Cash or condition ? evidence from a cash transfer experiment

Conditional Cash Transfer programs are"...the world's favorite new anti-poverty device,"(The Economist, July 29 2010) yet little is known about the specific role of the conditions in driving their success. In this paper, we evaluate a unique cash transfer experiment targeted at adolescent girls in Malawi that featured both a conditional (CCT) and an unconditional (UCT) treatment arm. We find that while there was a modest improvement in school enrollment in the UCT arm in comparison to the control group, this increase is only 43 percent as large as the CCT arm. The CCT arm also outperformed the UCT arm in tests of English reading comprehension. The schooling condition, however, proved costly for important non-schooling outcomes: teenage pregnancy and marriage rates were substantially higher in the CCT than the UCT arm. Our findings suggest that a CCT program for early adolescents that transitions into a UCT for older teenagers would minimize this trade-off by improving schooling outcomes while avoiding the adverse impacts of conditionality on teenage pregnancy and marriage.Education For All,Population Policies,Primary Education,Tertiary Education,Teaching and Learning

The regressive demands of demand-driven development

Despite their explicit focus on reaching the poor, many community driven development (CDD) projects have been found to be only mildly pro-poor in their funding allocations. This paper presents evidence of an explanation that has been overlooked in the CDD literature to date: the requirement that beneficiaries must apply for projects in order to receive support. The authors first examine data on the universe of project applications and funding under Tanzania's flagship CDD program, Tanzania's Social Action Fund, and then use a census of 100 program villages to examine the determinants of both program awareness and program participation at the household level. The data paint a consistent picture at both levels: wealth, access to information, and political capital are important correlates of the ability to navigate the application process successfully. The centrally dictated features of this decentralized program appear to be the most effective mechanisms in directing funds to the poor. The results suggest that unless demand-driven projects can develop ways of soliciting engagement from a broader cross-section of the population, they are unlikely to achieve truly progressive targeting.Rural Poverty Reduction,Housing&Human Habitats,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Services&Transfers to Poor,Regional Economic Development

Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) low temperature Heat Pipe Experiment Package (HEPP) flight results

The Low Temperature Heat Pipe Flight Experiment (HEPP) is a fairly complicated thermal control experiment that was designed to evaluate the performance of two different low temperature ethane heat pipes and a low-temperature (182 K) phase change material. A total of 390 days of continuous operation with an axially grooved aluminum fixed conductance heat pipe and an axially grooved stainless steel heat pipe diode was demonstrated before the data acquisition system's batteries lost power. Each heat pipe had approximately 1 watt applied throughout this period. The HEPP was not able to cool below 188.6 K during the mission. As a result, the preprogrammed transport test sequence which initiates when the PCM temperature drops below 180 K was never exercised, and transport tests with both pipes and the diode reverse mode test could not be run in flight. Also, because the melt temperature of the n-heptane PCM is 182 K, its freeze/thaw behavior could not be tested. Post-flight thermal vacuum tests and thermal analyses have indicated that there was an apparent error in the original thermal analyses that led to this unfortunate result. Post-flight tests have demonstrated that the performance of both heat pipes and the PCM has not changed since being fabricated more than 14 years ago. A summary of HEPP's flight data and post-flight test results are presented

The supply and demand side impacts of credit market information

We utilize a unique pair of experiments to study the precise ways in which reductions in asymmetric information alter the outcome in a credit market. We formulate a general model in which the information set held by lenders, and what borrowers believe their lenders to know, enter separately. This model illustrates that non-experimental identification of the supply- and demand-side information in a market will be confounded. We then present a unique natural experiment, wherein a Guatemalan credit bureau was implemented without the knowledge of borrowers, and subsequently borrowers were given a randomized course describing the existence and workings of the bureau. Using this pairing of randomized and natural experiment, we find that the most powerful effect of new information in the hands of lenders is seen on the extensive margin, in their ability to select better clients. Changes in contracts for ongoing borrowers are muted. When borrower in group loans learn that their lender possesses this new information set, on the other hand, we see strong responses on both the intensive margin (changes in moral hazard) and the extensive margin (groups changing their composition to improve performance). We find some evidence that disadvantaged and female borrowers are disproportionately impacted. Our results indicate that credit bureaus allow for large efficiency gains, that these gains are augmented when borrowers understand the rules of the game, and that economic mobility both upwards and downwards is likely to be increased.

