The potential for bias in principal causal effect estimation when treatment received depends on a key covariate

Motivated by a potential-outcomes perspective, the idea of principal stratification has been widely recognized for its relevance in settings susceptible to posttreatment selection bias such as randomized clinical trials where treatment received can differ from treatment assigned. In one such setting, we address subtleties involved in inference for causal effects when using a key covariate to predict membership in latent principal strata. We show that when treatment received can differ from treatment assigned in both study arms, incorporating a stratum-predictive covariate can make estimates of the "complier average causal effect" (CACE) derive from observations in the two treatment arms with different covariate distributions. Adopting a Bayesian perspective and using Markov chain Monte Carlo for computation, we develop posterior checks that characterize the extent to which incorporating the pretreatment covariate endangers estimation of the CACE. We apply the method to analyze a clinical trial comparing two treatments for jaw fractures in which the study protocol allowed surgeons to overrule both possible randomized treatment assignments based on their clinical judgment and the data contained a key covariate (injury severity) predictive of treatment received.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS477 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

An electronic system for measuring thermophysical properties of wind tunnel models

An electronic system is described which measures the surface temperature of a small portion of the surface of the model or sample at high speeds using an infrared radiometer. This data is processed along with heating rate data from the reference heat gauge in a small computer and prints out the desired thermophysical properties, time, surface temperature, and reference heat rate. This system allows fast and accurate property measurements over thirty temperature increments. The technique, the details of the apparatus, the procedure for making these measurements, and the results of some preliminary tests are presented

Apparatus for determining thermophysical properties of test specimens

Apparatus is described for directly measuring the quantity square root of pck of a test specimen such as a wind tunnel model where p is density, c is the specific heat and k is the thermal conductivity of the specimen. The test specimen and a reference specimen are simultaneously subjected to the heat from a heat source. A thermocouple is attached to the reference specimen for producing a first electrical analog signal proportional to the heat rate Q that the test specimen is subjected to and an infrared radiometer that is aimed at the test specimen produces a second electrical analog signal proportional to the surface temperature T of the test specimen. An analog-to-digital converter converts the first and second electrical analog signals to digital signals. These digital signals are applied to a computer for determining the quantity

Automated electronic system for measuring thermophysical properties

Phase-charge coatings are used to measure surface temperature accurately under transient heating conditions. Coating melts when surface reaches calibrated phase-charge temperature. Temperature is monitored by infrared thermometer, and corresponding elapsed time is recorded by electronic data-handling system

Sin, Salvation, and the Law of Charities

Review of Governing Nonprofit Corporations: Federal and State Law and Regulation. By Marion R. Fremont-Smith. Belknap Press, 2004. 570 pages, $95