Using electric network theory to model the spread of oak processionary moth, Thaumetopoea processionea, in urban woodland patches

Context: Habitat fragmentation is increasing as a result of anthropogenic activities, especially in urban areas. Dispersal through fragmented habitats is key for species to spread, persist in metapopulations and shift range in response to climate change. However, high habitat connectivity may also hasten the spread of invasive species. Objective: To develop a model of spread in fragmented landscapes and apply it to the spread of an invasive insect in urban woodland. Methods: We applied a patch-based model, based on electric network theory, to model the current and predicted future spread of oak processionary moth (OPM: Thaumetopoea processionea) from its source in west London. We compared the pattern of ‘effective distance’ from the source (i.e. the patch ‘voltage’ in the model) with the observed spread of the moth from 2006 to 2012. Results: We showed that ‘effective distance’ fitted current spread of OPM. Patches varied considerably in their ‘current’ and ‘power’ (metrics from the model), which is an indication of their importance in the future spread of OPM. Conclusions: Patches identified as ‘important’ are potential ‘pinch points’ and regions of high ‘flow’, where resources for detection and management will be most cost-effectively deployed. However, data on OPM dispersal and the distribution of oak trees limited the strength of our conclusions, so should be priorities for further data collection. This application of electric network theory can be used to inform landscape-scale conservation initiatives both to reduce the spread of invasives and to facilitate large-scale species’ range shifts in response to climate change

SB44-17/18 Resolution Regarding ASUM Student-Paid Positions

This resolution passed 19Y-4N-2A on a roll call vote during the April 25, 2018 meeting of the Associated Students of the University of Montana (ASUM)

Effect of Gingival Margin Design on Retention of Thermoformed Orthodontic Aligners

Purpose: The aim of this study was evaluate the effect of gingival margin design (scalloped vs. straight cut at gingival zenith vs. straight cut 2mm above gingival zenith) on the retention of thermoformed aligners. Retention of aligners is a critical requirement for efficient tooth movement. Methods: Two thermoform aligner materials were used, Invisacryl A and Invisacryl C, in 0.040 mil (1mm) thickness. Six aligner designs were fabricated for each of the two aligner materials (12 total aligner designs). Aligner designs are scalloped, straight cut at gingival zenith (0mm), and straight cut 2mm above gingival zenith on a model with attachments. These designs were tested with and without attachments. Three aligners were made for each of the 12 aligner designs for a total of 36 aligners. A Universal Testing Machine was used to pull each aligner off of a Kilgore dentoform in a direction perpendicular to the occlusal plane. The force needed to pull each aligner off of the dentoform was recorded as the retentive force of the aligner. A one way ANOVA with a Post Hoc Bonferroni test was completed on the average pull off force for each of the 12 aligner groups. Results: Of the 66 comparisons made 57 had significant differences when comparing each aligner group\u27s average retentive pull off force. The highest retentive force was Invisacryl A, 2mm straight margin, with attachments while the lowest retentive force was Invisacryl C, scalloped with attachments. Conclusions: Invisacryl A material showed increased retention when compared to Invisacryl C material of the same aligner margin and attachment design. Straight line gingival margins (0 and 2mm) showed and increased retention when compared to scalloped margins for Invisacryl A and Invisacryl C with attachments. Aligners with attachments and scalloped margins had significantly less retention than aligners of the same material type with scalloped margins and no attachments. The 2mm straight gingival margin design had the highest retentive forces when compared to aligners of the same material and attachment type

Syntheses of Sterically Shielded Stable Carbenes of the 1,2,4-Triazole Series and their Corresponding Palladium Complexes: Efficient Catalysts for Chloroarene Hydrodechlorination

The new sterically shielded 1,3,4-trisubstituted 1,2,4-triazol-5-ylidenes 8b-d were synthesized by a three step method starting from 2-phenyl-1,3,4-oxadiazole. The syntheses of palladium complexes 9a-d and 10a-d (including the sterically shielded derivatives 9c,d and 10a-d) were carried out via the reactions of the stable carbenes 8a-d with palladium halogenide salts in THF or toluene solution. Complexes 9c,d and 10a-d were found to be excellent catalysts for the reductive dechlorination (hydrodechlorination) of p-dichlorobenzene. The structures of 8c, 9a,b, and 10a were determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction.Ukrainian Academy of Sciences 118Robert A. Welch Foundation F-0003Chemistr

Factors influencing child protection professionals' decision-making and multidisciplinary collaboration in suspected abusive head trauma cases: a qualitative study