Antisense oligonucleotide-mediated therapeutic strategies for neurodegenerative repeat expansion diseases

Over 40 diseases, primarily affecting the nervous system, are caused by expansion of simple repetitive sequences found throughout the human genome, termed repeat expansion diseases. Expansions can occur in coding and non-coding regions of the genome, leading to several proposed mechanisms of disease, accumulation of either toxic RNA or toxic protein, although gain-of-function mechanisms are suggested causes of pathogenesis. Currently, there is no cure nor effective treatment strategy for any repeat expansion diseases. However, for many of these expansion diseases, splice-switching antisense oligonucleotides (AOs) may offer promise as a therapeutic strategy, as these compounds have already demonstrated efficacy in the treatment of other types of genetic disorders. Antisense oligonucleotides are short synthetic nucleic acid analogues, designed to target specific pre-mRNA sequences by reverse-complementary Watson-Crick binding, thereby modifying processing and/or abundance of the transcript and the sequence of the encoded protein. While there are a number of applications for AOs, this study focuses on their utility for preventing translation of toxic protein isoforms, either by altering the target transcript to encode a truncated protein isoform, or by disrupting the reading frame to downregulate endogenous protein production. The first part of this study focused on ameliorating the toxic polyglutamine tract found in the ataxin-3 protein that causes spinocerebellar ataxia type 3 (SCA3). One of nine known polyglutamine disorders, SCA3 is a clinically heterogeneous disease, primarily exemplified by progressive ataxia impairing the speech, balance and gait of affected individuals. SCA3 is caused by expansion of a glutamine-encoding tract located at the 5′ end of the penultimate exon (exon 10) of the ATXN3 gene transcript, resulting in conformational changes in ataxin-3 and a toxic gain-of-function. Here, we describe highly efficient removal of the toxic polyglutamine tract of ataxin-3 in vitro by phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomers (PMOs). Additionally, these PMOs induced a potentially beneficial downregulation of both the expanded iv and non-expanded protein isoforms. As SCA3 has a typical age of onset in the fourth decade, the observed downregulation could delay age of onset by reducing the amounts of the toxic aggregates. Although we induce downregulation of both isoforms, we believe that the proportion of the truncated protein may be sufficient for overall function of ataxin-3, as some studies have shown ataxin-3 protein to be partially dispensable. Recently, several in vitro and in vivo studies have found that targeted knockdown of transcription elongation factors SUPT4H1, and to a lesser extent SUPT5H, can reduce aggregation of expanded transcripts and protein, and alleviate the disease phenotype in animal models of various expansion diseases. We therefore sought to investigate in vitro, the potential of AO-mediated SUPT4H1 downregulation as a therapeutic strategy. We found that our AOs were able to significantly downregulate SUPT4H1, with minimal changes to the rest of the transcriptome. We then assessed whether this downregulation of SUPT4H1 lead to a reduction in expanded ATXN3 mRNA and/or ATXN3 protein expression, however, unfortunately in the models available and under the current study, no modification to the ATXN3 transcript or protein was observed. This lack of effect may be due to the relatively short, expanded repeat lengths in SCA3 cell lines, and we therefore recommend that future studies assess genes with larger expansions, such as the 100-1000s repeat tracts frequently observed in myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DMPK). In order to create an efficient screening process for finding clinic-ready AOs, it is important to have a detailed understanding of the principles of AO design. We therefore present a comprehensive rationale for efficiently design and in vitro delivery of splice modulating AOs. These approaches and recommendations provide a streamlined methodology for any researcher developing AO therapeutics. The results presented in this thesis indicate that morpholino oligomers will provide superior benefit for the treatment of spinocerebellar ataxia type 3, without the toxic effects that result from other antisense oligomer chemistries. Additionally, AO-induced SUPT4H1 knockdown may yet demonstrate therapeutic v application for a multitude of expansion diseases, pending further investigation into the whole transcriptome effects and in vivo efficacy of this strategy. Lastly, our guidelines for therapeutic AO development should aid other researchers in creating the most efficacious and safe AOs for clinical trials. The work presented in this thesis contributes to the greater body of knowledge about the applications of AOs, as well as the need for reliable and systematic protocols in AO research and interpretation. With ongoing collaboration from our industry partners, Sarepta Therapeutics, there is hope that the work presented here will provide a solid foundation for further research into AO therapeutics for the treatment of neurodegenerative expansion diseases

