Decision support tools and strategies to simulate forest landscape evolutions integrating forest owner behaviour: a review from the case studies of the European Project, INTEGRAL

For forest sustainability and vulnerability assessment, the landscape scale is considered to be more and more relevant as the stand level approaches its known limitations. This review, which describes the main forest landscape simulation tools used in the 20 European case studies of the European project “Future-oriented integrated management of European forest landscapes” (INTEGRAL), gives an update on existing decision support tools to run landscape simulation from Mediterranean to boreal ecosystems. The main growth models and software available in Europe are described, and the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches are discussed. Trades-offs between input efforts and output are illustrated. Recommendations for the selection of a forest landscape simulator are given. The paper concludes by describing the need to have tools that are able to cope with climate change and the need to build more robust indicators for assessment of forest landscape sustainability and vulnerability.The INTEGRAL project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No. 282887. http://www. integral-project.eu/. Moreover, financial support by the Transnational Access to Research Infrastructures activity in the 7th Framework Programme of the EC under the Trees4Future project (No. 284181) for conducting the research is gratefully acknowledged. This research has also received funding from the European Union H2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 691149 (SuFoRun). Researcher Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo was supported by a “Ramon y Cajal” research contract from the MINECO (Ref. RYC-2013-14262) and has received funding from CERCA Programme/Generalitat de Catalunya. This paper could be achieved thanks to support of EFIATLANTIC donors: Conseil regional d’Aquitaine, Ministère de l’agriculture et de la forêt

How sensitive are ecosystem services in European forest landscapes to silvicultural treatment?

While sustainable forestry in Europe is characterized by the provision of a multitude of forest ecosystem services, there exists no comprehensive study that scrutinizes their sensitivity to forest management on a pan-European scale, so far. We compile scenario runs from regionally tailored forest growth models and Decision Support Systems (DSS) from 20 case studies throughout Europe and analyze whether the ecosystem service provision depends on management intensity and other co-variables, comprising regional affiliation, social environment, and tree species composition. The simulation runs provide information about the case-specifically most important ecosystem services in terms of appropriate indicators. We found a strong positive correlation between management intensity and wood production, but only weak correlation with protective and socioeconomic forest functions. Interestingly, depending on the forest region, we found that biodiversity can react in both ways, positively and negatively, to increased management intensity. Thus, it may be in tradeoff or in synergy with wood production and forest resource maintenance. The covariables species composition and social environment are of punctual interest only, while the affiliation to a certain region often makes an important difference in terms of an ecosystem service’s treatment sensitivityinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701

Evaluating Goal Programming as a Backcasting Tool to Assess the Impact of Local Stakeholder Determined Policies on the Future Provision of Ecosystem Services in Forested Landscapes

Forest management in Ireland has traditionally focused on timber production and policies have been implemented with this in mind. Since the mid-1990s, the focus is transitioning from timber production to a more multifunctional forest management approach following the principles of sustainable forest management. A method known as “backcasting” has the potential to include local stakeholders into land-use and policy planning. Two case study areas were chosen to investigate the potential of backcasting for integrated forest landscape planning in Ireland: Western Peatlands and Newmarket. Potential beneficial policies produced by local stakeholders in participatory workshops were assessed for robustness using a goal programming model and the resulting changes in forest management and ecosystem service provisions were analysed. While each evaluated backcasting policy increased the provision of that policy’s targeted ecosystem service(s), it was at a cost to some others. The widening of buffer zones did reduce the landscape level risk to water sedimentation and the policy to enhance each landscape’s recreation potential did the intended. However, both policies reduced the amount of timber produced for most potential futures. The option of using genetically improved tree species showed potential to mitigate the effect of these policies on timber production. We present this study as a useful reference point toward evaluating the efficacy of a range of potentially implementable scenarios in Ireland. We believe the backcasting approach has promise for future use in other landscapes, given the success of this approach in our study. Given that much of the information required to model the ecosystem services was extracted from scientific research and datasets from outside of Ireland, the approach may well be useful for others seeking to do similar outside of Ireland

Evaluating Goal Programming as a Backcasting Tool to Assess the Impact of Local Stakeholder Determined Policies on the Future Provision of Ecosystem Services in Forested Landscapes

Forest management in Ireland has traditionally focused on timber production and policies have been implemented with this in mind. Since the mid-1990s, the focus is transitioning from timber production to a more multifunctional forest management approach following the principles of sustainable forest management. A method known as “backcasting” has the potential to include local stakeholders into land-use and policy planning. Two case study areas were chosen to investigate the potential of backcasting for integrated forest landscape planning in Ireland: Western Peatlands and Newmarket. Potential beneficial policies produced by local stakeholders in participatory workshops were assessed for robustness using a goal programming model and the resulting changes in forest management and ecosystem service provisions were analysed. While each evaluated backcasting policy increased the provision of that policy’s targeted ecosystem service(s), it was at a cost to some others. The widening of buffer zones did reduce the landscape level risk to water sedimentation and the policy to enhance each landscape’s recreation potential did the intended. However, both policies reduced the amount of timber produced for most potential futures. The option of using genetically improved tree species showed potential to mitigate the effect of these policies on timber production. We present this study as a useful reference point toward evaluating the efficacy of a range of potentially implementable scenarios in Ireland. We believe the backcasting approach has promise for future use in other landscapes, given the success of this approach in our study. Given that much of the information required to model the ecosystem services was extracted from scientific research and datasets from outside of Ireland, the approach may well be useful for others seeking to do similar outside of Ireland

A Linear Programming Model to Biophysically Assess Some Ecosystem Service Synergies and Trade-Offs in Two Irish Landscapes

Ecosystem service provisions are becoming more frequently used to assess land-use related conflicts in recent decades. This study investigates the current spatial and research information available to quantify ecosystem services relative to forest land-use planning in Ireland. A model is developed using the linear-programming method in Remsoft’s Woodstock platform. This model is applied to two case study areas in Ireland: Western Peatlands and Newmarket. Each case study area was chosen to assess a unique issue in the Irish and European context on the provision of ecosystem services. Western Peatlands was chosen to assess the effects of forest and alternative land-use options and Newmarket was chosen to investigate the effect of afforestation. The synergies and trade-offs of biophysically optimising the provisions of each ecosystem service are presented and discussed. The study quantitatively determines that trade-offs among provisions of some ecosystem services are required when optimising an ecosystem service while other ecosystem services are synergistic when the provision of a single ecosystem service is optimised

Using Goal-Programming to Model the Effect of Stakeholder Determined Policy and Industry Changes on the Future Management of and Ecosystem Services Provision by Ireland’s Western Peatland Forests

Recent studies have highlighted land-use conflicts between stakeholder groups in Ireland. Some of these conflicts can be attributed to European directives, designed with sustainable forest management principles in mind, but imposing incoherencies for land-owners and stakeholders at the local level. This study, using Ireland’s Western Peatland forests as a case study area, focused on the development and implementation of a goal programming model capable of analysing the long term impact of policy and industry changes at the landscape level. The model captures the essential aspects of the changes identified by local level stakeholders as influencing forest management in Ireland and determines the future impact of these changes on ecosystem services provisions. Initially, a business as usual potential future is generated. This is used as a baseline against which to compare the impact of industry and policy changes. The model output indicated that the current forest composition is only really suited to satisfy a single, financial objective for forest management. The goal programming model analysed multiple objectives simultaneously and the results indicated that the stakeholders’ desired ecosystem service provisions in the future will be more closely met by diversifying the forest estate and/or by changing to an alternative, non-forest land-use on less productive areas