Incorporating Nuisance Parameters in Likelihoods for Multisource Spectra

We describe here the general mathematical approach to constructing likelihoods for fitting observed spectra in one or more dimensions with multiple sources, including the effects of systematic uncertainties represented as nuisance parameters, when the likelihood is to be maximized with respect to these parameters. We consider three types of nuisance parameters: simple multiplicative factors, source spectra "morphing" parameters, and parameters representing statistical uncertainties in the predicted source spectra.Comment: Presented at PHYSTAT 2011, CERN, Geneva, Switzerland, January 2011, to be published in a CERN Yellow Repor

Senior Tax Breaks on the Move—but Are Seniors Actually Moving?

Every state in the United States with an income tax offers some kind of tax break to its older citizens. These breaks are often sizable, resulting in an elderly household owing substantially less in income taxes than a non-elderly household with the same income. In this brief, author Karen Smith Conway examines these state income tax breaks for the elderly, describing how they work, their distributional and revenue effects, and whether these policies affect migration. She reports that existing state income tax breaks for the elderly result in non-trivial reductions in state revenue and offer little relief to the most vulnerable elderly. Data on interstate migration yield little evidence that these tax breaks pay for themselves by inducing the elderly to remain in or move to the state. Proposed additional tax breaks would primarily benefit high-income elderly households, while the existing breaks primarily benefit middle- and high-income elderly households

Reducing hospital associated infection : a role for social marketing

Purpose: Although hand hygiene is seen as the most important method to prevent the transmission of hospital associated infection in the UK, hand hygiene compliance rates appear to remain poor. This research aims to assess the degree to which social marketing methodology can be adopted by a particular organization to promote hand hygiene compliance. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research design is based on a conceptual framework developed from analysis of social marketing literature. Data collection involved taped interviews given by nursing staff working within a specific Hospital Directorate in Manchester, England. Supplementary data was obtained from archival records of the hand hygiene compliance rates. Findings: Findings highlighted gaps in the Directorate’s approach to the promotion of hand hygiene compared to what could be using social marketing methodology. Respondents highlighted how the Directorate failed to fully optimise resources required to endorse hand hygiene practice and this resulted in poorer compliance. Originality/Value: From the experiences and events documented, the study suggests how the emergent phenomena could be utilized by the Directorate to apply a social marketing approach which could positively influence hand hygiene compliance

Deprivation as an outcome determinant in emergency medical admissions

Background: Deprivation in the general population predicts mortality. We have investigated its relevance to an acute medical admission, using a database of all emergency admissions to St James’ Hospital, Dublin, over a ten year period (2002-2011). <p/>Methods: All emergency admissions, based on geocoding of residence, were allocated to a Small Area Health Research Unit (SAHRU) division, with a corresponding deprivation index. We then examined this index as a univariate (unadjusted) and independent (adjusted) predictor of 30-day in-hospital mortality. <p/>Results: The 30-day in-hospital mortality, over the 10 year period was higher, for those in the upper half of the deprivation distribution (9.6% vs 8.6%: p = 0.002). Indeed, there was a stepwise increase in 30-day mortality over the quintiles of deprivation from 7.3% (Quintile 1) to 8.8%, 10.0%, 10.0% and 9.3% respectively. Univariate logistic regression of the deprivation indices (quintiles) against outcome showed an increased risk (p = 0.002) of a 30-day death with OR’s respectively (compared with lowest deprivation quintile) of 1.23 (95% CI 1.07, 1.40), 1.41 (95% CI 1.24, 1.60), 1.41 (95% CI 1.24, 1.61) and 1.30 (95% CI 1.14, 1.48). The deprivation index was an independent predictor of outcome in a model when adjusted for illness severity and co-morbidity. The fully adjusted OR for a 30-day death was increased by 31% (p=0.001) for patients in the upper half of the deprivation index distribution (OR 1.31: 95% CI 1.20, 1.44). <p/>Conclusion: Deprivation independently of co-morbidity or acute illness severity is a powerful outcome predictor in acute medical admissions

Hand movement analysis of the elderly when using a remote control

The aim of the this project is to study the ability of older subjects to perform basic remote control manipulations and also to specify the minimal functional requirements to perform this activity of daily living