THE "DOBRESCU MACROMODEL" OF THE ROMANIAN MARKET ECONOMY - 2005 VERSION YEARLY FORECAST AUTUMN FORECAST

Abstract

In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations