PREDICTABILITY AND COMPLEXITY IN MACROECONOMICS. THE CASE OF GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION IN THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY

There is a relationship between predictability and complexity. The problem of evaluating the complexity of the macroeconomic phenomenon can be reduced to decomposition into its principal components (which may have, in their turn, a certain degree of complexity) and to identify its common sources of evolution that are predictable. In this paper, we evaluate the predictability of economic indicators and continue with its decomposition until the simplest sources allowed by available statistical data are obtained, then use this predictable sources to construct a forecasting model.predictability, complexity, principal components, consumption, investment, foreign trade, time series forecasting

The Relation between Predictability and Complexity: Domestic and Public Consumption in the Romanian Economy

We continue with the problem of the relation between predictability and complexity in the Romanian economy, analyzing other two components of GDP: domestic consumption and public consumption. The basic idea of this work is that the unpredictability of a system gives a measure of its complexity, so that in order to predict a future state of a complex system one must find the system structure explained by some simpler components that can be predicted. The complexity of the economic system is reflected in the synthetic macroeconomic indicators (GDP and its components). We find the principal components of the macroeconomic variables as a preprocessing step and model them as linear combinations of some simpler non observable predictable variables; we have constructed empirical models for domestic and public consumption; it was shown that these models are sufficiently accurate to predict for two or three periods ahead.complexity, predictability, consumption, complexity pursuit, time series forecasting

THE "DOBRESCU MACROMODEL" OF THE ROMANIAN MARKET ECONOMY - 2005 VERSION YEARLY FORECAST AUTUMN FORECAST

In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations

THE "DOBRESCU" MACROMODEL OF THE ROMANIAN MARKET ECONOMY - 2005 VERSION - YEARLY FORECAST*

The paper briefly presents the "Dobrescu" macromodel, the 2005 version, and the yearly forecast of the Romanian market economy computed on its basis. * (PHARE Programme RO2003/005-551.02.03 "Strengthening the capacity for analysis, macroeconomic forecast and elaboration of economic policies within the National Commission of Prognosis, the Ministry of Economy and Trade and the Prime Minister's Cabinet" - Romanian Center for Economic Policies, http://www.cnp.ro/site CNP.pdf. Published on the site Internet Securities Inc., ISI Emerging Markets, http://www.securities.com)macromodel, simulations, forecasting

THE "DOBRESCU MACROMODEL" OF THE ROMANIAN MARKET ECONOMY - 2005 VERSION YEARLY FORECAST AUTUMN FORECAST

In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2004). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations

The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy* -2005 Version-Yearly Forecast Scenario for “Increase in foreign capital inflows”

In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations

Effect of two sous-vide cooking methods on physicochemical characteristics of Longissimus thoracis muscle from pigs fed with or without extruded linseed

Meat is recognised as a highly nutritive food. With cooking, the meat enhances its nutritional value and becomes more digestible. However, high cooking temperatures lead to several chemical modifications in meat. Therefore, there is an increasing interest in sous-vide cooking. The aim of this research was to study the influence of two sous-vide cooking methods on physicochemical characteristics of Longissimus thoracis (LT) muscle from 24 pigs fed with two different diets: control group (C) had a basal barley/ soybean diet; in the linseed group (L), 5% of extruded linseed replaced the same amount of barley. At 24 h post mortem, LT muscles were sliced, vacuum sealed and stored at −18 °C until analysis. Samples were cooked in water bath at two different combinations of temperature and time: ‘A’ 80 °C of the bath water as long as the core temperature of the pork reached 70 °C; ‘B’ 60 °C for 15 h. After the cooking process, the samples were kept under refrigeration (2 °C) for 24 h. The day after, cooking loss, colour, pH, microbial growth and tenderness were determined. Microbial growth was analysed also in the raw meat. Statistical analysis was performed by means of ANOVA, using the GLM procedure of SAS. Dietary treatment (C vs. L) and cooking condition (A vs. B) were used as independent variables. Dietary treatments did not produce significant differences in pH, colour, cooking loss and tenderness. Colour parameters were affected by cooking method: a* values of the internal part of the sample and b* values of the external part were higher for the samples cooked at 60 °C (a* 4.74 vs. 3.97 for B and A, respectively, p<.05; b* 17.79 vs. 15.84, p<.01). The A cooking method led to higher (p<.01) shear force values (5.03 vs. 3.30 kg). The microbial load in the raw meat was significantly different (p<.05) between dietary treatments: C group showed higher total viable count (4.56 vs. 4.14 log10) and Enterobacteriaceae (2.65 vs. 1.94 log10) respect to L group. Low microbial growth was detected for both cooking methods. Total viable count was 0.50 log10 for A cooking method and 0.64 log10 for B, without significant differences among them. No Enterobacteriaceae growth was detected. Also, no differences were found for pH and cooking loss between A and B. Both cooking methods generated a meat safe from contamination. The B method: low temperature for long time also, generated tender meat

