Homogeneous links, Seifert surfaces, digraphs and the reduced Alexander polynomial

We give a geometric proof of the following result of Juhasz. \emph{Let $a_g$ be the leading coefficient of the Alexander polynomial of an alternating knot $K$. If $|a_g|<4$ then $K$ has a unique minimal genus Seifert surface.} In doing so, we are able to generalise the result, replacing `minimal genus' with `incompressible' and `alternating' with `homogeneous'. We also examine the implications of our proof for alternating links in general.Comment: 37 pages, 28 figures; v2 Main results generalised from alternating links to homogeneous links. Title change

The prevalence of blinding trachoma in northern states of Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Despite historical evidence of blinding trachoma, there have been no widespread contemporary surveys of trachoma prevalence in the northern states of Sudan. We aimed to conduct district-level surveys in this vast region in order to map the extent of the problem and estimate the need for trachoma control interventions to eliminate blinding trachoma. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Separate, population based cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 88 localities (districts) in 12 northern states of Sudan between 2006 and 2010. Two-stage cluster random sampling with probability proportional to size was used to select the sample. Trachoma grading was done using the WHO simplified grading system. Key prevalence indicators were trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) in adults aged 15 years and above. The sample comprised 1,260 clusters from which 25,624 households were surveyed. A total of 106,697 participants (81.6% response rate) were examined for trachoma signs. TF prevalence was above 10% in three districts and between 5% and 9% in 11 districts. TT prevalence among adults was above 1% in 20 districts (which included the three districts with TF prevalence >10%). The overall number of people with TT in the population was estimated to be 31,072 (lower and upper bounds = 26,125-36,955). CONCLUSION: Trachoma mapping is complete in the northern states of Sudan except for the Darfur States. The survey findings will facilitate programme planning and inform deployment of resources for elimination of trachoma from the northern states of Sudan by 2015, in accordance with the Sudan Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) objectives

A guide to evaluating linkage quality for the analysis of linked data.

Linked datasets are an important resource for epidemiological and clinical studies, but linkage error can lead to biased results. For data security reasons, linkage of personal identifiers is often performed by a third party, making it difficult for researchers to assess the quality of the linked dataset in the context of specific research questions. This is compounded by a lack of guidance on how to determine the potential impact of linkage error. We describe how linkage quality can be evaluated and provide widely applicable guidance for both data providers and researchers. Using an illustrative example of a linked dataset of maternal and baby hospital records, we demonstrate three approaches for evaluating linkage quality: applying the linkage algorithm to a subset of gold standard data to quantify linkage error; comparing characteristics of linked and unlinked data to identify potential sources of bias; and evaluating the sensitivity of results to changes in the linkage procedure. These approaches can inform our understanding of the potential impact of linkage error and provide an opportunity to select the most appropriate linkage procedure for a specific analysis. Evaluating linkage quality in this way will improve the quality and transparency of epidemiological and clinical research using linked data

