45 research outputs found

    Understanding the coevolution of mask wearing and epidemics:A network perspective

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    Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as mask wearing can be effective in mitigating the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, understanding the behavioral dynamics of NPIs is critical for characterizing the dynamics of disease spread. Nevertheless, standard infection models tend to focus only on disease states, overlooking the dynamics of "beneficial contagions," e.g., compliance with NPIs. In this work, we investigate the concurrent spread of disease and mask-wearing behavior over multiplex networks. Our proposed framework captures both the competing and complementary relationships between the dueling contagion processes. Further, the model accounts for various behavioral mechanisms that influence mask wearing, such as peer pressure and fear of infection. Our results reveal that under the coupled disease-behavior dynamics, the attack rate of a disease-as a function of transition probability-exhibits a critical transition. Specifically, as the transmission probability exceeds a critical threshold, the attack rate decreases abruptly due to sustained mask-wearing responses. We empirically explore the causes of the critical transition and demonstrate the robustness of the observed phenomena. Our results highlight that without proper enforcement of NPIs, reductions in the disease transmission probability via other interventions may not be sufficient to reduce the final epidemic size.</p

    The origins and spread of domestic horses from the Western Eurasian steppes

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    Analysis of 273 ancient horse genomes reveals that modern domestic horses originated in the Western Eurasian steppes, especially the lower Volga-Don region.Domestication of horses fundamentally transformed long-range mobility and warfare(1). However, modern domesticated breeds do not descend from the earliest domestic horse lineage associated with archaeological evidence of bridling, milking and corralling(2-4) at Botai, Central Asia around 3500 bc(3). Other longstanding candidate regions for horse domestication, such as Iberia(5) and Anatolia(6), have also recently been challenged. Thus, the genetic, geographic and temporal origins of modern domestic horses have remained unknown. Here we pinpoint the Western Eurasian steppes, especially the lower Volga-Don region, as the homeland of modern domestic horses. Furthermore, we map the population changes accompanying domestication from 273 ancient horse genomes. This reveals that modern domestic horses ultimately replaced almost all other local populations as they expanded rapidly across Eurasia from about 2000 bc, synchronously with equestrian material culture, including Sintashta spoke-wheeled chariots. We find that equestrianism involved strong selection for critical locomotor and behavioural adaptations at the GSDMC and ZFPM1 genes. Our results reject the commonly held association(7) between horseback riding and the massive expansion of Yamnaya steppe pastoralists into Europe around 3000 bc(8,9) driving the spread of Indo-European languages(10). This contrasts with the scenario in Asia where Indo-Iranian languages, chariots and horses spread together, following the early second millennium bc Sintashta culture(11,12).Descriptive and Comparative Linguistic

    Co-expression in Helicobacter pylori of cagA and non-opsonic neutrophil activation enhances the association with peptic ulcer disease

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    Aims—To investigate the association of cagA positivity and non-opsonic neutrophil activation capacity in wild-type Helicobacter pylori strains with peptic ulcer disease or chronic gastritis only. Methods—Helicobacter pylori were isolated from antral biopsies of 53 consecutive patients with chronic antral gastritis, of whom 24 had peptic ulcer disease endoscopically. The presence of cagA, a marker for the cag pathogenicity island, was determined by polymerase chain reaction with specific oligonucleotide primers, and non-opsonic neutrophil activation capacity by luminol enhanced chemiluminescence. Results—The cagA gene was present in 39 of 53 (73.6%) strains, 20 of which (83.3%) were from the 24 patients with peptic ulcer disease and 19 (65.5%) from the 29 patients with chronic gastritis only. Non-opsonic neutrophil activation was found in 29 (54.7%) strains, 16 of which (66.7%) were from patients with peptic ulcer disease, and 13 (44.8%) from those with chronic gastritis. Non-opsonic neutrophil activation was found more frequently in cagA(+) than cagA(-) strains (59% v 42.9%). Whereas four of the 14 cagA(-) strains and eight of the 24 non-opsonic neutrophil activation negative strains were from patients with peptic ulcer disease, only two of 24 (8.3%) peptic ulcer disease strains expressed neither cagA nor non-opsonic neutrophil activation. The cagA gene and non-opsonic neutrophil activation capacity were co-expressed in 14 of 24 (58.3%) strains from patients with peptic ulcer disease, and in nine of 29 (31%) strains from individuals with chronic gastritis. Conclusions—Positivity for cagA and non-opsonic neutrophil activation occur independently in wild-type H pylori strains. However, co-expression of the two markers enhanced the prediction of peptic ulcer disease. Key Words: Helicobacter pylori • neutrophil • cag
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