Dynamic scaling approach to study time series fluctuations

We propose a new approach for properly analyzing stochastic time series by mapping the dynamics of time series fluctuations onto a suitable nonequilibrium surface-growth problem. In this framework, the fluctuation sampling time interval plays the role of time variable, whereas the physical time is treated as the analog of spatial variable. In this way we found that the fluctuations of many real-world time series satisfy the analog of the Family-Viscek dynamic scaling ansatz. This finding permits to use the powerful tools of kinetic roughening theory to classify, model, and forecast the fluctuations of real-world time series.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Flame burning speeds and combustion characteristics of undiluted and nitrogen-diluted hydrogen-nitrous oxide mixtures

In the present study, some explosive properties of undiluted and nitrogen-diluted H_2–N_2O mixtures were characterized. Laminar burning speeds and the explosion-induced pressure rises were determined experimentally for a range of mixture equivalence ratios (ϕ=0.15−1.0), dilutions (0-55%N_2) and initial pressures (20-80kPa). The measured burning speeds were used to validate laminar burning speed computations using a detailed chemical kinetic mechanism. The computations were then used to estimate burning speeds at high initial pressure and low dilution conditions that could not be measured experimentally. The results demonstrate that hydrogen–nitrous oxide mixtures exhibit laminar burning speeds as large as 350 cm/s and pressure rise coefficients (K_g) as large as 35 MPa m/s. Also, flames in lean mixtures are shown to be highly unstable which can lead to flame acceleration and possible deflagration-to-detonation transition

Experimental investigation of spark ignition energy in kerosene, hexane, and hydrogen

Quantifying the risk of accidental ignition of flammable mixtures is extremely important in industry and aviation safety. The concept of a minimum ignition energy (MIE), obtained using a capacitive spark discharge ignition source, has traditionally formed the basis for determining the hazard posed by fuels. While extensive tabulations of historical MIE data exist, there has been little work done on ignition of realistic industrial and aviation fuels, such as gasoline or kerosene. In the current work, spark ignition tests are performed in a gaseous kerosene–air mixture with a liquid fuel temperature of 60°C and a fixed spark gap of 3.3 mm. The required ignition energy was examined, and a range of spark energies over which there is a probability of ignition is identified and compared with previous test results in Jet A (aviation kerosene). The kerosene results are also compared with ignition test results obtained in previous work for traditional hydrogen-based surrogate mixtures used in safety testing as well as two hexane–air mixtures. Additionally, the statistical nature of spark ignition is discussed

Características estadísticas de las masas de aire en la troposfera de la región húmeda argentina

Se analizaron las carácterísticaa estadísticas de las masas de aire utilizando como variable la temperatura adiabática potencial equivalente en las estaciones aerológicas: Resistencia (27.27°S, 59.03°W), Córdoba (31.19°S, 64.13’W), Ezeiza (34.49’S, 58.32°W), Santa Rosa (36.34’S, 64.16°W)' y Comandante Espora (38.40°S, 62.10°W). Las técnicas empleadas para el análisis propuesto son estadísticas exploratorias y permitieron examinar el comportamiento espacial (en la vertical y con la latitud) y temporal, de parámetros estadísticos y de las distribuciones para cada mes y época del año. En invierno Resistencia se puede definir como una zona de transición en 850 y 800 mb. entre las masas de aire frío que irrumpen desde el sur y las masas calientes y tropicales que llegan desde el sector norte. Se encontró además un aumento de la frecuencia de masas cálidas y húmedas en los últimos quince años en Resistencia y Ezeiza en el nivel de 850 mb. tanto en verano como en invierno respecto del período 1958/1967.Air mass statistical characteristics were studied using equivalent potential adiabatic temperature. The aerological stations whose upper air soundings were considered are the following: Resistencia (27.27°S, 59.03°W), Córdoba (31.19’S, 64.13°W), Ezeiza (34.49’S, 58.32’W), Santa Rosa (36.34°S,64.16’W) and Comandante Espora (38.40°S,62.10°W). With the statistical techniques utilized, spatial and temporal behavior of the basic statistical parameters was examined. Variable distributions for each month and season were also studied. The results show that there is a transition zone in 850 and 800 mb. in Resistencia during winter. In that region cold air mass that come from the south and warm air mass that come from the north both have the same frecuency in variable distributions. Finally, a warming was observed in Resistencia and Ezeiza variable distributions during the last fifteen years respect to the period 1958/1967. That behavior was found in 850 mb during winter and sumner.Asociación Argentina de Geofísicos y Geodesta

Microscopic-observation drug-susceptibility assay for the diagnosis of TB.

