Moving from non-interventionism to industrial strategy: The roles of tentative and definitive governance in support of the UK biotech sector

This paper develops a framework for characterising tentative and definitive governance modes. Using investor financing of UK-based therapeutic biotech firms as a context, the paper traces how policy-makers have blended tentative and definitive elements in the design and implementation of six different kinds of policies to spur investor support for these firms. We find that tentative and definitive governance are used together to balance the need for certainty with necessary responsiveness to the dynamic circumstances that surround technological emergence. Moreover we show that the relative use of tentative and definitive modes is shaped as much by higher-level landscape-level influences as by technology or sector-level factors. Challenges are also identified, for instance, how to maintain synergistic rather than either/or relationships between state and non-state actors when both hesitate to engage with markets at different times

The relationship between efavirenz as initial antiretroviral therapy and suicidal thoughts among HIV-infected adults in routine care

Background: Evidence about the effect of initiating efavirenz-containing combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) as the first-line therapy on suicidal thoughts remains conflicting. Methods: Using data from a cohort of HIV-infected adults enrolled in routine care across 5 sites in the United States, we included participants with a baseline patient-reported outcome measure and detectable viral load who initiated ART between 2011 and 2014. Participants were followed until the earliest of the following: first suicidal thoughts, discontinuation of initial ART regimen, death, loss to care (>12 months with no HIV appointments), or administrative censoring (2014-2015). Suicidal thoughts were measured using a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 item. We used weighted marginal structural Cox models to estimate the effect of initiating efavirenz-containing ART, versus efavirenz-free ART, on the hazard of active or passive suicidal thoughts after ART initiation, accounting for confounding by channeling bias. Results: Overall, 597 participants were followed for a median of 19 months (13, 132 total person-months); 147 (25%) initiated efavirenz-containing ART. At ART initiation, 38% of participants reported suicidal thoughts or depressive symptoms. Initiating efavirenz-based ART was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) for suicidal thoughts below the null in the crude analysis [HR, 0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.53 to 1.45] and above the null in the weighted analysis (HR, 1.21; 95% CI: 0.66 to 2.28). Among those with a prior mental health issue, the weighted HR was 1.76 (95% CI: 0.45 to 6.86). Conclusions: After accounting for measured channeling bias, we observed no strong evidence that initiating efavirenz-containing ART increased the hazard of suicidal thoughts

Multicenter Development and Validation of a Model for Predicting Retention in Care Among People with HIV

Predictive analytics can be used to identify people with HIV currently retained in care who are at risk for future disengagement from care, allowing for prioritization of retention interventions. We utilized machine learning methods to develop predictive models of retention in care, defined as no more than a 12 month gap between HIV care appointments in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort. Data were split longitudinally into derivation and validation cohorts. We created logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and gradient boosted machine (XGB) models within a discrete-time survival analysis framework and compared their performance to a baseline model that included only demographics, viral suppression, and retention history. 21,267 Patients with 507,687 visits from 2007 to 2018 were included. The LR model outperformed the baseline model (AUC 0.68 [0.67–0.70] vs. 0.60 [0.59–0.62], P < 0.001). RF and XGB models had similar performance to the LR model. Top features in the LR model included retention history, age, and viral suppression

The Genetics of Generalized Osteoarthritis (GOGO) study: study design and evaluation of osteoarthritis phenotypes

PURPOSE: The primary goal of the Genetics of Generalized Osteoarthritis (GOGO) study is to identify chromosomal regions associated with increased susceptibility to generalized osteoarthritis (OA). Here we describe the study design and phenotype of the 2728 participants from the 1145 families recruited for this study. METHODS: GOGO is an investigator-initiated collaboration involving seven clinical academic sites and sponsored by GlaxoSmithKline. Family ascertainment was carried out between 1999 and 2002. A qualifying family required self-reported Caucasian ethnicity and at least two affected siblings with clinical hand OA. We hypothesized that this clinical phenotype would facilitate identification of participants with multijoint radiographic OA (rOA) in and beyond the hand. The "gold standard" case definition, however, was based on rOA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade > or =2) involving > or =3 hand joints distributed bilaterally and including at least one distal interphalangeal joint, with two of the three involved joints within a joint group (distal interphalangeal, proximal interphalangeal, or carpometacarpal). Radiographs of hips, knees and spine were also obtained. Additional siblings and living parents from qualifying families, both affected and unaffected, were invited to participate. RESULTS: A total of 2706 participants had complete clinical and radiological examination data. Of these, 2569 participants met clinical examination criteria for affected status; while 1963 (73%) participants met the prespecified radiographic criteria for affected status. This corresponded to a total of 707 families with at least two affected siblings that met the hand rOA criteria. Of those individuals with rOA of the hand, the frequency of rOA at other sites was highest for the knee (51%) and spine (54%), and less common for the hip (25%). Concordance rates among hand affected siblings were greatest for spine (36%) followed by knee (31%) and hip (9%); a total of 53% of the affected sib pairs were concordant for specific patterns of generalized rOA involving the hand and large joints (knees, hips or spine). CONCLUSIONS: GOGO represents a large multicenter collection of families with multiple joint OA that have been characterized both clinically and radiographically. The GOGO study will employ a comprehensive strategy for genetic screening based upon both qualitative and quantitative radiographic trait analyses, circulating biomarkers in a quantitative trait-based analysis, fine mapping, and candidate gene analysis. This sample should provide sufficient power to detect linkage to OA associated genes