Miglioramento delle caratteristiche nutrizionali e tecnologiche della carne suina mediante integrazione della dieta con semi di lino estrusi ed antiossidanti sintetici e naturali

La carne \ue8 un\u2019importante fonte di proteine, aminoacidi essenziali, grassi, minerali, vitamine ed altri nutrienti. Tuttavia, negli ultimi anni diversi studi epidemiologici hanno associato il consumo di carne rossa e carne trasformata ad un aumentato rischio di malattie cardiovascolari e cancro del colon-retto. Il profilo nutrizionale e dietetico e la qualit\ue0 della carne suina possono essere migliorati attraverso la manipolazione della dieta degli animali. Lo scopo di questa ricerca \ue8 stato quello di verificare l\u2019effetto dell\u2019impiego di semi di lino, ricchi di acidi grassi n-3, e l\u2019aggiunta di antiossidanti nella dieta suina al fine di migliorare la qualit\ue0 della carne. Sono stati condotti due esperimenti per studiare la potenziale applicazione dei semi di lino estrusi ed antiossidanti sintetici e naturali sulle caratteristiche della carcassa e sulla qualit\ue0 della carne. Il primo esperimento, preliminare al secondo, ha avuto come obbiettivo quello di studiare l'effetto dell\u2019integrazione della dieta con semi di lino estrusi addizionati di livelli sopra-nutrizionali di vitamina E e selenio o estratto di bucce d'uva, valutando: le caratteristiche della carcassa, la composizione in acidi grassi dei depositi adiposi e del muscolo Longissimus thoracis et lumborum (LTL), e la shelf-life di quest\u2019ultimo confezionato in atmosfera modificata (MAP) con ossigeno (70% O2/30% CO2) o azoto (70% N2/30% CO2) a temperatura di refrigerazione, durante lo stoccaggio. Non \ue8 stato riscontrato alcun effetto dei trattamenti dietetici sulle caratteristiche della carcassa. Inoltre, drip e cooking loss, stabilit\ue0 ossidativa nei muscoli crudi e cotti, tenerezza e composizione chimica non sono stati influenzati n\ue9 dall\u2019inclusione dei semi di lino n\ue9 dall'aggiunta di antiossidanti. L'inclusione dei semi di lino ha aumentato il contenuto degli acidi grassi n-3 e ha ridotto il rapporto n-6/n-3 sia nel grasso sottocutaneo che nel muscolo LTL. Come previsto, il confezionamento in MAP ad alta concentrazione di ossigeno ha determinato un aumento dei prodotti ossidativi, mantenendo un colore pi\uf9 rosso della carne durante lo stoccaggio refrigerato, indipendentemente dal trattamento dietetico. Nel secondo esperimento si \ue8 valutato, in aggiunta alle diete del primo, l\u2019effetto di una dieta con l\u2019inclusione di solo lino, e alla dieta che includeva l\u2019estratto di bucce d\u2019uva \ue8 stato aggiunto anche l\u2019estratto di origano. Sono stati valutati, gli effetti delle diete sugli stessi parametri dell\u2019esperimento precedente, utilizzando un\u2019unica formulazione di MAP ad alta concentrazione di ossigeno (35% CO2, 65% O2); \ue8 stata inoltre condotta la valutazione dell\u2019analisi microbiologica durante il periodo di conservazione refrigerata del muscolo LTL. Le diete integrate con semi di lino estrusi ed antiossidanti non hanno influenzato le caratteristiche della carcassa. Lo studio sulla shelf-life ha mostrato che la crescita microbica tendeva ad essere pi\uf9 elevata nel gruppo di controllo rispetto agli altri gruppi. Tuttavia, durante l'intero esperimento tutte le conte microbiche erano al di sotto del limite soglia per la vendita della carne cruda (6 log10 CFU / g), stabilito dall\u2019EFSA. L'ossidazione dei lipidi nel muscolo LTL \ue8 aumentata durante il tempo di conservazione per tutti i trattamenti dietetici, tuttavia non sono state riscontrate differenze significative tra i gruppi. \uc8 interessante notare che gli estratti vegetali sono stati efficaci quanto la