Data for the paper on "Early school failure predicts teenage pregnancy and marriage: a large population-based cohort study in Northern Malawi"

The data originate from a demographic surveillance site (DSS) in Karonga district in northern Malawi covering a population of >35,000 individuals from approx. 8000 households since 2002. This is run by MEIRU (Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit). Annual individual and household-level socio-demographic and schooling data were combined with data on participants’ sexual behaviour, including age at sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage to examine the relationship between school progression (drop-out and age-for-grade) and sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage

Postpartum uptake of contraception in rural northern Malawi: A prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: Cross-sectional estimates of contraceptive use do not provide understanding of time to postpartum uptake. This paper uses a range of Malawian data sources: a prospective study to explore time to uptake of contraception and a cross-sectional survey to assess whether sexually active postpartum women whose fecundity has returned use contraception, and whether abstaining/amenorrheic women report using contraception. STUDY DESIGN: A demographic surveillance site (DSS) in Malawi was used to identify 7393 women aged 15-49 years eligible for a 1-year prospective study of contraception using provider-recorded data on patient-held records (2012-2013). This provided a reliable record of time to uptake of postpartum contraception. The average timing of resumption of sexual activities after postpartum abstinence and return of menses was estimated from a population-based sexual behaviour survey in the DSS (2010-2011). RESULTS: Of 4678 women recruited to the prospective contraception study, 442 delivered an infant during the observation period. Of these, 28.4% used modern contraception within 6 months of delivery. However, at 6-9 months after delivery, only 28.0% women had started menstruation and resumed sexual activities; of these, 77.6% used contraception. Amongst abstaining/amenorrheic women, a quarter reported contraceptive use. CONCLUSIONS: The low uptake of postpartum contraception is likely due to many women abstaining and/or experiencing amenorrhea. Self-reports of contraceptive use amongst abstaining/amenorrheic women bring into question the quality of cross-sectional surveys and demonstrate that contraceptive use by women at low risk of pregnancy could contribute to the Malawi paradox of high contraceptive use and high fertility. Given relatively low risk of pregnancy in the postpartum period in this context, a focus on long-acting/permanent methods may be more effective to avert unintended pregnancies. IMPLICATIONS: There has been increasing interest in the utility of postpartum contraceptive programmes to assist women to space births. Our findings suggest that, although uptake of contraception is low, this is partly due to postpartum abstinence and amenorrhea. Provision of long-acting/permanent methods will be more effective for women after delivery

Data for the paper on “Does early growth failure influence later school performance? A cohort study in Karonga district, northern Malawi”

Anthropometric data collected as part of the baseline census of a demographic surveillance performed between 2002 and 2004 in the southern part of Karonga district in northern Malawi. Data was collected at birth, with follow-up after a year and with further rounds of anthropometric data for all children below the age of 10 between 2008-2011. Individual and household-level socio-demographic and schooling data were also combined to account for socio-economic and schooling histories of participants from 2007-2015, allowing us to examine the relationship between stunting in early years and school outcomes at older ages

Trends and measurement of HIV prevalence in northern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Most data on HIV prevalence in Malawi come from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance and are, therefore, subject to bias. OBJECTIVES: HIV prevalence and risk factors were measured using population-based data to assess the accuracy of ANC surveillance and changes in prevalence and risk factors for HIV over time. METHODS: HIV prevalence was measured in 1988-1993 and 1998-2001 in community controls from case-control studies of mycobacterial disease in Karonga District, Malawi. ANC surveillance studies in the district began in 1999. RESULTS: Age and area-standardized HIV prevalence in women aged 15-49 years in the community was 3.9% in 1988-1990, 12.5% in 1991-1993 and 13.9% in 1998-2001. For men, HIV prevalence was 3.7%, 9.2% and 11.4% in the same periods. In 1988-1993, HIV positivity was associated with occupations other than farming, with increased schooling and being born outside Karonga District. In 1998-2001, non-farmers were still at higher risk but the other associations were not seen. The age- and area-adjusted HIV prevalence in the ANC in 1999-2001 was 9.2%. The underestimate can be explained largely by marriage and mobility. Reduced fertility in HIV-positive individuals was demonstrated in both ANC and community populations. A previously recommended parity-based adjustment gave an estimated female HIV prevalence of 15.0%. CONCLUSIONS: HIV prevalence has increased and continues to be higher in non-farmers. The increase is particularly marked in those with no education. ANC surveillance underestimated HIV prevalence in the female population in all but the youngest age group. Although there were differences in sociodemographic factors, a parity-based adjustment gave a reasonable estimate of female HIV prevalence