Perinatal mortality associated with induction of labour versus expectant management in nulliparous women aged 35 years or over: An English national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A recent randomised controlled trial (RCT) demonstrated that induction of labour at 39 weeks of gestational age has no short-term adverse effect on the mother or infant among nulliparous women aged ≥35 years. However, the trial was underpowered to address the effect of routine induction of labour on the risk of perinatal death. We aimed to determine the association between induction of labour at ≥39 weeks and the risk of perinatal mortality among nulliparous women aged ≥35 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data collected between April 2009 and March 2014 to compare perinatal mortality between induction of labour at 39, 40, and 41 weeks of gestation and expectant management (continuation of pregnancy to either spontaneous labour, induction of labour, or caesarean section at a later gestation). Analysis was by multivariable Poisson regression with adjustment for maternal characteristics and pregnancy-related conditions. Among the cohort of 77,327 nulliparous women aged 35 to 50 years delivering a singleton infant, 33.1% had labour induced: these women tended to be older and more likely to have medical complications of pregnancy, and the infants were more likely to be small for gestational age. Induction of labour at 40 weeks (compared with expectant management) was associated with a lower risk of in-hospital perinatal death (0.08% versus 0.26%; adjusted risk ratio [adjRR] 0.33; 95% CI 0.13-0.80, P = 0.015) and meconium aspiration syndrome (0.44% versus 0.86%; adjRR 0.52; 95% CI 0.35-0.78, P = 0.002). Induction at 40 weeks was also associated with a slightly increased risk of instrumental vaginal delivery (adjRR 1.06; 95% CI 1.01-1.11, P = 0.020) and emergency caesarean section (adjRR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09, P = 0.019). The number needed to treat (NNT) analysis indicated that 562 (95% CI 366-1,210) inductions of labour at 40 weeks would be required to prevent 1 perinatal death. Limitations of the study include the reliance on observational data in which gestational age is recorded in weeks rather than days. There is also the potential for unmeasured confounders and under-recording of induction of labour or perinatal death in the dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Bringing forward the routine offer of induction of labour from the current recommendation of 41-42 weeks to 40 weeks of gestation in nulliparous women aged ≥35 years may reduce overall rates of perinatal death

Characterization of Knots and Links Arising From Site-specific Recombination on Twist Knots

We develop a model characterizing all possible knots and links arising from recombination starting with a twist knot substrate, extending previous work of Buck and Flapan. We show that all knot or link products fall into three well-understood families of knots and links, and prove that given a positive integer $n$, the number of product knots and links with minimal crossing number equal to $n$ grows proportionally to $n^5$. In the (common) case of twist knot substrates whose products have minimal crossing number one more than the substrate, we prove that the types of products are tightly prescribed. Finally, we give two simple examples to illustrate how this model can help determine previously uncharacterized experimental data.Comment: 32 pages, 7 tables, 27 figures, revised: figures re-arranged, and minor corrections. To appear in Journal of Physics

Vascular Health in American Football Players: Cardiovascular Risk Increased in Division III Players

Studies report that football players have high blood pressure (BP) and increased cardiovascular risk. There are over 70,000 NCAA football players and 450 Division III schools sponsor football programs, yet limited research exists on vascular health of athletes. This study aimed to compare vascular and cardiovascular health measures between football players and nonathlete controls. Twenty-three athletes and 19 nonathletes participated. Vascular health measures included flow-mediated dilation (FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT). Cardiovascular measures included clinic and 24 hr BP levels, body composition, VO2 max, and fasting glucose/cholesterol levels. Compared to controls, football players had a worse vascular and cardiovascular profile. Football players had thicker carotid artery IMT (0.49 ± 0.06 mm versus 0.46 ± 0.07 mm) and larger brachial artery diameter during FMD (4.3 ± 0.5 mm versus 3.7 ± 0.6 mm), but no difference in percent FMD. Systolic BP was significantly higher in football players at all measurements: resting (128.2 ± 6.4 mmHg versus 122.4 ± 6.8 mmHg), submaximal exercise (150.4 ± 18.8 mmHg versus 137.3 ± 9.5 mmHg), maximal exercise (211.3 ± 25.9 mmHg versus 191.4 ± 19.2 mmHg), and 24-hour BP (124.9 ± 6.3 mmHg versus 109.8 ± 3.7 mmHg). Football players also had higher fasting glucose (91.6 ± 6.5 mg/dL versus 86.6 ± 5.8 mg/dL), lower HDL (36.5±11.2 mg/dL versus 47.1±14.8 mg/dL), and higher body fat percentage (29.2±7.9% versus 23.2±7.0%). Division III collegiate football players remain an understudied population and may be at increased cardiovascular risk

Effectiveness of a quality improvement collaborative in reducing time to surgery for patients requiring emergency cholecystectomy.