vitamina E nel prevenire l'ossidazione dei lipidi. L'inclusione dei semi di lino nelle diete dei suini ha aumentato la quantit\ue0 di acidi grassi n-3 nel tessuto adiposo e nel muscolo LTL ed ha anche ridotto il rapporto n-6 / n-3 fino ad un valore inferiore a 4, considerato ottimale per la salute dei consumatori.Meat and meat products are important sources of protein, essential amino acids, fat, minerals, vitamins and other nutrients. However, in recent years, several epidemiological studies have associated red meat and processed meat consumption with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer. A good strategy for improving nutritional profile and pork quality could be the manipulation of animal diet. The aim of this research was to produce \u201chealthier\u201d pork by feeding with ingredients rich in n-3 fatty acids as linseed and addition of antioxidants for improving meat quality, during animal breeding. Two experiments were performed to investigate the potential application of extruded linseed and synthetic or natural antioxidants from oregano and grape skin in pig diets, on the carcass characteristics and pork quality. The first experiment was made as a preliminary of the second, for the evaluation of the tested products. The first experiment investigated the effect of inclusion of extruded linseed supplemented with supra-nutritional doses of vitamin E and Selenium or natural antioxidants from grape skin extract in pig diets on the carcass characteristics and lipid fatty acid composition, meat quality and shelf-life of Longissimus thoracis et lumborum (LTL) muscle packaged in modified atmospheres (MAP) with oxygen (70% O2/30% CO2) or nitrogen (70% N2/30% CO2), during refrigerated storage. No effect of dietary treatments was found on the carcass characteristics. Further, drip and cooking losses, oxidative stability in raw and cooked muscle, shear force and chemical composition (moisture, crude protein and lipid contents of LTL muscle) were affected neither by linseed nor by the antioxidants addition. Linseed inclusion in pig diets increased n-3 PUFA content and reduced n-6/n-3 PUFA ratio in both backfat and LTL muscle. As expected, high concentration of oxygen in MAP brought about an increase in oxidative products and yielded redder meat, irrespective of the dietary treatment during refrigerated storage. In the second experiment, in comparison with the first one, was included a diet with only extruded linseed, and the diet with natural antioxidants was supplemented with oregano extract. The effects of the diets on the same parameters of the previous experiment were evaluated, in addition to the microbial growth of LTL muscle packed in high oxygen MAP (35% CO2, 65% O2). The addition of extruded linseed and vegetal extracts supplementation in the pig diets did not affect the carcass characteristics. Shelf-life study showed that microbial growth tended to be higher in the control group respect to other groups. However, throughout the experiment all the microbiological counts were under the microbiological selling threshold (6 log10 CFU/g) of raw meat established by European Food and Safety Authority. Lipid oxidation in LTL muscle increased with storage time for all dietary treatments, however no significant differences were found among the groups. It is interesting to note that vegetal extracts were as effective as vitamin E in preventing lipid oxidation. Linseed inclusion in pig diets increased n-3 fatty acids amount in the backfat and LTL muscle, and also reduced the n-6/n-3 ratio up to a level below 4, considered optimal for consumers\u2019 health

Effect of extruded linseed, vitamin E and polyphenols pig dietary supplementation on microbial growth of meat during refrigerated storage