Clinicians face unique challenges when assessing suspected child abuse cases. The majority of the literature exploring diagnostic decision-making in this field is anecdotal or survey-based and there is a lack of studies exploring decision-making around suspected abusive head trauma (AHT). We aimed to determine factors influencing decision-making and multidisciplinary collaboration in suspected AHT cases, amongst 56 child protection professionals. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with clinicians (25), child protection social workers (10), legal practitioners (9, including 4 judges), police officers (8), and pathologists (4), purposively sampled across southwest United Kingdom. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and imported into NVivo for thematic analysis (38% double-coded). We identified six themes influencing decision-making: ‘professional’, ‘medical’, ‘circumstantial’, ‘family’, ‘psychological’ and ‘legal’ factors. Participants diagnose AHT based on clinical features, the history, and the social history, after excluding potential differential diagnoses. Participants find these cases emotionally challenging but are aware of potential biases in their evaluations and strive to overcome these. Barriers to decision-making include lack of experience, uncertainty, the impact on the family, the pressure of making the correct diagnosis, and disagreements between professionals. Legal barriers include alternative theories of causation proposed in court. Facilitators include support from colleagues and knowledge of the evidence-base. Participants’ experiences with multidisciplinary collaboration are generally positive, however child protection social workers and police officers are heavily reliant on clinicians to guide their decision-making, suggesting the need for training on the medical aspects of physical abuse for these professionals and multidisciplinary training that provides knowledge about the roles of each agency

Methodological standards for the development and evaluation of clinical prediction rules: A review of the literature

Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) that predict the absolute risk of a clinical condition or future outcome for individual patients are abundant in the medical literature, however systematic reviews have demonstrated shortcomings in the methodological quality and reporting of prediction studies. To maximize the potential and clinical usefulness of CPRs, they must be rigorously developed and validated, and their impact on clinical practice and patient outcomes must be evaluated. This review aims to present a comprehensive overview of the stages involved in the development, validation and evaluation of CPRs, and to describe in detail the methodological standards required at each stage, illustrated with examples where appropriate. Important features of the study design, statistical analysis, modelling strategy, data collection, performance assessment, CPR presentation, and reporting are discussed, in addition to other, often overlooked aspects such as the acceptability, cost-effectiveness and longer-term implementation of CPRs, and their comparison with clinical judgment. Although the development and evaluation of a robust, clinically useful CPR is anything but straightforward, adherence to the plethora of methodological standards, recommendations and frameworks at each stage will assist in the development of a rigorous CPR that has the potential to contribute usefully to clinical practice and decision-making and have a positive impact on patient car

Acceptability of the Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) clinical prediction tool: A qualitative study with child protection professionals

The validated Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) tool estimates the probability of abusive head trauma (AHT) based on combinations of six clinical features: head/neck bruising; apnea; seizures; rib/long-bone fractures; retinal hemorrhages. We aimed to determine the acceptability of PredAHT to child protection professionals. We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with 56 participants: clinicians (25), child protection social workers (10), legal practitioners (9, including 4 judges), police officers (8), and pathologists (4), purposively sampled across southwest United Kingdom. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and imported into NVivo for thematic analysis (38% double-coded). We explored participants’ evaluations of PredAHT, their opinions about the optimal way to present the calculated probabilities, and their interpretation of probabilities in the context of suspected AHT. Clinicians, child protection social workers and police thought PredAHT would be beneficial as an objective adjunct to their professional judgment, to give them greater confidence in their decisions. Lawyers and pathologists appreciated its value for prompting multidisciplinary investigations, but were uncertain of its usefulness in court. Perceived disadvantages included: possible over-reliance and false reassurance from a low score. Interpretations regarding which percentages equate to ‘low’, ‘medium’ or ‘high’ likelihood of AHT varied; participants preferred a precise % probability over these general terms. Participants would use PredAHT with provisos: if they received multi-agency training to define accepted risk thresholds for consistent interpretation; with knowledge of its development; if it was accepted by colleagues. PredAHT may therefore increase professionals’ confidence in their decision-making when investigating suspected AHT, but may be of less value in court

Potential impact of the validated Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) clinical prediction tool: A clinical vignette study

Background The validated Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) tool estimates the probability of abusive head trauma (AHT) in children <3 years old with intracranial injury. Objective To explore the impact of PredAHT on clinicians’ AHT probability estimates and child protection (CP) actions, and assess inter-rater agreement between their estimates and between their CP actions, before and after PredAHT. Participants and Setting Twenty-nine clinicians from different specialties, at teaching and community hospitals. Methods Clinicians estimated the probability of AHT and indicated their CP actions in six clinical vignettes. One vignette described a child with AHT, another described a child with non-AHT, and four represented “gray” cases, where the diagnosis was uncertain. Clinicians calculated the PredAHT score, and reported whether this altered their estimate/actions. The ‘think-aloud’ method was used to capture the reasoning behind their responses. Analysis included linear modelling, linear mixed-effects modelling, chi-square tests, Fisher’s exact tests, intraclass correlation, Gwet’s AC1 coefficient and thematic analysis. Results Overall, PredAHT significantly influenced clinicians’ probability estimates in all vignettes (p < 0.001), although the impact on individual clinicians varied. However, the influence of PredAHT on clinicians’ CP actions was limited; after using PredAHT, 9/29 clinicians changed their CP actions in only 11/174 instances. Clinicians’ AHT probability estimates and CP actions varied somewhat both before and after PredAHT. Qualitative data suggested that PredAHT may increase clinicians’ confidence in their decisions when considered alongside other associated clinical, historical and social factors. Conclusions PredAHT significantly influenced clinicians’ AHT probability estimates, but had minimal impact on their CP actions