Background:Acute gallstone disease is a high-volume emergency general surgery presentation with wide variations in the quality of care provided across the UK. This controlled cohort evaluation assessed whether participation in a quality improvement collaborative approach reduced time to surgery for patients with acute gallstone disease to fewer than 8 days from presentation, in line with national guidance. Methods:Patients admitted to hospital with acute biliary conditions in England and Wales between 1 April 2014 and 31 December 2017 were identified from Hospital Episode Statistics data. Time series of quarterly activity were produced for the Cholecystectomy Quality Improvement Collaborative (Chole-QuIC) and all other acute National Health Service hospitals (control group). A negative binomial regression model was used to compare the proportion of patients having surgery within 8 days in the baseline and intervention periods. Results:Of 13 sites invited to join Chole-QuIC, 12 participated throughout the collaborative, which ran from October 2016 to January 2018. Of 7944 admissions, 1160 patients had a cholecystectomy within 8 days of admission, a significant improvement (P < 0·050) from baseline performance. This represented a relative change of 1·56 (95 per cent c.i. 1·38 to 1·75), compared with 1·08 for the control group. At the individual site level, eight of the 12 Chole-QuIC sites showed a significant improvement (P < 0·050), with four sites increasing their 8-day surgery rate to over 20 per cent of all emergency admissions, well above the mean of 15·3 per cent for control hospitals. Conclusion:A surgeon-led quality improvement collaborative approach improved care for patients requiring emergency cholecystectomy

A novel approach selected small sets of diagnosis codes with high prediction performance in large healthcare datasets.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study was to examine an approach for selecting small sets of diagnosis codes with high prediction performance in large datasets of electronic medical records. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: This was a modeling study using national hospital and mortality records for patients with myocardial infarction (n = 200,119), hip fracture (n = 169,646), or colorectal cancer surgery (n = 56,515) in England in 2015-2017. One-year mortality was predicted from ICD-10 codes recorded for at least 0.5% of patients using logistic regression ('full' models). An approximation method was used to select fewer codes that explained at least 95% of variation in full model predictions ('reduced' models). RESULTS: One-year mortality was 17.2% (34,520) after myocardial infarction, 27.2% (46,115) after hip fracture, and 9.3% (5,273) after colorectal surgery. Full models included 202, 257, and 209 ICD-10 codes in these populations. C-statistics for these models were 0.884 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.882, 0.886), 0.798 (0.795, 0.800), and 0.810 (0.804, 0.817). Reduced models included 18, 33, and 41 codes and had c-statistics of 0.874 (95% CI 0.872, 0.876), 0.791 (0.788, 0.793), and 0.807 (0.801, 0.813). Performance was also similar when measured using Brier scores. All models were well calibrated. CONCLUSION: Our approach selected small sets of diagnosis codes that predicted patient outcomes comparably to large, comprehensive sets of codes

Logistic regression and machine learning predicted patient mortality from large sets of diagnosis codes comparably.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to compare the performance of logistic regression and boosted trees for predicting patient mortality from large sets of diagnosis codes in electronic healthcare records. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We analyzed national hospital records and official death records for patients with myocardial infarction (n = 200,119), hip fracture (n = 169,646), or colorectal cancer surgery (n = 56,515) in England in 2015-2017. One-year mortality was predicted from patient age, sex, and socioeconomic status, and 202 to 257 International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision codes recorded in the preceding year or not (binary predictors). Performance measures included the c-statistic, scaled Brier score, and several measures of calibration. RESULTS: One-year mortality was 17.2% (34,520) after myocardial infarction, 27.2% (46,115) after hip fracture, and 9.3% (5,273) after colorectal surgery. Optimism-adjusted c-statistics for the logistic regression models were 0.884 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.882, 0.886), 0.798 (0.796, 0.800), and 0.811 (0.805, 0.817). The equivalent c-statistics for the boosted tree models were 0.891 (95% CI: 0.889, 0.892), 0.804 (0.802, 0.806), and 0.803 (0.797, 0.809). Model performance was also similar when measured using scaled Brier scores. All models were well calibrated overall. CONCLUSION: In large datasets of electronic healthcare records, logistic regression and boosted tree models of numerous diagnosis codes predicted patient mortality comparably