Meat is an important source of essential nutrients for human, it is a source of lipids, protein and vitamins but it is a highly perishable product. The shelf-life of meat depends on several factors such as storage condition, processing, packaging and distribution that can cause evident spoilage. Microbial contamination is influenced by the condition of animals prior to slaughter, slaughterhouse practices, extent of handling and subsequent storage. Temperature is the main factor used to decrease growth of spoilage bacteria on meat. The aim of this work was to study the effect of vitamin E (VE) and polyphenols (P) dietary supplementation on microbial growth of pork coming from pig fed with 5% extruded linseed from about 80 kg live weight till to slaughtering (144.7 ± 7.2 Kg). Twenty-four Large White pigs were fed with four different diets: control group (C) a basal barley/soybean based diet (VE 10 ppm and selenium 0.1 ppm); L group, 5% extruded linseed with VE 10 ppm and selenium 0.1 ppm; LE group, 5% extruded linseed with 200 ppm VE and 0.3 ppm selenium; LP group, 5% extruded linseed with 800 ppm of total P added by grapes (10.45% of P) and oregano (25% of P) extract (2.87 g and 2 g per kg feed, respectively), VE 10 ppm and selenium 0.1 ppm. At 24 h post mortem (p.m), longissimus dorsi muscle was sliced and packed under modified atmosphere (35% CO2, 65% O2) and stored at 2 ± 1 C in darkness for 4, 6, 8 and 12 days. Starting from six loins for each treatment group, two homogenized sub-samples, each consisting of chops from three different loins, were created. Each sampling was replicated twice. Samples (10 g) were homogenized in 90 ml of sterile physiological solution in a stomacher. Mesophilic aerobic bacteria and Enterobacteriaceae were quantified by plating onto appropriate media. At 24 h p.m, the microbial load was similar in L (50 CFU/g), LE (75 CFU/g), and LP (60 CFU/g) groups, but lower compared with C (875 CFU/g) group. At the end of storage time, the microbial loads for L, LE and LP groups were about 103 CFU/g, without significant differences among them. Instead, the final value for C group was about 104 CFU/g. The results show that dietary polyphenols, vitamin E and linseeds supplementation might increase the shelf-life of pork meat packaged under modified atmosphere. However, taking into consideration the microbial load evolution, groups L and LP showed a less pronounced increase of the viable count during the entire storage period

Effect of extruded linseed, vitamin E and polyphenols pig dietary supplementation on microbial growth of meat during refrigerated storage

Meat is an important source of essential nutrients for human, it is a source of lipids, protein and vitamins but it is a highly perishable product. The shelf-life of meat depends on several factors such as storage condition, processing, packaging and distribution that can cause evident spoilage. Microbial contamination is influenced by the condition of animals prior to slaughter, slaughterhouse practices, extent of handling and subsequent storage. Temperature is the main factor used to decrease growth of spoilage bacteria on meat. The aim of this work was to study the effect of vitamin E (VE) and polyphenols (P) dietary supplementation on microbial growth of pork coming from pig fed with 5% extruded linseed from about 80 kg live weight till to slaughtering (144.7 \ub1 7.2 Kg). Twenty-four Large White pigs were fed with four different diets: control group (C) a basal barley/soybean based diet (VE 10 ppm and selenium 0.1 ppm); L group, 5% extruded linseed with VE 10 ppm and selenium 0.1 ppm; LE group, 5% extruded linseed with 200 ppm VE and 0.3 ppm selenium; LP group, 5% extruded linseed with 800 ppm of total P added by grapes (10.45% of P) and oregano (25% of P) extract (2.87 g and 2 g per kg feed, respectively), VE 10 ppm and selenium 0.1 ppm. At 24 h post mortem (p.m), longissimus dorsi muscle was sliced and packed under modified atmosphere (35% CO2, 65% O2) and stored at 2 \ub1 1 C in darkness for 4, 6, 8 and 12 days. Starting from six loins for each treatment group, two homogenized sub-samples, each consisting of chops from three different loins, were created. Each sampling was replicated twice. Samples (10 g) were homogenized in 90 ml of sterile physiological solution in a stomacher. Mesophilic aerobic bacteria and Enterobacteriaceae were quantified by plating onto appropriate media. At 24 h p.m, the microbial load was similar in L (50 CFU/g), LE (75 CFU/g), and LP (60 CFU/g) groups, but lower compared with C (875 CFU/g) group. At the end of storage time, the microbial loads for L, LE and LP groups were about 103 CFU/g, without significant differences among them. Instead, the final value for C group was about 104 CFU/g. The results show that dietary polyphenols, vitamin E and linseeds supplementation might increase the shelf-life of pork meat packaged under modified atmosphere. However, taking into consideration the microbial load evolution, groups L and LP showed a less pronounced increase of the viable count during the entire storage period