The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Legacies of Violence : Conflict-specific Capital and the Postconflict Diffusion of Civil War

Civil wars have a tendency to spread across borders. In several instances of conflict diffusion, however, conflicts spread well after their cessation at home. Whereas existing diffusion research has not attached much importance to this observation, I argue that these conflicts are instances of a broader pattern of postconflict diffusion. Wars are particularly prone to spread after termination because the end of fighting generates a surplus of weapons, combatants, and rebel leaders whose fortunes are tied to the continuation of violence. Some of these resources circulate throughout the region via the small arms trade and through transnational rebel networks, making this a time at which it should be easier for nonstate groups in the neighborhood to build a capable rebel army. The results from two complementary statistical tests on global conflict data provide strong support for such a postconflict diffusion effect

Resilienz und Verwundbarkeit in der Schweiz: Die Unwetter-Katastrophe von 2005

ISSN:1024-060

Shifting targets : the effect of peacekeeping on postwar violence

Existing research shows that peace after civil wars is more stable with peacekeepers present. Yet, violence persists in many postwar contexts, and although postwar violence is often strategic and closely linked to the faultlines of the preceding war, we know little about the impact of peacekeepers on such violence. What we know, moreover, focuses on the former combatants, while this study shows that the majority of deaths in postwar violence are inflicted by other armed actors. This is a challenge for peacekeepers who – for mandate or capacity reasons – usually focus on the warring parties. I argue that the impact of peacekeepers on postwar violence hinges on the extent to which they fill a public security gap after war, since responsibility for violence not covered by a mission’s mandate lies with the often dysfunctional security agencies of the state. To test this I use a novel spatial approach to generate data that captures the manifold manifestations of violence across different postwar contexts. I find that only UN police – with their broader effect on public security – mitigate postwar violence generally. UN troops have some impact on civilian targeting by former combatants but no such effect could be identified for violence by other armed actors. The findings highlight the importance of peacekeeping police at a time when the modus operandi and capacity of UN police have been questioned, but also the importance of accounting for a multitude of violent actors when analysing the impact of international interventions more generally

Risiko- und Gefährdungsanalysen im Bevölkerungsschutz: Eine Umfragestudie über laufende Arbeiten in den Kantonen

Die vorliegende Studie über Risiko- und Gefährdungsanalysen im Bevölkerungsschutz in den Kantonen wurde im Auftrag des Bundesamtes für Bevölkerungsschutz (BABS) durchgeführt. Sämtliche 26 Kantone haben sich an der Umfrage im November und Dezember 2010 beteiligt. Die Studie gibt Auskunft über den Stand der Arbeiten in den Kantonen, die relevanten Akteure und deren Zusammenarbeit in der Gefährdungsanalyse, das betrachtete Gefährdungsspektrum, Ziel und Zweck von kantonalen Gefährdungsanalysen, die verwendeten Methoden und die Zusammenarbeit zwischen dem Bund und den Kantonen

UNO-Friedenssicherung

Der 75. Jahrestag der UNO-Friedenssicherung ist ein Grund zum Feiern. Die Forschung zeigt, dass UNO-Truppen die Gewalt in Kriegen zwischen und innerhalb von Staaten wirksam eindämmen können. Trotzdem steht die UNO-Friedenssicherung gegenwärtig vor grossen Herausforderungen.ISSN:2296-023

Factsheet: Social vulnerability to disasters

The impact of disasters understood as extreme events that cause great damage, destruction, and human suffering is not the same on all people. Disaster losses are only at first sight the result of the respective events. At second sight, they are reflections of human vulnerabilities that arise from physical, social, economic, and political conditions and inequalities that have little to do with the event itself. The concept of social vulnerability to disasters highlights these differences in disaster risk. This factsheet serves three main purposes: First, it offers a brief overview of the concept's meaning and of the central topics currently discussed in both research and policy. Second, it demonstrates the important link between social vulnerability and more established concepts such as risk and resilience, and shows the added value of a social vulnerability perspective in all phases of the disaster/risk management cycle. Finally, it aims to encourage a discussion on social vulnerability in Switzerland, since such a debate is de facto absent to date. It offers a number of practical recommendations on how a social vulnerability perspective can complement ongoing initiatives and processes in risk assessment and disaster management

Trinationaler Workshop D-A-CH: Erfahrungsaustausch über die Implementierung von Methoden zur Risikoanalyse im Bevölkerungsschutz: 31. Mai – 2. Juni 2010, Akademie für Krisenmanagement, Notfallplanung und Zivilschutz (AKNZ) Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler

Vom 31. Mai bis 2. Juni 2010 trafen sich Bevölkerungsschutzverantwortliche aus Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz zum Workshop Risikoanalyse im Bevölkerungsschutz. Das Hauptziel der Veranstaltung war ein Methodenvergleich zwischen den drei Staaten und ein Erfahrungsaustausch über die Durchführung der Risikoanalyse auf verschiedenen administrativen Ebenen. Im Zentrum standen Diskussionen über Abstimmungsprozesse und Datenflüsse zwischen Departementen, Ministerien und Ämtern auf der Ebene Bund sowie Gespräche über die Zusammenarbeit zwischen Bund, Ländern/Kantonen, Landkreisen und Gemeinden