A Predictive Model of Nuclear Power Plant Crew Decision-Making and Performance in a Dynamic Simulation Environment

The safe operation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires close coordination between the human operators and plant systems. In order to maintain an adequate level of safety following an accident or other off-normal event, the operators often are called upon to perform complex tasks during dynamic situations with incomplete information. The safety of such complex systems can be greatly improved if the conditions that could lead operators to make poor decisions and commit erroneous actions during these situations can be predicted and mitigated. The primary goal of this research project was the development and validation of a cognitive model capable of simulating nuclear plant operator decision-making during accident conditions. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methods can improve the prediction of human error events by providing rich contextual information and an explicit consideration of feedback arising from man-machine interactions. The Accident Dynamics Simulator paired with the Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (ADS-IDAC) shows promise for predicting situational contexts that might lead to human error events, particularly knowledge driven errors of commission. ADS-IDAC generates a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) by applying simple branching rules that reflect variations in crew responses to plant events and system status changes. Branches can be generated to simulate slow or fast procedure execution speed, skipping of procedure steps, reliance on memorized information, activation of mental beliefs, variations in control inputs, and equipment failures. Complex operator mental models of plant behavior that guide crew actions can be represented within the ADS-IDAC mental belief framework and used to identify situational contexts that may lead to human error events. This research increased the capabilities of ADS-IDAC in several key areas. The ADS-IDAC computer code was improved to support additional branching events and provide a better representation of the IDAC cognitive model. An operator decision-making engine capable of responding to dynamic changes in situational context was implemented. The IDAC human performance model was fully integrated with a detailed nuclear plant model in order to realistically simulate plant accident scenarios. Finally, the improved ADS-IDAC model was calibrated, validated, and updated using actual nuclear plant crew performance data. This research led to the following general conclusions: (1) A relatively small number of branching rules are capable of efficiently capturing a wide spectrum of crew-to-crew variabilities. (2) Compared to traditional static risk assessment methods, ADS-IDAC can provide a more realistic and integrated assessment of human error events by directly determining the effect of operator behaviors on plant thermal hydraulic parameters. (3) The ADS-IDAC approach provides an efficient framework for capturing actual operator performance data such as timing of operator actions, mental models, and decision-making activities

Truth or Consequences? Engaging the “Truth” of Evolution

Paleontologist Kevin Padian reviews "Why Evolution Is True," which presents the vast, varied, and unquestionably robust evidence that shows how evolution makes sense of biology

The interaction between supportive and unsupportive manager behaviors on employee work attitudes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to use social exchange theory (SET) to examine a model where supportive and unsupportive manager behaviors (SMB and UMB) interact to predict employees’ engagement, job satisfaction and turnover intention. Design/methodology/approach – A cross-sectional online survey collected data from 252 UK-based employees of a global data management company. Findings – Factor analysis confirmed manager behaviors to consist of two constructs: supportive and unsupportive behaviors. Structural equation modeling indicated SMB predicted job satisfaction and turnover intentions, but not engagement. Job satisfaction, but not engagement, mediated the SMB-turnover intention relationship. UMB only predicted job dissatisfaction. Neither job satisfaction nor engagement mediated the UMB-turnover intention relationship. UMB undermined the positive relationship between SMB and turnover intention. Practical implications – The behaviors assessed can be integrated into various stages of a manager’s development process to serve as guidelines of good practice. Crucially, findings suggest managers can exhibit both supportive and unsupportive behaviors, and that consistency in behaviors is important. The study also provides evidence that supportive managers can help reduce turnover intention through job satisfaction. Originality/value – SET was used as a framework for SMB, UMB and engagement. To the authors’ knowledge this is the first study to examine the interaction between SMB and UMB

Identification of Mendel's White Flower Character

BACKGROUND: The genetic regulation of flower color has been widely studied, notably as a character used by Mendel and his predecessors in the study of inheritance in pea. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used the genome sequence of model legumes, together with their known synteny to the pea genome to identify candidate genes for the A and A2 loci in pea. We then used a combination of genetic mapping, fast neutron mutant analysis, allelic diversity, transcript quantification and transient expression complementation studies to confirm the identity of the candidates. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We have identified the pea genes A and A2. A is the factor determining anthocyanin pigmentation in pea that was used by Gregor Mendel 150 years ago in his study of inheritance. The A gene encodes a bHLH transcription factor. The white flowered mutant allele most likely used by Mendel is a simple G to A transition in a splice donor site that leads to a mis-spliced mRNA with a premature stop codon, and we have identified a second rare mutant allele. The A2 gene encodes a WD40 protein that is part of an evolutionarily conserved regulatory complex

Search for gravitational waves associated with the InterPlanetary Network short gamma ray bursts

We outline the scientific motivation behind a search for gravitational waves associated with short gamma ray bursts detected by the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) during LIGO's fifth science run and Virgo's first science run. The IPN localisation of short gamma ray bursts is limited to extended error boxes of different shapes and sizes and a search on these error boxes poses a series of challenges for data analysis. We will discuss these challenges and outline the methods to optimise the search over these error boxes.Comment: Methods paper; Proceedings for Eduardo Amaldi 9 Conference on Gravitational Waves, July 2011, Cardiff, U

Absence of Positive Selection on Centromeric Histones in Tetrahymena Suggests Unsuppressed Centromere-Drive in Lineages Lacking Male Meiosis

