to develop a co-morbidity index for use with the Read/OXMIS coding system and the GPRD. A copy of the co-morbidity index is provided for other researchers using similar database

Time-dependent response of a zonally averaged ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model to Milankovitch forcing

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer-Verlag for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 6 (2010): 763-779, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0790-6.An ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model is developed to explore the time-dependent response of climate to Milankovitch forcing for the time interval 5-3 Myr BP. The ocean component is a zonally averaged model of the circulation in five basins (Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans). The atmospheric component is a one-dimensional (latitudinal) energy balance model, and the sea-ice component is a thermodynamic model. Two numerical experiments are conducted. The first experiment does not include sea ice and the Arctic Ocean; the second experiment does. Results from the two experiments are used to investigate (i) the response of annual mean surface air and ocean temperatures to Milankovitch forcing, and (ii) the role of sea ice in this response. In both experiments, the response of air temperature is dominated by obliquity cycles at most latitudes. On the other hand, the response of ocean temperature varies with latitude and depth. Deep water formed between 45°N-65°N in the Atlantic Ocean mainly responds to precession. In contrast, deep water formed south of 60°S responds to obliquity when sea ice is not included. Sea ice acts as a time-integrator of summer insolation changes such that annual mean sea-ice conditions mainly respond to obliquity. Thus, in the presence of sea ice, air temperature changes over the sea ice are amplified, and temperature changes in deep water of southern origin are suppressed since water below sea ice is kept near the freezing point.This work was supported by an NSERC Discovery Grant awarded to L.A.M. We also thank GEC3 for a Network Grant

Executive control of bureaucracy and presidential cabinet appointments in East Asian democracies

This article examines the role of cabinet appointments in controlling the bureaucracy in presidential democracies. I demonstrate how administrative challenges stemming from the structure of the bureaucracy shape presidential choice of ministers. Analyzing a sample of four East Asian cases from 1986 through 2013, I find that presidents are more likely to select ministers from the civil service as bureaucracies are more professionalized, controlling for several political factors. Further evidence from qualitative interviews and case studies suggests that, in professionalized systems equipped with a sizable pool of talent but lacking responsiveness, presidents tend to promote ideologically aligned senior civil servants. However, in politicized systems, where presidents easily obtain responsiveness but face a low level of competence, policy experts tend to be selected from outside the bureaucracy. My findings have important implications for the regulatory governance and state capacity of East Asia, demonstrating the value of balancing between responsiveness and competence

Search for sterile neutrino mixing in the MINOS long-baseline experiment

A search for depletion of the combined flux of active neutrino species over a 735 km baseline is reported using neutral-current interaction data recorded by the MINOS detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. Such a depletion is not expected according to conventional interpretations of neutrino oscillation data involving the three known neutrino flavors. A depletion would be a signature of oscillations or decay to postulated noninteracting sterile neutrinos, scenarios not ruled out by existing data. From an exposure of 3.18×1020 protons on target in which neutrinos of energies between ~500¿¿MeV and 120 GeV are produced predominantly as ¿µ, the visible energy spectrum of candidate neutral-current reactions in the MINOS far detector is reconstructed. Comparison of this spectrum to that inferred from a similarly selected near-detector sample shows that of the portion of the ¿µ flux observed to disappear in charged-current interaction data, the fraction that could be converting to a sterile state is less than 52% at 90% confidence level (C.L.). The hypothesis that active neutrinos mix with a single sterile neutrino via oscillations is tested by fitting the data to various models. In the particular four-neutrino models considered, the mixing angles ¿24 and ¿34 are constrained to be less than 11° and 56° at 90% C.L., respectively. The possibility that active neutrinos may decay to sterile neutrinos is also investigated. Pure neutrino decay without oscillations is ruled out at 5.4 standard deviations. For the scenario in which active neutrinos decay into sterile states concurrently with neutrino oscillations, a lower limit is established for the neutrino decay lifetime t3/m3>2.1×10-12¿¿s/eV at 90% C.L