Vaccinations, infections and antibacterials in the first grass pollen season of life and risk of later hayfever

Published source: Bremner, S. A., Carey, I. M., DeWilde, S., Richards, N., Maier, W. C., Hilton, S. R., Strachan, D. P. and Cook, D. G. (2007), Vaccinations, infections and antibacterials in the first grass pollen season of life and risk of later hayfever. Clinical & Experimental Allergy, 37: 512–517. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2222.2007.02697.

Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Choice of outcomes and measurement instruments in randomised trials on eLearning in medical education: A systematic mapping review protocol

Background: There will be a lack of 18 million healthcare workers by 2030. Multiplying the number of well-trained healthcare workers through innovative ways such as eLearning is highly recommended in solving this shortage. However, high heterogeneity of learning outcomes in eLearning systematic reviews reveals a lack of consistency and agreement on core learning outcomes in eLearning for medical education. In addition, there seems to be a lack of validity evidence for measurement instruments used in these trials. This undermines the credibility of these outcome measures and affects the ability to draw accurate and meaningful conclusions. The aim of this research is to address this issue by determining the choice of outcomes, measurement instruments and the prevalence of measurement instruments with validity evidence in randomised trials on eLearning for pre-registration medical education. Methods: We will conduct a systematic mapping and review to identify the types of outcomes, the kinds of measurement instruments and the prevalence of validity evidence among measurement instruments in eLearning randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in pre-registration medical education. The search period will be from January 1990 until August 2017. We will consider studies on eLearning for health professionals' education. Two reviewers will extract and manage data independently from the included studies. Data will be analysed and synthesised according to the aim of the review. Discussion: Appropriate choice of outcomes and measurement tools is essential for ensuring high-quality research in the field of eLearning and eHealth. The results of this study could have positive implications for other eHealth interventions, including (1) improving quality and credibility of eLearning research, (2) enhancing the quality of digital medical education and (3) informing researchers, academics and curriculum developers about the types of outcomes and validity evidence for measurement instruments used in eLearning studies. The protocol aspires to assist in the advancement of the eLearning research field as well as in the development of high-quality healthcare professionals' digital education. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD4201706842

Using Bayesian networks to guide the assessment of new evidence in an appeal case.

When new forensic evidence becomes available after a conviction there is no systematic framework to help lawyers to determine whether it raises sufficient questions about the verdict in order to launch an appeal. This paper presents such a framework driven by a recent case, in which a defendant was convicted primarily on the basis of audio evidence, but where subsequent analysis of the evidence revealed additional sounds that were not considered during the trial. The framework is intended to overcome the gap between what is generally known from scientific analyses and what is hypothesized in a legal setting. It is based on Bayesian networks (BNs) which have the potential to be a structured and understandable way to evaluate the evidence in a specific case context. However, BN methods suffered a setback with regards to the use in court due to the confusing way they have been used in some legal cases in the past. To address this concern, we show the extent to which the reasoning and decisions within the particular case can be made explicit and transparent. The BN approach enables us to clearly define the relevant propositions and evidence, and uses sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of the evidence under different assumptions. The results show that such a framework is suitable to identify information that is currently missing, yet clearly crucial for a valid and complete reasoning process. Furthermore, a method is provided whereby BNs can serve as a guide to not only reason with incomplete evidence in forensic cases, but also identify very specific research questions that should be addressed to extend the evidence base and solve similar issues in the future.This research was funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of the UK through the Security Science Doctoral Research Training Centre (UCL SECReT) based at University College London (EP/G037264/1), and the European Research Council (ERC-2013-AdG339182-BAYES_KNOWLEDGE)