Centromere-drive is a process where centromeres compete for transmission through asymmetric "female" meiosis for inclusion into the oocyte. In symmetric "male" meiosis, all meiotic products form viable germ cells. Therefore, the primary incentive for centromere-drive, a potential transmission bias, is believed to be missing from male meiosis. In this article, we consider whether male meiosis also bears the primary cost of centromere-drive. Because different taxa carry out different combinations of meiotic programs (symmetric + asymmetric, symmetric only, asymmetric only), it is possible to consider the evolutionary consequences of centromere-drive in the context of these differing systems. Groups with both types of meiosis have large, rapidly evolving centromeric regions, and their centromeric histones (CenH3s) have been shown to evolve under positive selection, suggesting roles as suppressors of centromere-drive. In contrast, taxa with only symmetric male meiosis have shown no evidence of positive selection in their centromeric histones. In this article, we present the first evolutionary analysis of centromeric histones in ciliated protozoans, a group that only undergoes asymmetric "female" meiosis. We find no evidence of positive selection acting on CNA1, the CenH3 of Tetrahymena species. Cytological observations of a panel of Tetrahymena species are consistent with dynamic karyotype evolution in this lineage. Our findings suggest that defects in male meiosis, and not mitosis or female meiosis, are the primary selective force behind centromere-drive suppression. Our study raises the possibility that taxa like ciliates, with only female meiosis, may therefore undergo unsuppressed centromere drive

The Plant Pathogen Phytophthora andina Emerged via Hybridization of an Unknown Phytophthora Species and the Irish Potato Famine Pathogen, P. infestans

Emerging plant pathogens have largely been a consequence of the movement of pathogens to new geographic regions. Another documented mechanism for the emergence of plant pathogens is hybridization between individuals of different species or subspecies, which may allow rapid evolution and adaptation to new hosts or environments. Hybrid plant pathogens have traditionally been difficult to detect or confirm, but the increasing ease of cloning and sequencing PCR products now makes the identification of species that consistently have genes or alleles with phylogenetically divergent origins relatively straightforward. We investigated the genetic origin of Phytophthora andina, an increasingly common pathogen of Andean crops Solanum betaceum, S. muricatum, S. quitoense, and several wild Solanum spp. It has been hypothesized that P. andina is a hybrid between the potato late blight pathogen P. infestans and another Phytophthora species. We tested this hypothesis by cloning four nuclear loci to obtain haplotypes and using these loci to infer the phylogenetic relationships of P. andina to P. infestans and other related species. Sequencing of cloned PCR products in every case revealed two distinct haplotypes for each locus in P. andina, such that each isolate had one allele derived from a P. infestans parent and a second divergent allele derived from an unknown species that is closely related but distinct from P. infestans, P. mirabilis, and P. ipomoeae. To the best of our knowledge, the unknown parent has not yet been collected. We also observed sequence polymorphism among P. andina isolates at three of the four loci, many of which segregate between previously described P. andina clonal lineages. These results provide strong support that P. andina emerged via hybridization between P. infestans and another unknown Phytophthora species also belonging to Phytophthora clade 1c

Accelerated Evolution of the Prdm9 Speciation Gene across Diverse Metazoan Taxa

The onset of prezygotic and postzygotic barriers to gene flow between populations is a hallmark of speciation. One of the earliest postzygotic isolating barriers to arise between incipient species is the sterility of the heterogametic sex in interspecies' hybrids. Four genes that underlie hybrid sterility have been identified in animals: Odysseus, JYalpha, and Overdrive in Drosophila and Prdm9 (Meisetz) in mice. Mouse Prdm9 encodes a protein with a KRAB motif, a histone methyltransferase domain and several zinc fingers. The difference of a single zinc finger distinguishes Prdm9 alleles that cause hybrid sterility from those that do not. We find that concerted evolution and positive selection have rapidly altered the number and sequence of Prdm9 zinc fingers across 13 rodent genomes. The patterns of positive selection in Prdm9 zinc fingers imply that rapid evolution has acted on the interface between the Prdm9 protein and the DNA sequences to which it binds. Similar patterns are apparent for Prdm9 zinc fingers for diverse metazoans, including primates. Indeed, allelic variation at the DNA–binding positions of human PRDM9 zinc fingers show significant association with decreased risk of infertility. Prdm9 thus plays a role in determining male sterility both between species (mouse) and within species (human). The recurrent episodes of positive selection acting on Prdm9 suggest that the DNA sequences to which it binds must also be evolving rapidly. Our findings do not identify the nature of the underlying DNA sequences, but argue against the proposed role of Prdm9 as an essential transcription factor in mouse meiosis. We propose a hypothetical model in which incompatibilities between Prdm9-binding specificity and satellite DNAs provide the molecular basis for Prdm9-mediated hybrid sterility. We suggest that Prdm9 should be investigated as a candidate gene in other instances of hybrid sterility in metazoans

A Cryogenic Silicon Interferometer for Gravitational-wave Detection

The detection of gravitational waves from compact binary mergers by LIGO has opened the era of gravitational wave astronomy, revealing a previously hidden side of the cosmos. To maximize the reach of the existing LIGO observatory facilities, we have designed a new instrument able to detect gravitational waves at distances 5 times further away than possible with Advanced LIGO, or at greater than 100 times the event rate. Observations with this new instrument will make possible dramatic steps toward understanding the physics of the nearby Universe, as well as observing the Universe out to cosmological distances by the detection of binary black hole coalescences. This article presents the instrument design and a quantitative analysis of the anticipated noise floor

A Cryogenic Silicon Interferometer for Gravitational-wave Detection

The detection of gravitational waves from compact binary mergers by LIGO has opened the era of gravitational wave astronomy, revealing a previously hidden side of the cosmos. To maximize the reach of the existing LIGO observatory facilities, we have designed a new instrument that will have 5 times the range of Advanced LIGO, or greater than 100 times the event rate. Observations with this new instrument will make possible dramatic steps toward understanding the physics of the nearby universe, as well as observing the universe out to cosmological distances by the detection of binary black hole coalescences. This article presents the instrument design and a quantitative analysis of the anticipated noise floor