Chaotic price dynamics of agricultural commodities

Traditionally, commodity prices have been analyzed and modeled in the context of linear generating processes. The purpose of this dissertation is to address the adequacy of this work through examination of the critical assumption of independence in the residual process of linearly specified models. As an alternative, a test procedure is developed and utilized to demonstrate the appropriateness of applying generalized conditional heteroscedastic time series models (GARCH) to agricultural commodity prices. In addition, a distinction is made between testing for independence and testing for chaos in commodity prices. The price series of interest derive from the major international agricultural commodity markets, sampled monthly over the period 1960--1994. The results of the present analysis suggest that for bananas, beef, coffee, soybeans, wool and wheat seasonally adjusted growth rates, ARCH-GARCH models account for some of the non-linear dependence in these commodity price series. As an alternative to the ARCH-GARCH models, several neural network models were estimated and in some cases outperformed the ARCH family of models in terms of forecast ability. This further demonstrated the nonlinearity present in these time series. Although, further examination is needed, all prices were found to be non-linearly dependent. It was determined by use of different statistical measures for testing for deterministic chaos that wheat prices may be an example of such behavior. Therefore, their may be something to be gained in terms of short-run forecast accuracy by using semi-parametric modeling approaches as applied to wheat prices

Spectral infrared hemispherical reflectance measurements for LDEF tray clamps

Infrared hemispherical reflectance measurements that were made on 58 chromic acid anodized tray clamps from LDEF are described. The measurements were made using a hemiellipsoidal mirror reflectometer with interferometer for wavelengths between 2-15 microns. The tray clamps investigated were from locations about the entire spacecraft and provided the opportunity for comparing the effects of atomic oxygen at each location. Results indicate there was essentially no dependence on atomic oxygen fluence for the surfaces studied, but there did appear to be a slight dependence on solar radiation exposure. The reflectances of the front sides of the tray clamps consistently were slightly higher than for the protected rear tray clamp surfaces

Surface drift charts for the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: For the region of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean between 0° and 300 N, and between 1200 W and the coastline of the Americas, charts of surface drift have been prepared for each month of the year. These should be of interest to both mariners and oceanographers. SPANISH: Cartas de la deriva de superficie para la región del Océano Pacífico Oriental Tropical, comprendida entre 0° y 30° N., Y 120° O. y la línea de la costa de las Américas fueron preparadas por cada mes del año. Estas pueden interesar tanto a los marinos como a los oceanógrafos. (PDF contains 23 pages.

Evaluation of Ocular Outcomes in Two 14-day Bed Rest Studies

No abstract availabl

Six-Degree Head-Down Tilt Bed Rest: Forty Years of Development as a Physiological Analog for Weightlessness

Early on, bed rest was recognized as a method for inducing many of the physiological changes experienced by spaceflight. Head-down tilt (HDT) bed rest was first introduced as an analog for spaceflight by a Soviet team led by Genin and Kakurin. Their study was performed in 1970 (at -4 degrees) and lasted for 30 days; results were reported in the Russian Journal of Space Biology (Kosmicheskaya Biol. 1972; 6(4): 26-28 & 45-109). The goal was to test physiological countermeasures for cosmonauts who would soon begin month-long missions to the Salyut space station. HDT was chosen to produce a similar sensation of blood flow to the head reported by Soyuz cosmonauts. Over the next decade, other tilt angles were studied and comparisons with spaceflight were made, showing that HDT greater than 4 degrees was superior to horizontal bed rest for modeling acute physiological changes observed in space; but, at higher angles, subjects experienced greater discomfort without clearly improving the physiological comparison to spaceflight. A joint study performed by US and Soviet investigators, in 1979, set the goal of standardization of baseline conditions and chose 6-degrees HDT. This effectively established 6-degree HDT bed rest as the internationally-preferred analog for weightlessness and, since 1990, nearly all further studies have been conducted at 6-degrees HDT. A thorough literature review (1970-2010) revealed 534 primary scientific journal articles which reported results from using HDT as a physiological analog for spaceflight. These studies have ranged from as little as 10 minutes to the longest duration of 370 days. Long-term studies lasting four weeks or more have resulted in over 170 primary research articles. Today, the 6-degree HDT model provides a consistent, thoroughly-tested, ground-based analog for spaceflight and allows the proper scientific controls for rigorous testing of physiological countermeasures; however, all models have their strengths and limits. The 6-degrees HDT model must continue to be scrutinized, re-examined, validated and compared to other analog environments whenever possible. Only by understanding the strengths and limits of this model, will it continue to serve as a critical physiological analog to spaceflight for many more years to come

Recruitment and Retention Strategies for Minority or Poor Clinical Research Participants: Lessons From the Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity Across the Life Span Study

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY: Investigating health disparities requires studies designed to recruit and retain racially and socioeconomically diverse cohorts. It is critical to address the barriers that disproportionately affect participation in clinical research by minorities and the socioeconomically disadvantaged. This study sought to identify and rectify these barriers to recruit and retain a biracial (African American and non-Hispanic White) and socioeconomically diverse cohort for a longitudinal study. DESIGN AND METHOD: The Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity across the Life Span study is a 20-year longitudinal examination of how race and socioeconomic status influence the development of age-related health disparities. One goal was to create a multifactorial recruitment and retention strategy. The recruitment paradigm targeted known barriers and identified those unique to the study's urban environment. The retention paradigm mirrored the recruitment plan but was based on specifically developed approaches. RESULTS: This cohort recruitment required attention to developing community partnerships, designing the research study to meet the study hypotheses and to provide benefit to participants, providing a safe community-based site for the research and creating didactics to develop staff cultural proficiency. These efforts facilitated study implementation and enhanced recruitment resulting in accrual of a biracial and socioeconomically diverse cohort of 3,722 participants. IMPLICATIONS: Recruiting and retaining minority or poor research participants is challenging but possible. The essential facets include clear communication of the research hypothesis, focus on providing a direct benefit for participants, and selection of a hypothesis that is directly relevant to the community studied.http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/geront/gnr02

Constructing the Cubus simus and the Dodecaedron simum via paper folding

The archimedean solids Cubus simus (snub cube) and Dodecaedron simum (snub dodecahedron) cannot be constructed by ruler and compass. We explain that for general reasons their vertices can be constructed via paper folding on the faces of a cube, respectively dodecahedron, and we present explicit folding constructions. The construction of the Cubus simus is particularly elegant. We also review and prove the construction rules of the other Archimedean solids.Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures, v2: as published in Geometriae Dedicat

Comparison of Ocular Outcomes in Two 14-Day Bed Rest Studies

Reports of astronauts' visual changes have raised concern about ocular health during long-duration spaceflight. Some of these findings include globe flattening with hyperopic shifts, choroidal folds, optic disc edema, retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickening, and cotton wool spots. While the etiology remains unknown, it is hypothesized that, in predisposed individuals, hypertension in the brain may follow cephalad fluid shifts during spaceflight. This possible mechanism of ocular changes may also apply to analogous cases of idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH) or pseudotumor cerebri on Earth patients. Head-down t ilt (HDT) bed rest is a spaceflight analog that induces cephalad fluid shifts. Previous studies of the HDT position demonstrated body fluid shifts associated with changes in intraocular pressure (IOP) but the conditions of bed rest varied among experiments, making it difficult to compare data and draw conclusions. For these reasons, vision evaluation of bed rest subjects was implemented for NASA bed rest studies since 2010, in an attempt to monitor vision health in subjects subjected to bed rest. Vision monitoring is thus currently performed in all NASA-conducted bed rest campaign