Big brother is watching - using digital disease surveillance tools for near real-time forecasting

Abstract for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases 79 (S1) (2019).https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(18)34659-9/abstractPublished versio

Near-Ultraviolet Sources in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field: The Catalog

The catalog from the first high-resolution U-band image of the Hubble Ultra Deep Field, taken with Hubble's Wide-Field Planetary Camera 2 through the F300W filter, is presented. We detect 96 U-band objects and compare and combine this catalog with a Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey B-selected catalog that provides B, V, i, and z photometry, spectral types, and photometric redshifts. We have also obtained far-ultraviolet (FUV, 1614 Å) data with Hubble's Advanced Camera for Surveys Solar Blind Channel (ACS/SBC) and with GALEX. We detected 31 sources with ACS/SBC, 28 with GALEX/FUV, and 45 with GALEX/NUV. The methods of observations, image processing, object identification, catalog preparation, and catalog matching are presented

Report 47: A generic method and software to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time : SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study

Recent months have demonstrated that emerging variants may set back the global COVID-19 response. The ability to rapidly assess the threat of new variants in real-time is critical for timely optimisation of control strategies. We extend the EpiEstim R package, designed to estimate the time-varying reproduction number (Rt), to estimate in real-time the e ective transmission advantage of a new variant compared to a reference variant. Our method can combine information across multiple locations and over time and was validated using an extensive simulation study, designed to mimic a variety of real-time epidemic contexts. We estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant is 1.46 (95% Credible Interval 1.44-1.47) and 1.29, (95% CrI 1.29-1.30) times more transmissible than the wild type, using data from England and France respectively. We further estimate that Beta and Gamma combined are 1.25 (95% CrI 1.24-1.27) times more transmissible than the wildtype (France data). All results are in line with previous estimates from literature, but could have been obtained earlier and more easily with our o -the-shelf open-source tool. Our tool can be used as an important rst step towards quantifying the threat of new variants in real-time. Given the popularity of EpiEstim, this extension will likely be used widely to monitor the co-circulation and/or emergence of multiple variants of infectious pathogens

Integrability of graph combinatorics via random walks and heaps of dimers

We investigate the integrability of the discrete non-linear equation governing the dependence on geodesic distance of planar graphs with inner vertices of even valences. This equation follows from a bijection between graphs and blossom trees and is expressed in terms of generating functions for random walks. We construct explicitly an infinite set of conserved quantities for this equation, also involving suitable combinations of random walk generating functions. The proof of their conservation, i.e. their eventual independence on the geodesic distance, relies on the connection between random walks and heaps of dimers. The values of the conserved quantities are identified with generating functions for graphs with fixed numbers of external legs. Alternative equivalent choices for the set of conserved quantities are also discussed and some applications are presented.Comment: 38 pages, 15 figures, uses epsf, lanlmac and hyperbasic

Access to Dental Services among Hypertensive Elderly in Peru: Exploring Patterns and Implications

Background: This study was conducted to determine access to dental services in the elderly with hypertension in Peru. Methods: Observational, analytical, and cross-sectional design. Data used for analysis in this research was collected from the Demographic and Family Health Survey of Peru (ENDES) from 2019 to 2021. Results: A Poisson regression analysis was performed a weighted sample for calculating prevalence ratio (PR) with their 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). The multiple regression analysis did not find among the factors associated with the probability of using the dental health service, since neither the time less than two years of hypertension (PR=0.74, 95%CI 0.53 – 1.02); nor from 2 to 4 years (PR = 0.97, CI 95% 0.86 – 1.09); neither a time of hypertension from 5 years or more (PR = 0.94, CI 95% 0.85 – 1.03) were associated. Conclusion: The study concluded that hypertensive patient over 60 years of age, despite a previous diagnosis of hypertension or not, does not attend dental service, reflecting a lack of interest and a greater risk exposure to cardiovascular complications associated with oral health

Distance statistics in large toroidal maps

We compute a number of distance-dependent universal scaling functions characterizing the distance statistics of large maps of genus one. In particular, we obtain explicitly the probability distribution for the length of the shortest non-contractible loop passing via a random point in the map, and that for the distance between two random points. Our results are derived in the context of bipartite toroidal quadrangulations, using their coding by well-labeled 1-trees, which are maps of genus one with a single face and appropriate integer vertex labels. Within this framework, the distributions above are simply obtained as scaling limits of appropriate generating functions for well-labeled 1-trees, all expressible in terms of a small number of basic scaling functions for well-labeled plane trees.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, minor corrections, new added reference

Combinatorics of bicubic maps with hard particles

We present a purely combinatorial solution of the problem of enumerating planar bicubic maps with hard particles. This is done by use of a bijection with a particular class of blossom trees with particles, obtained by an appropriate cutting of the maps. Although these trees have no simple local characterization, we prove that their enumeration may be performed upon introducing a larger class of "admissible" trees with possibly doubly-occupied edges and summing them with appropriate signed weights. The proof relies on an extension of the cutting procedure allowing for the presence on the maps of special non-sectile edges. The admissible trees are characterized by simple local rules, allowing eventually for an exact enumeration of planar bicubic maps with hard particles. We also discuss generalizations for maps with particles subject to more general exclusion rules and show how to re-derive the enumeration of quartic maps with Ising spins in the present framework of admissible trees. We finally comment on a possible interpretation in terms of branching processes.Comment: 41 pages, 19 figures, tex, lanlmac, hyperbasics, epsf. Introduction and discussion/conclusion extended, minor corrections, references adde