Antiretroviral drug class and anaemia risk in the current treatment era among people living with HIV in the USA: a clinical cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Anaemia is common among people living with HIV (PLWH) and has been associated with certain, often older, antiretroviral medications. Information on current antiretroviral therapy (ART) and anaemia is limited. The objective was to compare the associations between anaemia incidence or haemoglobin change with core ART classes in the current ART era. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: USA-based prospective clinical cohort of PLWH aged 18 and above receiving care at eight sites between January 2010 and March 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 16 505 PLWH were included in this study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Anaemia risk and haemoglobin change were estimated among PLWH for person-time on a protease inhibitor (PI) or an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based regimen, relative to a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based reference. We also examined PLWH on regimens containing multiple core classes. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to measure the associations between time-updated ART classes and incident anaemia or severe anaemia. Linear mixed effects models were used to examine the relationships between ART classes and haemoglobin change. RESULTS: During a median of 4.9 years of follow-up, 1040 developed anaemia and 488 developed severe anaemia. Compared with NNRTI use, INSTI-based regimens were associated with an increased risk of anaemia (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.26, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.58) and severe anaemia (aHR 1.51, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.11) and a decrease in haemoglobin level. Time on multiple core classes was also associated with increased anaemia risk (aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.70), while no associations were found for PI use. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest INSTI use may increase the risk of anaemia. If confirmed, screening for anaemia development in users of INSTIs may be beneficial. Further research into the underlying mechanisms is warranted

Risk factors for atrial fibrillation in a multicenter United States clinical cohort of people with HIV infection

To assess atrial fibrillation risk factors in people with HIV, we identified incident atrial fibrillation in a large clinical cohort of people receiving care. Compared with 970 controls without atrial fibrillation, the 97 with adjudicated incident atrial fibrillation were older, less likely Hispanic, and had more coronary disease, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In multivariable analysis, nonuse of antiretroviral therapy and prescription of antiretroviral regimens with multiple core agents were associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk

Incident AIDS or death after initiation of human immunodeficiency virus treatment regimens including raltegravir or efavirenz among adults in the United States

Background. The long-term effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatments containing integrase inhibitors is unknown. Methods. We use observational data from the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate 4-year risk of AIDS and all-cause mortality among 415 patients starting a raltegravir regimen compared to 2646 starting an efavirenz regimen (both regimens include emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate). We account for confounding and selection bias as well as generalizability by standardization for measured variables, and present both observational intent-to-treat and per-protocol estimates. Results. At treatment initiation, 12% of patients were female, 36% black, 13% Hispanic; median age was 37 years, CD4 count 321 cells/µL, and viral load 4.5 log10 copies/mL. Two hundred thirty-five patients incurred an AIDS-defining illness or died, and 741 patients left follow-up. After accounting for measured differences, the 4-year risk was similar among those starting both regimens (ie, intent-to treat hazard ratio [HR], 0.96 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .63–1.45]; risk difference, −0.9 [95% CI, −4.5 to 2.7]), as well as among those remaining on regimens (ie, per-protocol HR, 0.95 [95% CI, .59–1.54]; risk difference, −0.5 [95% CI, −3.8 to 2.9]). Conclusions. Raltegravir and efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral therapy have similar 4-year clinical effects. Vigilance regarding longer-term comparative effectiveness of HIV regimens using observational data is needed because large-scale experimental data are not forthcoming

Associations between At-Risk Alcohol Use, Substance Use, and Smoking with Lipohypertrophy and Lipoatrophy among Patients Living with HIV

