Predicting electromagnetic counterparts using low-latency gravitational-wave data products

Searches for gravitational-wave counterparts have been going in earnest since GW170817 and the discovery of AT2017gfo. Since then, the lack of detection of other optical counterparts connected to binary neutron star or black hole–neutron star candidates has highlighted the need for a better discrimination criterion to support this effort. At the moment, low-latency gravitational-wave alerts contain preliminary information about binary properties and hence whether a detected binary might have an electromagnetic counterpart. The current alert method is a classifier that estimates the probability that there is a debris disc outside the black hole created during the merger as well as the probability of a signal being a binary neutron star, a black hole–neutron star, a binary black hole, or of terrestrial origin. In this work, we expand upon this approach to both predict the ejecta properties and provide contours of potential light curves for these events, in order to improve the follow-up observation strategy. The various sources of uncertainty are discussed, and we conclude that our ignorance about the ejecta composition and the insufficient constraint of the binary parameters by low-latency pipelines represent the main limitations. To validate the method, we test our approach on real events from the second and third Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)–Virgo observing runs

Search of the Orion spur for continuous gravitational waves using a loosely coherent algorithm on data from LIGO interferometers

We report results of a wideband search for periodic gravitational waves from isolated neutron stars within the Orion spur towards both the inner and outer regions of our Galaxy. As gravitational waves interact very weakly with matter, the search is unimpeded by dust and concentrations of stars. One search disk (A) is 6.87° in diameter and centered on 20h10m54.71s+33°33′25.29′′, and the other (B) is 7.45° in diameter and centered on 8h35m20.61s−46°49′25.151′′. We explored the frequency range of 50–1500 Hz and frequency derivative from 0 to −5×10−9  Hz/s. A multistage, loosely coherent search program allowed probing more deeply than before in these two regions, while increasing coherence length with every stage. Rigorous follow-up parameters have winnowed the initial coincidence set to only 70 candidates, to be examined manually. None of those 70 candidates proved to be consistent with an isolated gravitational-wave emitter, and 95% confidence level upper limits were placed on continuous-wave strain amplitudes. Near 169 Hz we achieve our lowest 95% C.L. upper limit on the worst-case linearly polarized strain amplitude h0 of 6.3×10−25, while at the high end of our frequency range we achieve a worst-case upper limit of 3.4×10−24 for all polarizations and sky location

All-sky search for long-duration gravitational wave transients with initial LIGO

We present the results of a search for long-duration gravitational wave transients in two sets of data collected by the LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston detectors between November 5, 2005 and September 30, 2007, and July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010, with a total observational time of 283.0 days and 132.9 days, respectively. The search targets gravitational wave transients of duration 10–500 s in a frequency band of 40–1000 Hz, with minimal assumptions about the signal waveform, polarization, source direction, or time of occurrence. All candidate triggers were consistent with the expected background; as a result we set 90% confidence upper limits on the rate of long-duration gravitational wave transients for different types of gravitational wave signals. For signals from black hole accretion disk instabilities, we set upper limits on the source rate density between 3.4×10−5 and 9.4×10−4  Mpc−3 yr−1 at 90% confidence. These are the first results from an all-sky search for unmodeled long-duration transient gravitational wave

Updated observing scenarios and multi-messenger implications for the International Gravitational-wave Network's O4 and O5

Advanced LIGO and Virgo's third observing run brought another binary neutron star merger (BNS) and the first neutron-star black-hole (NSBH) mergers. While no confirmed kilonovae (KNe) was identified in conjunction with any of these events, continued improvements of analyses surrounding GW170817 allow us to project constraints on the Hubble Constant ($H_0$), the Galactic enrichment from $r$-process nucleosynthesis, and ultra-dense matter possible from forthcoming events. Here, we describe the expected constraints based on the latest expected event rates from the international gravitational-wave network (IGWN) and analyses of GW170817. We show the expected detection rate of gravitational waves and their counterparts, as well as how sensitive potential constraints are to the observed numbers of counterparts. We intend this analysis as support for the community when creating scientifically-driven electromagnetic follow-up proposals. During the next observing run O4, we predict an annual detection rate of electromagnetic counterparts from BNS of $0.43^{+0.58}_{-0.26}$ ($1.97^{+2.68}_{-1.2}$) for the Zwicky Transient Facility (Rubin Observatory)

