Stated belief and play in normal form games

Using data on one-shot games, we investigate the assumption that players respond to underlying expectations about their opponent�s behavior. In our laboratory experiments, subjects play a set of 14 two-person 3x3 games, and state first order beliefs about their opponent�s behavior. The sets of responses in the two tasks are largely inconsistent. Rather, we find evidence that the subjects perceive the games differently when they (i) choose actions, and (ii) state beliefs � they appear to pay more attention to the opponent�s incentives when they state beliefs than when they play the games. On average, they fail to best respond to their own stated beliefs in almost half of the games. The inconsistency is confirmed by estimates of a unified statistical model that jointly uses the actions and the belief statements. There, we can control for noise, and formulate a statistical test that rejects consistency. Effects of the belief elicitation procedure on subsequent actions are mostly insignificant

Beliefs and actions in the trust game: creating instrumental variables to estimate the causal effect

In many economic contexts, an elusive variable of interest is the agent's expectation about relevant events, e.g. about other agents' behavior. Recent experimental studies as well as surveys have asked participants to state their beliefs explicitly, but little is known about the causal relation between beliefs and other behavioral variables. This paper discusses the possibility of creating exogenous instrumental variables for belief statements, by shifting the probabilities of the relevant events. We conduct trust game experiments where the amount sent back by the second player (trustee) is exogenously varied by a random process, in a way that informs only the �first player (trustor) about the realized variation. The procedure allows detecting causal links from beliefs to actions under plausible assumptions. The IV estimates indicate a signi�ficant causal effect, comparable to the connection between beliefs and actions that is suggested by OLS analyses

Cognition and Behavior in Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study

This paper reports experiments that elicit subjects' initial responses to 16 dominancesolvable two-person guessing games. The structure is publicly announced except for varying payoff parameters, to which subjects are given free access, game by game, through an interface that records their information searches. Varying the parameters allows strong separation of the behavior implied by leading decision rules and makes monitoring search a powerful tool for studying cognition. Many subjects' decisions and searches show clearly that they understand the games and seek to maximize their payoffs, but have boundedly rational models of others' decisions, which lead to systematic deviations from equilibrium.

Stated Beliefs and Play in Normal-Form Games

Using data on one-shot games, we investigate the assumption that players respond to underlying expectations about their opponent's behavior. In our laboratory experiments, subjects play a set of 14 two-person 3x3 games, and state first order beliefs about their opponent'sbehavior. The sets of responses in the two tasks are largely inconsistent. Rather, we findevidence that the subjects perceive the games differently when they (i) choose actions, and (ii) state beliefs _ they appear to pay more attention to the opponent's incentives when they state beliefs than when they play the games. On average, they fail to best respond to their own stated beliefs in almost half of the games. The inconsistency is confirmed by estimates of a unified statistical model that jointly uses the actions and the belief statements. There, we can control for noise, and formulate a statistical test that rejects consistency. Effects of the belief elicitation procedure on subsequent actions are mostly insignificant.

Farming Systems and Global Threats: Problems and Proposals Northern Portugal Cases

In a context of growing global threats, from climate change, the depletion and degradation of natural resources, to the recent global economic crisis, consequences of short and long term are being witnessed, which undermine the agriculture sustainability. The systems vulnerability, their inability to resilience and the need for innovation is observed, emphasizing also the most capable systems (more sustainable), offering new opportunities and encouraging more environmentally friendly practices. This work takes as starting point the evolution of economic, environmental and social parameters in farms, in recent years, in order to try to identify the difficulties and the solutions capable of sustaining agriculture in the context of multiple hazards at the farm level. The main methodology focuses on inquiries to the responsible agents for developing the main agriculture activities held in Trás-os-Montes, including farmers and their associations. The results confirm the dependence of production factors outside the farm, the limited availability and the high cost of manpower, the weakness of marketing channels and the poor organization of the sector as the main problems. Effective responses to these situations are the opportunities of the activities under study: (a) establishment of an organized marketing circuit, (b) strengthening of mutual help between farms, (c) collective use of inputs, (d) use of environmentally friendly production practices, (e) self-use of products produced on the farm, strengthening their autonomy. This work proposes the society valuation for different levels of agriculture intensity, through discrete choices methodology, to identify the real importance that society attributes to the agrarian activity.Farming sustainability, swot analysis, proposals, International Relations/Trade,

Are Voters Rationally Ignorant? An Empirical Study for Portuguese Local Elections

The application of the rational choice postulate to a political context invariably leads to the conclusion that most voters are ill informed when making the decision for whom to vote. In this paper, the authors do an empirical evaluation of the rational ignorance theory, based on the results of the 1997 Portuguese Local Elections. The results only partially sustain the hypothesis of rational ignorance, although it is also possible to identify several limitations that prevent the establishment of definite conclusions in this specific field.JEL Classification: H7 Key words: Voter’s Behaviour; Local Elections; Local Governments; Portugal.

A PERMANÊNCIA NA EDUCAÇÃO SUPERIOR NO BRASIL: UMA ANÁLISE DAS POLÍTICAS DE ASSISTÊNCIA ESTUDANTIL

Esse trabalho estuda processo de transformação que a universidade vem passando, ao longo das últimas décadas, e como isso interferiu na elaboração de políticas voltadas para a assistência estudantil, no Brasil. Além de averiguar a contribuição dessas políticas para a equidade nesse grau de ensino. A metodologia utilizada foi à análise de documentos, legislações e estudos relacionados ao tema. O referencial teórico assentou-se na concepção de equidade desenvolvida por John Rawls (2008) e McCowan (2005. Os resultados apontam para um processo descontinuo, na construção de políticas de assistência estudantil, até o processo de democratização que ocorreu, no Brasil. As ações identificadas tinham um caráter pontual e com escassez de recursos. A partir da década de 1990, houve maior espaço para discussão sobre o assunto e o desenvolvimento de alguns projetos que visam garantir a permanência dos estudantes na universidade. Tais medidas ainda, apesar de relevantes, não são suficientes para garantir uma maior equidade na universidade. Para tanto, ainda se faz necessário maior investimento em recurso e indivíduos capacitados para gerir tais ações