Long-Term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison

This is the final version of the article. Available from the American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. MostEMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs forRCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination ofCO2 emissions in allEMICs.Restoration of atmosphericCO2 fromRCPto preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.KZ and AJW acknowledge support from the National Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) Discovery Grant Program. AJW acknowledges support from NSERC's G8 Research Councils Initiative on Multilateral Research Funding Program. AVE and IIM were supported by the President of Russia Grant 5467.2012.5, by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, and by the programs of the Russian Academy of Sciences. EC, TF, HG, and GPB acknowledge support from the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office. FJ, RS, and MS acknowledge support by the Swiss National Science Foundation and by the European Project CARBOCHANGE (Grant 264879), which received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013). PBH and NRE acknowledge support from EU FP7 Grant ERMITAGE 265170

Earmarks and Subcommittee Government in the U.S. Congress

In recent years, considerable scholarly attention has focused on earmarks, the quintessential example of pork barrel politics. We assess the degree to which existing theories can explain the distribution of earmarks in the U.S. House of Representatives. First, drawing on informal interviews with individuals on Capitol Hill regarding the earmark process, we argue that assessing institutional and constituency-level factors that affect the earmark receipts of individual members requires examination at the level of the Appropriations subcommittees. Second, we demonstrate that both distributive and partisan theories of legislative organization are applicable to the distribution of earmarks. Finally, we present results indicating that contrary to the conventional wisdom, most subcommittees do not distribute pork based on electoral vulnerability. Rather, legislators’ status in the appropriations process has the most influence. These findings offer insights into the path forward as debate continues over congressionally directed spending.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Incorporating ‘recruitment’ in matrix projection models : estimation, parameters, and the influence of model structure

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Ornithology 152, Suppl.2 (2012):585-595, doi:10.1007/s10336-010-0573-1.Advances in the estimation of population parameters using encounter data from marked individuals have made it possible to include estimates of the probability of recruitment in population projection models. However, the projected growth rate of the population, and the sensitivity of projected growth to changes in recruitment, can vary significantly depending upon both the structural form of the model and how recruitment is parameterized. We show that the common practices of (1) collapsing some age classes into a single, terminal ‘aggregated’ age-class, and (2) parameterizing recruitment using the proportion of recruited individuals (breeders) in a given age-class may confound analysis of age-based (Leslie) matrix projection models in some instances, relative to state-based projection models where recruited and pre-recruited individuals are treated as separate states. Failing to account for these differences can lead to misinterpretation of the relative role of recruitment in the dynamics of an age-structured population.We show that such problems can be avoided, either by structural changes to the terminal aggregated age-class in age-based models, or by using using a state-based model instead. Since all the metrics of general interest from a classical age-based matrix models are readily derived from a state-based model equivalent, this suggests there may be little reason to use the classical age-based approach in situations where recruitment is a parameter of interest

Expedition 361 summary

International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 361 drilled six sites on the southeast African margin (southwest Indian Ocean) and in the Indian-Atlantic Ocean gateway, from 30 January to 31 March 2016. In total, 5175 m of core was recovered, with an average recovery of 102%, during 29.7 days of on-site operations. The sites, situated in the Mozambique Channel at locations directly influenced by discharge from the Zambezi and Limpopo River catchments, the Natal Valley, the Agulhas Plateau, and Cape Basin, were targeted to reconstruct the history of the greater Agulhas Current system over the past ~5 My. The Agulhas Current is the strongest western boundary current in the Southern Hemisphere, transporting some 70 Sv of warm, saline surface water from the tropical Indian Ocean along the East African margin to the tip of Africa. Exchanges of heat and moisture with the atmosphere influence southern African climates, including individual weather systems such as extratropical cyclone formation in the region and rainfall patterns. Recent ocean model and paleoceanographic data further point at a potential role of the Agulhas Current in controlling the strength and mode of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Late Pleistocene. Spillage of saline Agulhas water into the South Atlantic stimulates buoyancy anomalies that may influence basin-wide AMOC, with implications for convective activity in the North Atlantic and global climate change. The main objectives of the expedition were to establish the role of the Agulhas Current in climatic changes during the Pliocene–Pleistocene, specifically to document the dynamics of the Indian-Atlantic Ocean gateway circulation during this time, to examine the connection of the Agulhas leakage and AMOC, and to address the influence of the Agulhas Current on African terrestrial climates and coincidences with human evolution. Additionally, the expedition set out to fulfill the needs of Ancillary Project Letter number 845, consisting of high-resolution interstitial water sampling to help constrain the temperature and salinity profiles of the ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum. The expedition made major strides toward fulfilling each of these objectives. The recovered sequences allowed generation of complete spliced stratigraphic sections that range from 0 to between ~0.13 and 7 Ma. This sediment will provide decadal- to millennial-scale climatic records that will allow answering the paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic questions set out in the drilling proposal