Use of antenatal clinic surveillance to assess the effect of sexual behavior on HIV prevalence in young women in Karonga district, Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance is the primary source of HIV prevalence estimates in low-resource settings. In younger women, prevalence approximates incidence. Sexual behavior monitoring to explain HIV distribution and trends is seldom attempted in ANC surveys. We explore the use of marital history in ANC surveillance as a proxy for sexual behavior. METHODS: Five ANC clinics in a rural African district participated in surveillance from 1999 to 2004. Unlinked anonymous HIV testing and marital history interviews (including age at first sex and socioeconomic variables) were conducted. Data on women aged <25 years were analyzed. RESULTS: Inferred sexual exposure before marriage and after first marriage increased the adjusted odds of infection with HIV by more than 0.1 for each year of exposure. Increasing years within a first marriage did not increase HIV risk. After adjusting for age, women in more recent birth cohorts were less likely to be infected. CONCLUSIONS: Marital status is useful behavioral information and can be collected in ANC surveys. Exposure in an ongoing first marriage did not increase the odds of infection with HIV in this age group. HIV prevalence decreased over time in young women. ANC surveillance programs should develop proxy sexual behavior questions, particularly in younger women

Earlier menarche is associated with a higher prevalence of Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) in young women in rural Malawi

Remarkably little is known about associations between age at menarche and sexually transmitted infections, although girls with earlier menarche tend to have earlier sexual debut and school drop-out, so an association might be expected. In a population-based survey of &gt;3000 women aged 15–30 in northern Malawi we show that those with earlier menarche had earlier sexual debut, earlier marriage and were more often Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) positive. Compared to those with menarche aged &lt;14, the age-adjusted odds ratios for HSV-2 were 0.89 (95%CI 0.71–1.1), 0.71 (0.57–0.89) and 0.69 (0.54–0.89) for menarche aged 14, 15 and 16+ respectively. This association persisted after adjusting for socio-economic factors, including schooling, and for sexual behaviour. No such association was seen with HIV infection, which is much less common and less uniformly distributed than HSV-2 in this population. The extra vulnerability of girls with earlier menarche needs to be recognised

Earlier menarche is associated with a higher prevalence of Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) in young women in rural Malawi.

Remarkably little is known about associations between age at menarche and sexually transmitted infections, although girls with earlier menarche tend to have earlier sexual debut and school drop-out, so an association might be expected. In a population-based survey of >3000 women aged 15-30 in northern Malawi we show that those with earlier menarche had earlier sexual debut, earlier marriage and were more often Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) positive. Compared to those with menarche aged <14, the age-adjusted odds ratios for HSV-2 were 0.89 (95%CI 0.71-1.1), 0.71 (0.57-0.89) and 0.69 (0.54-0.89) for menarche aged 14, 15 and 16+ respectively. This association persisted after adjusting for socio-economic factors, including schooling, and for sexual behaviour. No such association was seen with HIV infection, which is much less common and less uniformly distributed than HSV-2 in this population. The extra vulnerability of girls with earlier menarche needs to be recognised. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01604.001