BACKGROUND: New diagnostic tools are urgently needed to interrupt the transmission of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Rapid, sensitive detection of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in sputum has been demonstrated in proof-of-principle studies of the microscopic-observation drug-susceptibility (MODS) assay, in which broth cultures are examined microscopically to detect characteristic growth. METHODS: In an operational setting in Peru, we investigated the performance of the MODS assay for culture and drug-susceptibility testing in three target groups: unselected patients with suspected tuberculosis, prescreened patients at high risk for tuberculosis or multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, and unselected hospitalized patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus. We compared the MODS assay head-to-head with two reference methods: automated mycobacterial culture and culture on Löwenstein-Jensen medium with the proportion method. RESULTS: Of 3760 sputum samples, 401 (10.7%) yielded cultures positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Sensitivity of detection was 97.8% for MODS culture, 89.0% for automated mycobacterial culture, and 84.0% for Löwenstein-Jensen culture (P<0.001); the median time to culture positivity was 7 days, 13 days, and 26 days, respectively (P<0.001), and the median time to the results of susceptibility tests was 7 days, 22 days, and 68 days, respectively. The incremental benefit of a second MODS culture was minimal, particularly in patients at high risk for tuberculosis or multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Agreement between MODS and the reference standard for susceptibility was 100% for rifampin, 97% for isoniazid, 99% for rifampin and isoniazid (combined results for multidrug resistance), 95% for ethambutol, and 92% for streptomycin (kappa values, 1.0, 0.89, 0.93, 0.71, and 0.72, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: A single MODS culture of a sputum sample offers more rapid and sensitive detection of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis than the existing gold-standard methods used

Accuracy of diabetes screening methods used for people with tuberculosis, Indonesia, Peru, Romania, South Africa

Objective To evaluate the performance of diagnostic tools for diabetes mellitus, including laboratory methods and clinical risk scores, in newly-diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients from four middle-income countries. Methods In a multicentre, prospective study, we recruited 2185 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis from sites in Indonesia, Peru, Romania and South Africa from January 2014 to September 2016. Using laboratory-measured glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) as the gold standard, we measured the diagnostic accuracy of random plasma glucose, point-of-care HbA1c, fasting blood glucose, urine dipstick, published and newly derived diabetes mellitus risk scores and anthropometric measurements. We also analysed combinations of tests, including a two-step test using point-of-care HbA1cwhen initial random plasma glucose was ≥ 6.1 mmol/L. Findings The overall crude prevalence of diabetes mellitus among newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients was 283/2185 (13.0%; 95% confidence interval, CI: 11.6–14.4). The marker with the best diagnostic accuracy was point-of-care HbA1c (area under receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.75–0.86). A risk score derived using age, point-of-care HbA1c and random plasma glucose had the best overall diagnostic accuracy (area under curve: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.81–0.90). There was substantial heterogeneity between sites for all markers, but the two-step combination test performed well in Indonesia and Peru. Conclusion Random plasma glucose followed by point-of-care HbA1c testing can accurately diagnose diabetes in tuberculosis patients, particularly those with substantial hyperglycaemia, while reducing the need for more expensive point-of-care HbA1c testing. Risk scores with or without biochemical data may be useful but require validation

Emerging properties of financial time series in the “Game of Life”

We explore the spatial complexity of Conway’s “Game of Life,” a prototypical cellular automaton by means of a geometrical procedure generating a two-dimensional random walk from a bidimensional lattice with periodical boundaries. The one-dimensional projection of this process is analyzed and it turns out that some of its statistical properties resemble the so-called stylized facts observed in financial time series. The scope and meaning of this result are discussed from the viewpoint of complex systems. In particular, we stress how the supposed peculiarities of financial time series are, often, overrated in their importance