The short-term impacts of a schooling conditional cash transfer program on the sexual behavior of young women

Recent evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer programs for schooling are effective in raising school enrollment and attendance. However, there is also reason to believe that such programs can affect other outcomes, such as the sexual behavior of their young beneficiaries. Zomba Cash Transfer Program is a randomized, ongoing conditional cash transfer intervention targeting young women in Malawi that provides incentives (in the form of school fees and cash transfers) to current schoolgirls and recent dropouts to stay in or return to school. An average offer of US$10/month conditional on satisfactory school attendance – plus direct payment of secondary school fees – led to significant declines in early marriage, teenage pregnancy, and self-reported sexual activity among program beneficiaries after just one year of program implementation. For program beneficiaries who were out of school at baseline, the probability of getting married and becoming pregnant declined by more than 40 percent and 30 percent, respectively. In addition, the incidence of the onset of sexual activity was 38 percent lower among all program beneficiaries than the control group. Overall, these results suggest that conditional cash transfer programs not only serve as useful tools for improving school attendance, but may also reduce sexual activity, teen pregnancy, and early marriage.Population Policies,Adolescent Health,Education For All,Primary Education,Disease Control&Prevention

Competition and Microfinance

Competition between microfinance institutions (MFIs) in developing countries has increased dramatically in the last decade. We model the behavior of non-profit lenders, and show that their non-standard, client-maximizing objectives cause them to cross-subsidize within their pool of borrowers. Thus when competition eliminates rents on profitable borrowers, it is likely to yield a new equilibrium in which poor borrowers are worse off. As competition exacerbates asymmetric information problems over borrower indebtedness, the most impatient borrowers begin to obtain multiple loans, creating a negative externality that leads to less favorable equilibrium loan contracts for all borrowers

Skills and Liquidity Barriers to Youth Employment: Medium-term Evidence from a Cash Benchmarking Experiment in Rwanda

We present results of an experiment benchmarking a workforce training program against cash transfers for underemployed young adults in Rwanda. 3.5 years after treatment, the training program enhances productive time use and asset investment, while the cash transfers drive productive assets, livestock values, savings, and subjective well-being. Both interventions have powerful effects on entrepreneurship. But while labor, sales, and profits all go up, the implied wage rate in these businesses is low. Our results suggest that credit is a major barrier to self-employment, but deeper reforms may be required to enable entrepreneurship to provide a transformative pathway out of poverty

What Do Credit Bureaus Do? Understanding Screening, Incentive, and Credit Expansion Effects

We develop a theoretical model that explains the primary empirical results emanating from a multi-year study of the impact of credit bureaus in Guatemala. Our theory derives “screening” and “incentive” effects of credit information systems that mitigate problems of adverse selection and moral hazard in credit markets. We also derive a “credit expansion” effect in which borrowers with clean credit records receive larger and more favorable equilibrium loan contracts. The credit expansion effect increases default rates, partially counteracting the first two effects. We create a simulation model that allows us to examine the relative magnitudes of these effects in relation to the order in which they occur

Using Household Grants to Benchmark the Cost Effectiveness of a USAID Workforce Readiness Program

We use a randomized experiment to compare a workforce training program to cash transfers in Rwanda. Conducted in a sample of poor and underemployed youth, this study measures the impact of the training program not only relative to a control group but relative to the counterfactual of simply disbursing the cost of the program directly to beneficiaries. While the training program was successful in improving a number of core outcomes (productive hours, assets, savings, and subjective well-being), cost-equivalent cash transfers move all these outcomes as well as consumption, income, and wealth. In the head-to-head costing comparison cash proves superior across a number of economic outcomes, while training outperforms cash only in the production of business knowledge. We find little evidence of complementarity between human and physical capital interventions, and no signs of heterogeneity or spillover effects