Determinants of time to antiretroviral treatment initiation and subsequent mortality on treatment in a cohort in rural northern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: To optimise care HIV patients need to be promptly initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and subsequently retained on treatment. In this study we report on the interval between enrolment and treatment initiation, and investigate subsequent attrition and mortality of patients on ART at a rural clinic in Malawi. METHODS: HIV-positive individuals were recruited to a cohort study between January 2008 and August 2011 at Chilumba Rural Hospital (CRH). Outcomes were ascertained, up to 7 years after enrolment, through follow-up and by linkage to ART registers and the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression were used to examine ART initiation after enrolment, mortality after ART initiation, and attrition after ART initiation. RESULTS: Of the 617 individuals recruited, 523 initiated ART between January 2008 and January 2015. Median time from HIV testing to commencement of ART was 59 days (IQR: 10-330). By a year after enrolment 74.2 % (95 % CI 70.6-77.7 %) had initiated ART. Baseline clinical data at ART initiation and data on attrition was only available for the 438 individuals who initiated ART during active follow-up, between January 2008 and August 2011. Of these individuals, 6 were missing Ministry of Health numbers, leaving 432 included in analyses of attrition and mortality. At 4 years after ART initiation 71.3 % (95 % CI 65.7-76.2 %) of these patients were retained on treatment at the CRH and 17.2 % (95 % CI 13.8-21.4 %) had died. Participants who had a lower CD4 count at enrolment (≤350 cells/μl), enrolled in 2008, or tested for HIV at the CRH rather than through serosurveys, initiated treatment faster. Once on treatment, mortality rates were higher in patients who were HIV tested at the CRH, male, older (≥35 years), missing a CD4 count, or underweight (BMI < 18.5) at ART initiation. CONCLUSIONS: Through linkage to the KHDSS and ART registers it was possible to continue follow-up beyond the end of the initial cohort study. Annual mortality after ART initiation remained considerable over a period of 4 years. Greater access to HIV and CD4 testing alongside initiation at higher CD4 counts, as planned in the test and treat strategy, could reduce this mortality

The importance of recent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in an area with high HIV prevalence: a long-term molecular epidemiological study in Northern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of cases of tuberculosis due to recent infection can be estimated in long-term population-based studies using molecular techniques. Here, we present what is, to our knowledge, the first such study in an area with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. METHODS: All patients with tuberculosis in Karonga District, Malawi, were interviewed. Isolates were genotyped using restriction-fragment-length polymorphism (RFLP) patterns. Strains were considered to be "clustered" if at least 1 other patient had an isolate with an identical pattern. RESULTS: RFLP results were available from 83% of culture-positive patients from late 1995 to early 2003. When strains with <5 bands were excluded, 72% (682/948) were clustered. Maximum clustering was reached using a 4-year window, with an estimated two-thirds of cases due to recent transmission. The proportion clustered decreased with age and varied by area of residence. In older adults, clustering was less common in men and more common in patients who were HIV positive (adjusted odds ratio, 5.1 [95% confidence interval, 2.1-12.6]). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion clustered found in the present study was among the highest in the world, suggesting high rates of recent transmission. The association with HIV infection in older adults may suggest that HIV has a greater impact on disease caused by recent transmission than on that caused by reactivation

Evaluation of a village-informant driven demographic surveillance system in Karonga, Northern Malawi

This paper describes and evaluates the first demographic surveillance system (DSS) in Malawi, covering a rural population of 30,000. Unlike others, the Karonga DSS relies on trained village informants using formatted registers for the primary notification of vital events and migrations. Seven project enumerators subsequently collect detailed data on events notified by the village informants, using stringent identification procedures for households and individuals. Internal movements are traced systematically to augment event registration and data quality. Continuous evaluation of data collection is built into the methods. A re-census conducted after 2 years indicated that the routine system had registered 97% of 1,588 births, 99% of 521 deaths and 92% of 13,168 movements.demographic surveillance system, evaluation, INDEPTH network, Karonga, Malawi, methods, migration, village informant, vital registration