Forecasting the CATS benchmark with the Double Vector Quantization method

The Double Vector Quantization method, a long-term forecasting method based on the SOM algorithm, has been used to predict the 100 missing values of the CATS competition data set. An analysis of the proposed time series is provided to estimate the dimension of the auto-regressive part of this nonlinear auto-regressive forecasting method. Based on this analysis experimental results using the Double Vector Quantization (DVQ) method are presented and discussed. As one of the features of the DVQ method is its ability to predict scalars as well as vectors of values, the number of iterative predictions needed to reach the prediction horizon is further observed. The method stability for the long term allows obtaining reliable values for a rather long-term forecasting horizon.Comment: Accepted for publication in Neurocomputing, Elsevie

Investigation into the antibacterial effects of Allium sativum

This study set out to compare and contrast the antimicrobial effects of freeze-dried garlic powder against the commonly occurring pathogens specifically Escherichia coli, and the probiotic bacterium Lactobacillus casei. Also to identify possible active components and sites of action of garlic, and study the reactive nature of allicin. Freeze dried garlic proved more inhibitory to E. coli than L. casei (24 h MIC values of 1.9 mg ml-1 and 16.9 mg ml-1 respectively) This was manifested against E. coli as a dose-dependent extension in lag phase (no effect on specific growth rate (SGR)). Inhibitory effects of garlic powder extract against L. casei were manifested as a dose- dependent decrease in specific growth rate. No bacteriocidal activity was observed on treatment of E. coli cultures with garlic concentrations of 20 mg ml-1 or less over 24 hours. Bacteriocidal activity was seen against E. coli when using concentrations in excess of 20 mg ml-1 over 48 h and 72 h. Garlic powder extract proved inhibitory to MRS A strains (EMRSA 15), and displayed synergism with penicillin and methicillin. GC-MS analysis proved garlic powder extract to be a dynamic mixture of sulphur containing compounds, including allicin and allicin reaction products. Half-life of allicin in nutrient broth (37° C) was approximately 11 h, this was reduced to 30 min on addition of E. coli cells. The inhibitory effect of allicin was observed as a dose-dependent increase in lag phase (no effect on SGR). Inhibitory activity of diallyl sulphides was observed as a dose-dependent decrease in SGR and small extensions in lag phase duration. Allyl alcohol brought about a substantial decrease in SGR and culture density at 24 h (concentration independent). Garlic powder extract caused membrane damage and abnormal morphology in E. coli (<2.0 mg ml-1) and L. casei (>10 mg ml-1). A reduction in glucose metabolism was observed in E. coli and L. casei on addition of garlic, also ethanol production and oxygen uptake were stimulated in E. coli cultures. This investigation has highlighted differences in the nature of garlic powder extract inhibition in a susceptible and non-susceptible organism, and identified possible mechanisms of action against E. coli to be cell structure damage, oxidative damage, and metabolic inhibition

Validation of a fornix depth measurer: a putative tool for the assessment of progressive cicatrising conjunctivitis

Background/aims Documentation of conjunctival forniceal foreshortening in cases of progressive cicatrising conjunctivitis (PCC) is important in ascertaining disease stage and progression. Lower fornix shortening is often documented subjectively or semi-objectively, whereas upper forniceal obliteration is seldom quantified. Although tools such as fornix depth measurers (FDMs) have been described, their designs limit upper fornix measurement. The purpose of this study was to custom-design a FDM to evaluate the upper fornix and to assess variability in gauging fornix depth. \ud \ud Methods A polymethylmethacrylate FDM was constructed using industry-standard jewellery computer software and machinery. Two observers undertook a prospective independent evaluation of central lower fornix depth in a heterogeneous cohort of patients with clinically normal and abnormal conjunctival fornices both subjectively and by using the FDM (in mm). Upper central fornix depth was also measured. Agreement was assessed using Bland–Altman plots. \ud \ud Results Fifty-one eyes were evaluated. There was 100% intraobserver agreement to within 1 mm for each observer for lower fornix measurement. The mean difference in fornix depth loss using the FDM between observer 1 and 2 was 1.19%, with 95% confidence of agreement (±2SD) of −15% to +20%. In total, 86% (44/51) of measurements taken by the two observers agreed to within 10% of total lower fornix depth (ie, ±1 mm) versus only 63% (32/51) of the subjective measurements. Mean upper fornix difference was 0.57 mm, with 95% confidence of agreement of between −2 and + 3 mm. \ud \ud Conclusions This custom-designed FDM is well tolerated by patients and shows low intraobserver and interobserver variability. This enables repeatable and reproducible measurement of upper and lower fornix depths, facilitating improved rates of detection and better monitoring of progression of conjunctival scarring

Time Series Forecasting: Obtaining Long Term Trends with Self-Organizing Maps

à la suite de la conférence ANNPR, Florence 2003International audienceKohonen self-organisation maps are a well know classification tool, commonly used in a wide variety of problems, but with limited applications in time series forecasting context. In this paper, we propose a forecasting method specifically designed for multi-dimensional long-term trends prediction, with a double application of the Kohonen algorithm. Practical applications of the method are also presented

Generalized Farey trees, transfer Operators and phase transitions

We consider a family of Markov maps on the unit interval, interpolating between the tent map and the Farey map. The latter map is not uniformly expanding. Each map being composed of two fractional linear transformations, the family generalizes many particular properties which for the case of the Farey map have been successfully exploited in number theory. We analyze the dynamics through the spectral analysis of generalized transfer operators. Application of the thermodynamic formalism to the family reveals first and second order phase transitions and unusual properties like positivity of the interaction function.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figure

Summer music and arts festivals as hot spots for measles transmission: experience from England and Wales, June to October 2016.