To examine associations between lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy and illicit drug use, smoking, and at-risk alcohol use among a large diverse cohort of persons living with HIV (PLWH) in clinical care. 7,931 PLWH at six sites across the United States completed 21,279 clinical assessments, including lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy, drug/alcohol use, physical activity level, and smoking. Lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy were measured using the FRAM body morphology instrument and associations were assessed with generalized estimating equations. Lipohypertrophy (33% mild, 4% moderate-to-severe) and lipoatrophy (20% mild, 3% moderate-to-severe) were common. Older age, male sex, and higher current CD4 count were associated with more severe lipohypertrophy (p values <.001-.03). Prior methamphetamine or marijuana use, and prior and current cocaine use, were associated with more severe lipohypertrophy (p values <.001-.009). Older age, detectable viral load, and low current CD4 cell counts were associated with more severe lipoatrophy (p values <.001-.003). In addition, current smoking and marijuana and opiate use were associated with more severe lipoatrophy (p values <.001-.03). Patients with very low physical activity levels had more severe lipohypertrophy and also more severe lipoatrophy than those with all other activity levels (p values <.001). For example, the lipohypertrophy score of those reporting high levels of physical activity was on average 1.6 points lower than those reporting very low levels of physical activity (-1.6, 95% CI:-1.8 to-1.4, p <.001). We found a high prevalence of lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy among a nationally distributed cohort of PLWH. While low levels of physical activity were associated with both lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy, associations with substance use and other clinical characteristics differed between lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy. These results support the conclusion that lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy are distinct, and highlight differential associations with specific illicit drug use

Anemia risk factors among people living with HIV across the United States in the current treatment era: A clinical cohort study

Background: Anemia is common among people living with HIV infection (PLWH) and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Information on risk factors for anemia incidence in the current antiretroviral therapy (ART) era is lacking. Methods: Within a prospective clinical cohort of adult PLWH receiving care at eight sites across the United States between 1/2010-3/2018, Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted among a) PLWH free of anemia at baseline and b) PLWH free of severe anemia at baseline to determine associations between time-updated patient characteristics and development of anemia (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL), or severe anemia (hemoglobin < 7.5 g/dL). Linear mixed effects models were used to examine relationships between patient characteristics and hemoglobin levels during follow-up. Hemoglobin levels were ascertained using laboratory data from routine clinical care. Potential risk factors included: age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, hazardous alcohol use, illicit drug use, hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), CD4 cell count, viral load, ART use and time in care at CNICS site. Results: This retrospective cohort study included 15,126 PLWH. During a median follow-up of 6.6 (interquartile range [IQR] 4.3-7.6) years, 1086 participants developed anemia and 465 participants developed severe anemia. Factors that were associated with incident anemia included: older age, female sex, black race, HCV coinfection, lower CD4 cell counts, VL ≥400 copies/ml and lower eGFR. Conclusion: Because anemia is a treatable condition associated with increased morbidity and mortality among PLWH, hemoglobin levels should be monitored routinely, especially among PLWH who have one or more risk factors for anemia

Effect of Adopting the New Race-Free 2021 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Creatinine Equation on Racial Differences in Kidney Disease Progression among People with Human Immunodeficiency Virus: An Observational Study

Background: The impact of adopting a race-free estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) creatinine (eGFRcr) equation on racial differences in chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression among people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) is unknown. Methods: We defined eGFR stages using the original race-adjusted Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) eGFRcr equation and the new race-free CKD-EPI eGFRcr equation. We then estimated 5-year probabilities of transitioning from baseline kidney function to more advanced eGFR stages and examined the association of race (black vs white) with rates of CKD progression using Markov models. Results: With the race-adjusted eGFRcr equation, black participants (n = 31 298) had a lower risk of progressing from eGFR stage 1 to 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI],. 73-.82), an equal risk of progressing from stage 2 to 3 (1.00;. 92-.07) and a 3-fold risk of progressing from stage 3 to 4 or 5 (3.06; 2.60-3.62), compared with white participants (n = 27 542). When we used the race-free eGFRcr equation, 16% of black participants were reclassified into a more severe eGFR stage at baseline. The reclassified black individuals had a higher prevalence of CKD risk factors than black PWH who were not reclassified. With the race-free eGFRcr equation, black participants had a higher risk of disease progression across all eGFR stages than white participants. Conclusions: The original eGFRcr equation systematically masked a subgroup of black PWH who are at high-risk of CKD progression. The new race-free eGFRcr equation unmasks these individuals and may allow for earlier detection and management of CKD