Envelope Determinants of Equine Lentiviral Vaccine Protection

Lentiviral envelope (Env) antigenic variation and associated immune evasion present major obstacles to vaccine development. The concept that Env is a critical determinant for vaccine efficacy is well accepted, however defined correlates of protection associated with Env variation have yet to be determined. We reported an attenuated equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) vaccine study that directly examined the effect of lentiviral Env sequence variation on vaccine efficacy. The study identified a significant, inverse, linear correlation between vaccine efficacy and increasing divergence of the challenge virus Env gp90 protein compared to the vaccine virus gp90. The report demonstrated approximately 100% protection of immunized ponies from disease after challenge by virus with a homologous gp90 (EV0), and roughly 40% protection against challenge by virus (EV13) with a gp90 13% divergent from the vaccine strain. In the current study we examine whether the protection observed when challenging with the EV0 strain could be conferred to animals via chimeric challenge viruses between the EV0 and EV13 strains, allowing for mapping of protection to specific Env sequences. Viruses containing the EV13 proviral backbone and selected domains of the EV0 gp90 were constructed and in vitro and in vivo infectivity examined. Vaccine efficacy studies indicated that homology between the vaccine strain gp90 and the N-terminus of the challenge strain gp90 was capable of inducing immunity that resulted in significantly lower levels of post-challenge virus and significantly delayed the onset of disease. However, a homologous N-terminal region alone inserted in the EV13 backbone could not impart the 100% protection observed with the EV0 strain. Data presented here denote the complicated and potentially contradictory relationship between in vitro virulence and in vivo pathogenicity. The study highlights the importance of structural conformation for immunogens and emphasizes the need for antibody binding, not neutralizing, assays that correlate with vaccine protection. © 2013 Craigo et al

Prenatal stress and subsequent exposure to chronic mild stress influence dendritic spine density and morphology in the rat medial prefrontal cortex

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Both prenatal stress (PS) and postnatal chronic mild stress (CMS) are associated with behavioral and mood disturbances in humans and rodents. The aim of this study was to reveal putative PS- and/or CMS-related changes in basal spine morphology and density of pyramidal neurons in the rat medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We show that rats exposed to PS and/or CMS display changes in the morphology and number of basal spines on pyramidal neurons in the mPFC. CMS had a negative effect on spine densities, particularly on spines of the mushroom type, which are considered to form stronger and more stable synapses than other spine types. PS alone did not affect spine densities, but had a negative effect on the ratio of mushroom spines. In addition, PS seemed to make rats less responsive to some of the negative effects of CMS, which supports the notion that PS represents a predictive adaptive response.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The observed changes may represent a morphological basis of PS- and CMS-related disturbances, and future studies in the field should not only consider total spine densities, but also separate between different spine types.</p

Incidence of the Beet Leafhopper-Transmitted Virescence Agent Phytoplasma in local Populations of the Beet Leafhopper, Circulifer tenellus, in Washington State

Phytoplasma diseases are increasingly becoming important in vegetable crops in the Pacific Northwest. Recently, growers in the Columbia Basin and Yakima Valley experienced serious outbreaks of potato purple top disease that caused significant yield loss and a reduction in tuber processing quality. It was determined that the beet leafhopper-transmitted virescence agent (BLTVA) phytoplasma was the causal agent of the disease in the area and that this pathogen was transmitted by the beet leafhopper, Circulifer tenellus Baker (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae). To provide the most effective management of phytoplasmas, timing of insecticide applications targeted against insects vectoring these pathogens should be correlated with both insect abundance and infectivity. Beet leafhoppers were collected from a potato field and nearby weeds in Washington throughout the 2005, 2006, and 2007 growing seasons and tested for BLTVA by PCR to determine the incidence of this phytoplasma in the insects. In addition, overwintering beet leafhoppers were collected throughout Columbia Basin and Yakima Valley and tested for BLTVA to investigate if these insects might constitute a source of inoculum for this phytoplasma from one season to the next. Results showed that 29.6% of overwintering leafhoppers collected near potato fields carried the phytoplasma. BLTVA-infected leafhoppers were also found in both potatoes and nearby weedy habitats throughout the growing season. PCR testing indicated that a large proportion of beet leafhoppers invading potatoes were infected with the phytoplasma, with an average of 20.8, 34.8, and 9.2% in 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively. Similarly, BLTVA infection rate in leafhoppers collected from weeds in the vicinity of potatoes averaged 28.3, 24.5, and 5.6% in 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively. Information from this study will help develop action thresholds for beet leafhopper control to reduce incidence of purple top disease in potatoes