We report 52 cases of measles linked to music and arts festivals in England and Wales, between mid-June and mid-October 2016. Nearly half were aged 15 to 19 years. Several individuals who acquired measles at one festival subsequently attended another festival while infectious, resulting in multiple interlinked outbreaks. Transmission within festivals resulted in a geographical spread of cases nationally as well as internationally, which presents particular challenges for measles control

End-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness in adults and children, United Kingdom, 2016/17

Introduction The United Kingdom is in the fourth season of introducing a universal childhood influenza vaccine programme. The 2016/17 season saw early influenza A(H3N2) virus circulation with care home outbreaks and increased excess mortality particularly in those 65 years or older. Virus characterisation data indicated emergence of genetic clusters within the A(H3N2) 3C.2a group which the 2016/17 vaccine strain belonged to. Methods: The test-negative case-control (TNCC) design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed influenza in primary care. Results: Adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates were 39.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.1 to 52.8) against all influenza and 40.6% (95% CI: 19.0 to 56.3) in 18-64-year-olds, but no significant aVE in ≥ 65-year-olds. aVE was 65.8% (95% CI: 30.3 to 83.2) for 2-17-year-olds receiving quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine. Discussion: The findings continue to provide support for the ongoing roll-out of the paediatric vaccine programme, with a need for ongoing evaluation. The importance of effective interventions to protect the ≥ 65-year-olds remains

Increased respiratory viral detection and symptom burden among patients with primary antibody deficiency: results from the BIPAD study

Background Patients with primary antibody deficiency (PAD) are at increased risk of respiratory tract infections, but our understanding of their nature and consequences remains limited. Objective To define the symptomatic and microbial burden of upper airway infection in adults with PAD relative to age-matched controls. Methods Prospective 12-month observational study consisting of a daily upper and lower airway symptom score alongside fortnightly nasal swab with molecular detection of 19 pathogen targets. Results A total of 44 patients and 42 controls (including 34 household pairs) were recruited, providing more than 22,500 days of symptom scores and 1,496 nasal swabs. Swab and questionnaire compliance exceeded 70%. At enrollment, 64% of patients received prophylactic antibiotics, with a 34% prevalence of bronchiectasis. On average, patients with PAD experienced symptomatic respiratory exacerbations every 6 days compared with 6 weeks for controls, associated with significant impairment of respiratory-specific quality-of-life scores. Viral detections were associated with worsening of symptom scores from a participant's baseline. Patients with PAD had increased odds ratio (OR) for pathogen detection, particularly viral (OR, 2.73; 95% CI, 2.09-3.57), specifically human rhinovirus (OR, 3.60; 95% CI, 2.53-5.13) and parainfluenza (OR, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.25-7.50). Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae were also more frequent in PAD. Young child exposure, IgM deficiency, and presence of bronchiectasis were independent risk factors for viral detection. Prophylactic antibiotic use was associated with a lower risk of bacterial detection by PCR. Conclusions Patients with PAD have a significant respiratory symptom burden associated with increased viral infection frequency despite immunoglobulin replacement and prophylactic antibiotic use. This highlights a clear need for future therapeutic trials in the population with PAD, and informs future study design

Maternal SARS-CoV-2 sero-surveillance using newborn dried blood spot (DBS) screening specimens highlights extent of low vaccine uptake in pregnant women

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake in pregnant women is believed to be low and lags behind the general population contributing to increased hospital admissions, and poor maternal and fetal outcomes. However, there is a paucity of information on the SARS-CoV-2 serostatus of pregnant women to help inform policy planning and assess impact of interventions to improve vaccine uptake in this at-risk group. We analyzed 8,683 residual, anonymized newborn screening dried bloodspot (DBS) specimens during a 15-month period (October 2020 to December 2021) in Wales (UK) for SARS-CoV-2 IgG-antibodies. We compared newborn DBS antibody-positive rates to the percentage number of pregnant women vaccinated and the percentage number of antibody-positive adults. In December 2021, 47.8% of women in Wales had received two doses of the vaccine by their delivery date; however, only 41.1% of DBS specimens had high antibody concentrations. Results indicate that a proportion of pregnant women remain at higher-risk of COVID complications, particularly given the reduction in antibody neutralization of Omicron versus the Delta variant. Our study demonstrates the utility of newborn screening DBS specimens to monitor SARS-CoV-2 serostatus in pregnant women representing maternal vaccination and natural infection in almost real-time, defining the immunity gap and impact of any interventions