Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle dies with instantaneous rate $\mu_n$. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics

Cortisol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, and androstenedione levels in patients with polymyalgia rheumatica during twelve months of glucocorticoid therapy

This paper aims to evaluate adrenal gland hormone levels in patients with polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) during glucocorticoid (GC) therapy. A lower than expected basal production of cortisol was found in active and glucocorticoid-untreated PMR patients, particularly females. The abrupt onset of PMR with clinical features similar to those of the steroid-withdrawal syndrome or adrenal insufficiency, as well as the clinical response to GC therapy in elderly people already age-disposed to an inadequate adrenal and anti-inflammatory response, might represent the most significant pathophysiological basis of the disease

Pruebas de vigor y calidad fisiológica de semillas de soja Vigor tests and physiological quality of soybean seeds

El objetivo de este trabajo fue estudiar las alteraciones producidas por el deterioro en semillas de soja (Glycine max L. Merrill) utilizando diferentes pruebas de vigor. Se utilizaron semillas de soja de diferentes cultivares en 1997 y 1998, las cuales fueron sometidas a la prueba de germinación y diferentes pruebas de vigor: envejecimiento acelerado; conductividad eléctrica; deterioro controlado y tetrazolio. El deterioro controlado en semillas con 22% de humedad mostró ser un mejor indicador de la disminución del vigor de la semilla de soja que el envejecimiento acelerado. La conductividad eléctrica en semillas individuales podría ser considerada una buena prueba de vigor para detectar alteraciones producidas en las membranas citoplasmáticas en un estadio temprano del deterioro de las semillas. La clasificación de la viabilidad y el vigor a través de la prueba de tetrazolio está dada por el lugar donde se produce el daño y no por el tipo de daño que sufre la semilla.<br>The objective of this work was to study soybean (Glycine max L. Merrill) seed alterations produced by deterioration using different vigor tests. Soybean seeds of different cultivars were used in 1997 and 1998, which were submitted to standard germination test and the vigor tests: accelerated aging; electric conductivity; controlled deterioration and tetrazolium. The controlled deterioration with an elevation of the seed humidity to 22%, showed to be a better indicator of the diminishing of soybean seed vigor than the accelerated aging. The electric conductivity in individual seeds would be considered a good vigor test to detect the alterations produced in the cytoplasmic membranes in an early stage of the seed deterioration. The tetrazolium test by the evaluation of the different kinds of injuries suffered by the seeds, depends on the place where the seed is damaged not on the kind of injury suffered by the seed

Avaliação da qualidade de sementes de cedro (Cedrela fissilis - meliaceae) pelo teste de raios X Evaluation of the seed quality in Cedrela fissilis - (meliaceae) by X-ray test

O teste de raios X tem se demonstrado uma técnica muito eficiente no controle de qualidade de sementes de espécies florestais, caracterizando fases do desenvolvimento, danos causados por secagem, beneficiamento e predação, entre outros. Objetivouse com este trabalho avaliar a qualidade física de sementes de cedro (Cedrela fissilis) pelo teste de raios X. Para isso, após o beneficiamento, as sementes de cedro foram expostas às seguintes condições de intensidade de radiação e tempos (25 Kv durante 60/30 segundos e 30 Kv durante 40 segundos) para determinar o padrão de raios X. De acordo com a anatomia visualizada pela imagem radiográfica, as sementes foram classificadas em Sementes Cheias, Sementes Com Danos, Sementes Mal Formadas e Sementes Vazias. Em seguida, foi realizado o teste de germinação em BOD, utilizando-se substrato de papel umedecido dentro de caixas para germinação, sob 25ºC e luz branca constante. Ao final de 20 dias, foram registrados os números de plântulas normais, anormais e sementes mortas. Pelos resultados obtidos, a intensidade de radiação de 25 Kv durante 60 segundos permitiu melhor visualização das características internas e os danos observados pela imagem radiográfica afetaram a germinação das sementes, reduzindo a qualidade do lote.<br>The X-ray has showed to be a very efficient technique in the quality control of forest tree seeds, characterizing development phases, damages caused by dehydration, improvement and infestation, among others. The aim of this work was to evaluate the physical quality of cedar seeds (Cedrela fissilis) by X-ray test. For this, the cedar seeds were exposed at the following conditions of radiation intensity and times (25 Kv during 60/30 seconds and 30 Kv during 40 seconds) to determine the pattern of X-rays. According to the anatomy visualized by the radiographic image, seeds were classified in Full Seeds; Seeds With Damages, Deformed Seeds and Empty Seeds. Soon after, the seeds were submitted to the germination test, accomplished in BOD, using paper substratum damped in boxes for germination under 25ºC and white light. After 20 days, the numbers of normal, abnormal seedlings and died seeds were registered. From the results obtained the intensity of radiation of 25 Kv in the time of exposure of 60 seconds allowed clear visualization of the internal characteristics and damages observed. By the radiographic damage affected the seed germination reducing the plot quality