Plantar plate pathology is associated with erosive disease in the painful forefoot of patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Background: Disease-related foot pathology is recognised to have a significant impact on mobility and functional capacity in the majority of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The forefoot is widely affected and the metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints are the most common site of symptoms. The plantar plates are the fibrocartilaginous distal attachments of the plantar fascia inserting into the five proximal phalanges. Together with the transverse metatarsal ligament they prevent splaying of the forefoot and subluxation of the MTP joints. Damage to the plantar plates is a plausible mechanism therefore, through which the forefoot presentation, commonly described as ‘walking on pebbles’, may develop in patients with RA. The aims of this study were to investigate the relationship between plantar plate pathology and clinical, biomechanical and plain radiography findings in the painful forefoot of patients with RA. Secondly, to compare plantar plate pathology at the symptomatic lesser (2nd-5th) MTP joints in patients with RA, with a group of healthy age and gender matched control subjects without foot pain. Methods: In 41 patients with RA and ten control subjects the forefoot was imaged using 3T MRI. Intermediate weighted fat-suppressed sagittal and short axis sequences were acquired through the lesser MTP joints. Images were read prospectively by two radiologists and consensus reached. Plantar plate pathology in patients with RA was compared with control subjects. Multivariable multilevel modelling was used to assess the association between plantar plate pathology and the clinical, biomechanical and plain radiography findings. Results: There were significant differences between control subjects and patients with RA in the presence of plantar plate pathology at the lesser MTP joints. No substantive or statistically significant associations were found between plantar plate pathology and clinical and biomechanical findings. The presence of plantar plate pathology was independently associated with an increase in the odds of erosion (OR = 52.50 [8.38–326.97], p < 0.001). Conclusion: The distribution of plantar plate pathology at the lesser MTP joints in healthy control subjects differs to that seen in patients with RA who have the consequence of inflammatory disease in the forefoot. Longitudinal follow-up is required to determine the mechanism and presentation of plantar plate pathology in the painful forefoot of patients with RA

The Fast, Luminous Ultraviolet Transient AT2018cow: Extreme Supernova, or Disruption of a Star by an Intermediate-Mass Black Hole?

Wide-field optical surveys have begun to uncover large samples of fast (t_(rise) ≲ 5 d), luminous (M_(peak) 10 days. The spectrum remains extremely hot throughout its evolution, and the photospheric radius contracts with time (receding below R < 10^(14) cm after 1 month). This behaviour does not match that of any known supernova, although a relativistic jet within a fallback supernova could explain some of the observed features. Alternatively, the transient could originate from the disruption of a star by an intermediate-mass black hole, although this would require long-lasting emission of highly super-Eddington thermal radiation. In either case, AT 2018cow suggests that the population of fast luminous transients represents a new class of astrophysical event. Intensive follow-up of this event in its late phases, and of any future events found at comparable distance, will be essential to better constrain their origins

Transit Photometry as an Exoplanet Discovery Method

Photometry with the transit method has arguably been the most successful exoplanet discovery method to date. A short overview about the rise of that method to its present status is given. The method's strength is the rich set of parameters that can be obtained from transiting planets, in particular in combination with radial velocity observations; the basic principles of these parameters are given. The method has however also drawbacks, which are the low probability that transits appear in randomly oriented planet systems, and the presence of astrophysical phenomena that may mimic transits and give rise to false detection positives. In the second part we outline the main factors that determine the design of transit surveys, such as the size of the survey sample, the temporal coverage, the detection precision, the sample brightness and the methods to extract transit events from observed light curves. Lastly, an overview over past, current and future transit surveys is given. For these surveys we indicate their basic instrument configuration and their planet catch, including the ranges of planet sizes and stellar magnitudes that were encountered. Current and future transit detection experiments concentrate primarily on bright or special targets, and we expect that the transit method remains a principal driver of exoplanet science, through new discoveries to be made and through the development of new generations of instruments.Comment: Review chapte

Multi-Messenger Astronomy with Extremely Large Telescopes

The field of time-domain astrophysics has entered the era of Multi-messenger Astronomy (MMA). One key science goal for the next decade (and beyond) will be to characterize gravitational wave (GW) and neutrino sources using the next generation of Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs). These studies will have a broad impact across astrophysics, informing our knowledge of the production and enrichment history of the heaviest chemical elements, constrain the dense matter equation of state, provide independent constraints on cosmology, increase our understanding of particle acceleration in shocks and jets, and study the lives of black holes in the universe. Future GW detectors will greatly improve their sensitivity during the coming decade, as will near-infrared telescopes capable of independently finding kilonovae from neutron star mergers. However, the electromagnetic counterparts to high-frequency (LIGO/Virgo band) GW sources will be distant and faint and thus demand ELT capabilities for characterization. ELTs will be important and necessary contributors to an advanced and complete multi-messenger network.Comment: White paper submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Surve